Championship 0-1 HT added to the early away goal < game pathway analysis

[jonnyg]

In the table below I have added the last 180 games in the Championship where the away team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 44% ended over 2.5 goals

Game Pathway

0-1 FT<> 39/180

> 1-1 <> 86/180

> 0-2 <> 55/180

> 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then > 0-2 pathway and as a result we will see some draw bias in this profile.

21-51-108 < the away teams won 60% and 28% ended a draw.

Both teams scored in 62%

In games in the table below where there was a home fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > 1-3 1-2 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-5 1-3 2-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-1 3-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-2 2-2 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 5-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-3 2-2 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 2-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 < 67% ended over 2.5 goals 16-28-14 < 48% ended a draw > no home bias

The away teams won the second half of the games in the table below in only 21% for the simple reason that in this profile in the Championship > the pathway > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2 and if the game does > 0-2 pathway then we will see lowered expectation of the game ending 0-2 ( 11% of the games in the table below ended 0-2 )

Summary

How does the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state ) effect accuracy as time decays in a game ?

In the Championship in games that are 0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric and there will be lowered expectation of the away team winning the second half and the most likely full time outcome in this profile will be 0-1,1-1 and 1-2

T HT FT T+1 T+2
Forest Brentford 17 0 1 2 3 A55 A68
Fulham Leeds 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Birmingham Wigan 19 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 14 0 1 1 3 H63 A67
Barnsley Hudd 18 0 1 1 1 H75
Bristol City Fulham 17 0 1 0 2 A54
Birmingham QPR 18 0 1 1 4 A47 A84
Preston Ipswich 16 0 1 1 1 H89
QPR Burton 11 0 1 1 2 A52 H63
Brentford Newcastle 20 0 1 1 2 H52 A79
Blackburn Brighton 16 0 1 2 3 A61 H66
Cardiff Wolves 2 0 1 2 1 H68 H86
Wigan Derby 16 0 1 0 1
Brentford Birmingham 14 0 1 1 2 A63 H77
Brighton Fulham 18 0 1 2 1 H52 H79
Fulham Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H90
Brighton Preston 10 0 1 2 2 H54 H65
Wolves Norwich 2 0 1 1 2 A73 H80
Fulham QPR 20 0 1 1 2 H47 A87
Fulham Bristol City 10 0 1 0 4 A60 A68
Derby Newcastle 20 0 1 0 2 A90
Bristol City Villa 5 0 1 3 1 H59 H61
Bristol City Newcastle 19 0 1 0 1
Hudds Brentford 1 0 1 1 5 H50 A52
Charlton Burnley 20 0 1 0 3 A49 A51
Rotherham Blackburn 6 0 1 0 1
Charlton Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H51 A55
Cardiff Bolton 7 0 1 2 1 H55 H90
Preston Burnley 6 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 11 0 1 1 2 A50 H53
Bristol City Rotherham 12 0 1 1 1 H54
Preston Fulham 5 0 1 1 2 H63 A74
Preston QPR 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Hudds Ipswich 19 0 1 0 1
Forest Hudds 14 0 1 0 2 A84
Wolves Preston 17 0 1 1 2 A53 H66
Wed Burnley 3 0 1 1 1 H48
Reading Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H74
Blackburn Brighton 3 0 1 0 1
ipswich Leeds 1 0 1 2 1 H50 H90
MK Dons Burnley 14 0 1 0 5 A46 A64
Reading Brentford 17 0 1 1 2 H58 A72
MK Dons Ipswich 10 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Hudds 1 0 1 0 2 A81
Bolton Brentford 10 0 1 1 1 H65
Fulham Preston 11 0 1 1 1 H77
Hudds Boro 9 0 1 0 2 A84
MK Dons Hull 19 0 1 0 2 A90
Birmingham Wolves 11 0 1 0 2 A84
Fulham Reading 13 0 1 4 2 A49 H50
Wolves Brentford 17 0 1 0 2 A88
Bolton Birmingham 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Bristol City 17 0 1 2 1 H53 H82
Rotherham Burnley 9 0 1 1 2 H75 A81
Brentford Preston 1 0 1 2 1 H62 H65
QPR Blackburn 14 0 1 2 2 H46 A60
Cardiff Hull 8 0 1 0 2 A80
Boro Bristol City 8 0 1 0 1
Huddersfield Brighton 1 0 1 1 1 H54
Derby Boro 16 0 1 1 1 H88
Blackburn Cardiff 5 0 1 1 1 H88
Burnley Birmingham 10 0 1 2 2 H51 A63
