Ligue 1 in games where home team open the scoring in 11-20 minutes time band

[jonnyg]

1-1 3-0 1-0 4-2 3-0 1-1 3-2 4-0 2-1 3-1 2-0 1-1 1-1


T HT FT
Metz Guingamp 12 1 0 2 2
Nantes Mont 12 1 0 1 0
Caen Metz 20 1 0 3 0
Mont Bordeaux 13 2 0 4 0
Toulouse Mont 19 1 0 1 0
Lille Caen 13 2 1 4 2
Nice Bastia 11 1 0 1 1
Angers St Et. 18 1 0 1 2
Metz Lorient 11 1 1 3 3
PSG Nantes 13 1 0 2 0
Marseille Metz 13 1 0 1 0
Lorient Mont 16 2 1 2 2
Marseille Metz 13 1 0 1 0
Nice Lorient 11 1 0 2 1
Nantes Bastia 18 1 0 1 0
Angers Caen 12 1 0 2 1
Nice Monaco 17 2 0 4 0
PSG Dijon 15 2 0 3 0
Bastia Toulouse 20 1 0 2 1
Monaco PSG 13 2 0 3 1
Marseille Lorient 19 1 0 2 0
Bordeaux St Et. 13 1 0 3 2
Reims Lyon 14 2 0 4 1
PSG Nantes 17 2 0 4 0
Angers Toulouse 12 1 0 2 3
Caen Bordeaux 14 1 0 1 0
Bordeaux Lorient 12 2 0 3 0
Monaco Guingamp 17 2 0 3 2
Mont Troyes 13 3 1 4 1
Nice Reims 11 1 0 2 0
PSG Caen 12 2 0 6 0
Reims Nantes 11 1 0 2 1
Rennes Reims 12 2 0 3 1
PSG Nice 15 2 1 4 1
Nice Gazalec 14 1 0 3 0
Angers Lorient 14 3 1 5 1
Lille Toulouse 17 1 0 1 0
Nice Troyes 12 1 1 2 1
Lyon PSG 13 2 0 2 1
PSG Reims 12 3 1 4 1
Nantes Gazalec 14 2 1 3 1
Caen Nice 12 2 0 2 0
Lorient Reims 15 1 0 2 0
Angers Monaco 19 2 0 3 0
Reims Toulouse 12 1 0 1 3
Lyon Troyes 18 1 0 4 1




how does the time of the opening goal in an individual league effect accuracy and as a result expectation of a draw because if you look at the above profile in ligue 1 = expectation of acceleration of goal production = lowered expectation of a draw < the draw in the sample above is a rare event

[jonnyg]

last 59 games in ligue 1 where the home team opened the scoring in the 11-20 time band

48-8 -3

with 66% over 2.5 goals


Home wins : 50% Over 1.5 goals : 72%
Draws : 25% Over 2.5 goals : 47%
Away wins : 24% Over 3.5 goals : 26%
Goals : 717 Goals p. match (Home) : 1.53
Goals p. match : 2.57 Goals p. match (Away) : 1.04
Both teams scored : 46%


if we look above < In all games this season in ligue 1 only 47% ended over 2.5


key point < academics looked at why there are so many draws in football and concluded that the reason is because so many games going > 1-1 = teams fighting back


THAT conclusion is FLAWED = rubbish


the actual reason is because in general football produces a low goal production < BUT now look at the early goal metric and in general you will see acceleration of goal production = Eurekkkkkkka ?????

[jonnyg]

if you are laying the draw in a game because you are hoping you can back at a bigger price < dont do it > I can offer a much more sophisticated approach for free in play with a 100% money back guarantee

[jonnyg]

Bayer Leverkusen
1 - 4
Schalke 04 View events More info
0 - 1
6' G. Burgstaller
0 - 2
10' B. Höwedes
0 - 3
18' A. Schöpf
0 - 4
50' G. Burgstaller
S. Kießling 69'
1 - 4


Bochum
4 - 2
Dynamo Dresden View events More info
0 - 1
7' N. Hauptmann
0 - 2
25' A. Gogia
T. Eisfeld 50'
1 - 2
M. Stiepermann 51'
2 - 2
A. Losilla 70'
3 - 2
G. Sağlam 88 goal '
4 - 2


Angers SCO
1 - 2
Olympique Lyonnais View events More info
0 - 1
17' M. Valbuena
0 - 2
41' N. Fekir
C. N'Doye 49'
1 - 2


Niort
0 - 3
Reims View events More info
0 - 1
12' P. Chavarría (PG)
0 - 2
39' Danilson
0 - 3
49' Danilson

Orléans
4 - 0
Red Star View events More info
A. Gomis 3'
1 - 0
B. Youssouf 37'
2 - 0
A. Gomis 55'
3 - 0
A. Gomis 63'
4 - 0


Tours
3 - 0
Clermont View events More info
F. Diarra 3'
1 - 0
Denis Bouanga 44'
2 - 0
Denis Bouanga 90 goal '
3 - 0




Kapfenberger SV
2 - 3
Austria Lustenau View events More info
0 - 1
13' D. Sobkova
S. Meusburger 47'
1 - 1
F. Flecker 65'
2 - 1
2 - 2
72' J. Wießmeier
2 - 3
80' goal J. Wießmeier


