Today's Football

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

[spreadbetting]

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

I was letting the bets run as it was a value entry point experiment. Also, I'm a LOOONG way from paying PC. You said it yourself, finding something that works consistently is a slog

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored

Not quite. From memory, I got 1 bet matched every 4-5 games.

Don't be too complacent about PC, the best time to prepare for it is before you pay it, not after. In my experience once you hit those winning ideas the money will just pour in, it's never some gradual increase.

I'm surprised you were only getting 1 in 4/5 bets matched, I'd have assumed the odds would drop 10 ticks in those 10 minutes. I used to have a spreadsheet calculating the odds decay overtime a bit like BA's football trader(?) in order to scalp in the more active parts of a match but can't seem to locate it and far too much hassle to recreate it.

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

[jimibt]

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

no -i didn't express that very well, i was referring to the historical graph with the two spikes (a flat scottish joke alas!!). would love to be that good mind you, would make all this tracking of odds and related markets all the easier!

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

[Almanac]

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

no -i didn't express that very well, i was referring to the historical graph with the two spikes (a flat scottish joke alas!!). would love to be that good mind you, would make all this tracking of odds and related markets all the easier!

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Thanks, will have a look.
Just feel that the market behaviour after the 2nd goal to be slightly suspicious to say the least!

[northbound]

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Not sure, the stats tell me that the dog had the best of possession and dangerous attacks so far. Wouldn’t oppose them until I see a switch in momentum.

[jimibt]

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Not sure, the stats tell me that the dog had the best of possession and dangerous attacks so far. Wouldn’t oppose them until I see a switch in momentum.

tbh - i was basing this on a wider sta (ALTHO MORE PREMIER LEAUGE RELATED), where the dog scoring inside 20 mins results in a 80% reversal of fortunes with a 2-1 or more finish. maybe bot approoriate for this game but is the balance between ip stats and wider ranging views.

[northbound]

tbh - i was basing this on a wider sta (ALTHO MORE PREMIER LEAUGE RELATED), where the dog scoring inside 20 mins results in a 80% reversal of fortunes with a 2-1 or more finish. maybe bot approoriate for this game but is the balance between ip stats and wider ranging views.

Yep, I have to say that after my comment the favs (Wisla Plock) finished the first half well, with also 2 shots on target.

So, come 90min your angle might prove correct.

[northbound]

There you go, they just equalised

[jimibt]

tbh - i was basing this on a wider sta (ALTHO MORE PREMIER LEAUGE RELATED), where the dog scoring inside 20 mins results in a 80% reversal of fortunes with a 2-1 or more finish. maybe bot approoriate for this game but is the balance between ip stats and wider ranging views.

Yep, I have to say that after my comment the favs (Wisla Plock) finished the first half well, with also 2 shots on target.

So, come 90min your angle might prove correct.

a better angle (tbh) was to get onto the OU2.5 at a point where the odds dropped below 2.25 ish (and score still 1-0)... MO is a bit fickle - goals are truth Tho of course, the idea is to exit on a trade here, rather than odds expiry. so the equaliser just after the second half did it - in terms of the intention..

[Trader Pat]

Looks like Betfair are geting nervous about that free €1 pick six they gave me

[Kafkaesque]

Jose full of excuses again. Playing two right backs in the starting 11, while leaving your club captain RB on the bench, along with your - at the time - World record fee signing, plus your 50m+ summer signing not even making the bench speaks to a manager completely losing the plot. Will be some interesting prices over the xmas period on United's matches. Be it to trust that the mayhem will continue and going against them, or that there's an overreaction against them, it should be good

[Almanac]

Aldershot to send a team of academy players to play their FA Trophy match with Bedford this evening.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46595230
Bedford Town shorten from a high of 3.75 to as low as 1.49.
60k matched so far, 13k @ 1.6
Need to get stuck in to automation and alert set-ups in the new year!