Derby Reading 2 0 1 0 3 A72 A85
Reading Brentford 7 0 1 0 2 A65
Blackpool Fulham 8 0 1 0 1
Norwich Boro 9 0 1 0 1
Fulham Rotherham 4 0 1 1 1 H67
Reading Bournemouth 4 0 1 0 1
Bolton Charlton 9 0 1 1 1 H80
Birmingham Blackburn 8 0 1 2 2 H64 A68
Bolton Blackpool 9 0 1 1 1 H90
Huddersfield Fulham 2 0 1 0 2 A90
Cardiff Bournemouth 16 0 1 1 1 H62
Norwich Wigan 8 0 1 0 1
Rotherham Millwall 20 0 1 2 1 H47 H85
Wigan Cardiff 20 0 1 0 1
Derby Sheff Wed 20 0 1 3 2 H46 A55
Ipswich Reading 14 0 1 0 1
Boro Leeds 3 0 1 0 1
Reading Wigam 17 0 1 0 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 0 1 2 1 H51 H66
Huddersfield Wolves 11 0 1 1 4 A46 A60
Sheff Wed Cardiff 7 0 1 1 1 H75
Wigan Blackburn 15 0 1 1 1 H63
Leeds Birmingham 8 0 1 1 1 H86
Bolton Leeds 2 0 1 1 1 H48
Leeds Wigan 11 0 1 0 2 A83
Charlton Cardiff 12 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Charton 10 0 1 1 1 H69
Wigan Norwich 5 0 1 0 1
Brighton Millwall 15 0 1 0 1
Wolves Brighton 10 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Norwich 16 0 1 2 1 H85 H90
Watford Cardiff 12 0 1 0 1
Wigan ipswich 20 0 1 1 2 A63 H82
Forest Ipswich 20 0 1 2 2 H63 A71
Birmingham Bolton 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Brough 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Brentford Birmingham 16 0 1 1 1 H79
Brighton Charlton 4 0 1 2 2 H67 A75
Boro Reading 7 0 1 0 1
Cardiff Boro 2 0 1 0 1
Fulham Wolves 15 0 1 0 1
Fulham Millwall 12 0 1 0 1
Leeds Brighton 5 0 1 0 2 A84
Leeds Derby 6 0 1 1 1 H50
Birmingham Wigan 3 0 1 0 1
Barnsley Leeds 16 0 1 0 1
Millwall Watford 17 0 1 2 2 H64 A86
Barnsley Burnley 7 0 1 0 1
Blackpool Yeovil 16 0 1 1 2 A74 H78
QPR Blackpool 11 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Forest 4 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Derby 1 0 1 2 1 H68 H90
Bolton Brighton 14 0 1 0 2 A65
Birmingham QPR 14 0 1 0 2 A73
Reading Yeovil 20 0 1 1 1 H69
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 0 1 1 2 A60 H90
Millwall Bolton 15 0 1 1 1 H82
Reading Sheff Wed 10 0 1 0 2 A58
Wigan Charlton 4 0 1 2 1 H88 H90
Yeovil Burnley 19 0 1 1 2 A62 H80
Watford Reading 5 0 1 0 1
Millwall Leicester 6 0 1 1 3 A48 H68
Brighton Bournemouth 14 0 1 1 1 H89
Barnsley Derby 8 0 1 1 2 A49 H62
Derby Blackpool 3 0 1 5 1 H47 H53
Sheff Wed Huddersfield 11 0 1 1 2 A68 H90
Doncaster Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H75 A85
Watford Leicester 10 0 1 0 3 A53 A86
Brighton Watford 4 0 1 1 1 H55
Blackburn Charlton 7 0 1 0 1
Wigan Blackburn 8 0 1 2 1 H69 H90
Birmingham Bolton 12 0 1 1 2 A64 H69
Charlton Forest 3 0 1 1 1 H50
Forest Boro 17 0 1 2 2 A55 H69
Bolton Leeds 6 0 1 0 1
Watford Forest 6 0 1 1 1 H54
Birmingham Watford 11 0 1 0 1
Doncaster Blackpool 16 0 1 1 3 H60 A86
Huddersfield Barnsley 14 0 1 2 2 H53 A74
Millwall Forest 8 0 1 0 1
Wolves Burnley 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Cardiff Bolton 18 0 1 1 1 H68
Leeds Brighton 10 0 1 1 2 H73 A88
Sheff Wed ipswich 12 0 1 1 1 H58
Bristol City Birmingham 15 0 1 0 1
Bristol City Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 H49 A79
Leeds Peterbrough 15 0 1 1 1 H56
Huddersfield Charton 4 0 1 0 1
Watford Sheff Wed 18 0 1 2 1 H53 H63
Millwall Wolves 8 0 1 0 2 A61
Derby Palace 13 0 1 0 1
Wolves Cardiff 20 0 1 1 2 A67 H70
Leicester Charlton 19 0 1 1 2 H69 A78
Ipswich Waford 18 0 1 0 2 A72
Barnsley Wolves 7 0 1 2 1 H49 H73
Boro Barnsley 6 0 1 2 3 H50 H62
Millwall Hull 1 0 1 0 1
Peterborough Burnley 1 0 1 2 2 H65 H69
Palace Charlton 15 0 1 2 1 H74 H79
Millwall Burnley 19 0 1 0 2 A59
Blackpool Wolves 3 0 1 1 2 A72 H89
Blackburn Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 A61 H82
Derby Cardiff 11 0 1 1 1 H69
Ipswich Peterbrough 8 0 1 1 1 H60
Bristol City Charton 20 0 1 0 2 A56
Sheff Wed Blackpool 18 0 1 0 2 A83
Birmingham Ipswich 8 0 1 0 1
ipswich Sheff Wed 2 0 1 0 3 A58 A81
Barnsley Palace 11 0 1 1 1 H86
Barnsley ipswich 6 0 1 1 1 H73
Millwall Brighton 17 0 1 1 2 A50 H79
Blackburn Boro 7 0 1 1 2 A61 H89
Leicester Burnley 10 0 1 2 1 H47 H57
Burnley Brighton 18 0 1 1 3 H60 A77
Peterborough Leeds 7 0 1 1 2 A50 H73
Blackpool Leeds 16 0 1 2 1 H75 H80
ipswich Millwall 3 0 1 0 3 A63 A87
Southampton Reading 19 0 1 1 3 H48 A72