Cambuur
4 - 1
Eindhoven View events More info
J. Hoefdraad 8'
1 - 0
E. Bakker (PG) 19'
2 - 0
S. van de Streek 41'
3 - 0
3 - 1
46' M. Lieder
S. Lilipaly 51'
4 - 1

NAC Breda
4 - 1
Oss View events More info
0 - 1
9' R. van der Venne
C. Dessers 63'
1 - 1
G. Korte 69'
2 - 1
M. El Allouchi 71'
3 - 1
G. Korte 81 goal '
4 - 1


Volendam
3 - 1
MVV View events More info
E. Stroo 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
9' P. N'Koyi
K. Kwakman 59'
2 - 1
K. van Kippersluis (PG) 87 goal '
3 - 1

VVV
1 - 4
Ajax II View events More info
0 - 1
10' M. Cassierra
0 - 2
21' K. Tete
0 - 3
22' David Neres
C. Leemans (PG) 51'
1 - 3
1 - 4
65' V. Černý



If you look above at the 11 games last night in Bundesliga 1 and 2 , Ligue 1 and 2, Erste and Jupiler were the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 time band / the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band


100% ended over 2.5 goals

and the key point is that 0% ended a draw < because you are very likely laying the draw in games before they start LTD when it is the time of the opening goal which is crucial in the determination of expectation of a draw / lack of expectation of a draw

[jonnyg]

this is a terrible idea in terms of a model < the reason why < if you get caught by an early goal < you will be in brown pants <

here are the 11 early goal games last night

Bayer Leverkusen
1 - 4
Schalke 04 View events More info
0 - 1
6' G. Burgstaller
0 - 2
10' B. Höwedes
0 - 3
18' A. Schöpf
0 - 4
50' G. Burgstaller
S. Kießling 69'
1 - 4


Bochum
4 - 2
Dynamo Dresden View events More info
0 - 1
7' N. Hauptmann
0 - 2
25' A. Gogia
T. Eisfeld 50'
1 - 2
M. Stiepermann 51'
2 - 2
A. Losilla 70'
3 - 2
G. Sağlam 88 goal '
4 - 2


Angers SCO
1 - 2
Olympique Lyonnais View events More info
0 - 1
17' M. Valbuena
0 - 2
41' N. Fekir
C. N'Doye 49'
1 - 2


Niort
0 - 3
Reims View events More info
0 - 1
12' P. Chavarría (PG)
0 - 2
39' Danilson
0 - 3
49' Danilson

Orléans
4 - 0
Red Star View events More info
A. Gomis 3'
1 - 0
B. Youssouf 37'
2 - 0
A. Gomis 55'
3 - 0
A. Gomis 63'
4 - 0


Tours
3 - 0
Clermont View events More info
F. Diarra 3'
1 - 0
Denis Bouanga 44'
2 - 0
Denis Bouanga 90 goal '
3 - 0




Kapfenberger SV
2 - 3
Austria Lustenau View events More info
0 - 1
13' D. Sobkova
S. Meusburger 47'
1 - 1
F. Flecker 65'
2 - 1
2 - 2
72' J. Wießmeier
2 - 3
80' goal J. Wießmeier


Cambuur
4 - 1
Eindhoven View events More info
J. Hoefdraad 8'
1 - 0
E. Bakker (PG) 19'
2 - 0
S. van de Streek 41'
3 - 0
3 - 1
46' M. Lieder
S. Lilipaly 51'
4 - 1

NAC Breda
4 - 1
Oss View events More info
0 - 1
9' R. van der Venne
C. Dessers 63'
1 - 1
G. Korte 69'
2 - 1
M. El Allouchi 71'
3 - 1
G. Korte 81 goal '
4 - 1


Volendam
3 - 1
MVV View events More info
E. Stroo 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
9' P. N'Koyi
K. Kwakman 59'
2 - 1
K. van Kippersluis (PG) 87 goal '
3 - 1

VVV
1 - 4
Ajax II View events More info
0 - 1
10' M. Cassierra
0 - 2
21' K. Tete
0 - 3
22' David Neres
C. Leemans (PG) 51'
1 - 3
1 - 4
65' V. Černý


If you look above at the 11 games in Bundesliga 1 and 2 , Ligue 1 and 2, Erste and Jupiler were the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 time band / the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band


100% ended over 2.5 goals

and the key point is that 0% ended a draw < because you are very likely laying the draw in games before they start LTD when it is the time of the opening goal which is crucial in the determination of expectation of a draw / lack of expectation of a draw



you should be looking to trade around the time of the opening goal < backing under 2.5 goals at the point of the game starting is a dangerous idea and waiting for the opening goal is far more sophisticated

[jonnyg]

the 2 weak strategies which have been around for years are

1. LTD before a game starts

2. backing under 2.5 goals as the game starts

[bevsy]

So back unders when an early goal is scored is better than backing it before the start?

[jonnyg]

[jonnyg]

So back unders when an early goal is scored is better than backing it before the start?

in games where there is an early goal event < you should be looking in general at expectation of acceleration of goal production so backing under 2.5 goals after an early goal is a suicide trade as in this profile a quick response will be far more likely then in a game with no early goal event