[jonnyg]

Continuing our series I have now taken a look at the Championship when the home side have conceded a goal between 0-20 minutes and the score at 20 minutes is 0-1

When comparing this to the Premier League and the MLS there are a number of interestring trends.

Firstly I would not be expercting a goal rush. If we look aty the Premier League and MLS over 3.5 goals was seen in 44% and 43% of the matches respectively. However, in the Championship this has only been seen in 34% of the matches.

Also to be noted that in less than 50% of the matches the home side scored next.

Another significant trend is that 27% of the matches finished level. This is quite a difference from 22% in both the Premier League & MLS < socdoc Response > if you look at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in the Championship you will see lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half which will result in some draw bias as < 1-1 pathway will be more likely then > 0-2 pathway.

When looking at the First half there are 4 sides that have recorded double figures on matches that recorded 2 goals in the first half. These are Ipswich with 13 from 22. Nottingham Forest with 18 from 25. Sheffield Wednesday with 13 from 18 and Huddersfield with 14 from 22.

If we remove these 4 sides then 2 or more goals in the first half has been seen in just under 43% of matches.

With Both teams scoring in 73% of the matches then after the 20 minute mark the stats suggest that the most probable outcome is either a 1-1 or 1-2 score line.

In summary if seeing an early away goal and the score is 0-1 after 20 minutes it may be worth trading the unders goal line.

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
Derby 20 7 4 9 1.25 10 7 3 12 13 7 9
Ipswich 22 7 4 11 1.14 12 9 1 15 15 7 13
Cardiff 12 3 4 5 1.08 8 3 1 9 7 3 5
N Forest 25 7 6 12 1.08 13 11 3 20 21 13 18
Norwich 4 1 1 2 1.00 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Fulham 16 3 7 6 1.00 8 6 2 13 10 7 7
QPR 9 2 3 4 1.00 6 3 0 8 7 5 6
Sheff Wed 18 4 6 8 1.00 10 7 1 17 13 7 13
Newcastle 1 0 1 0 1.00 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
Brighton 17 2 10 5 0.94 9 5 3 13 9 5 7
Blackburn 13 2 6 5 0.92 8 3 2 11 6 4 7
Preston 6 1 2 3 0.83 4 1 1 5 3 2 2
Wigan 9 2 1 6 0.78 4 2 3 5 5 1 2
Barnsley 16 2 5 9 0.69 8 6 2 12 9 4 8
Rotherham 5 1 0 4 0.60 2 2 1 4 4 1 2
Reading 15 2 3 10 0.60 6 7 2 8 7 2 6
Huddersfield 22 3 3 16 0.55 11 9 2 16 16 11 14
Bristol City 14 1 4 9 0.50 6 6 2 8 8 5 4
Brentford 8 1 1 6 0.50 4 4 0 8 7 3 4
Leeds 19 0 8 11 0.42 9 8 2 13 9 4 9
Birmingham 22 2 3 17 0.41 6 11 5 12 13 9 7
Wolves 11 1 1 9 0.36 4 7 0 8 8 2 5
A Villa 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Burton 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 304 54 83 167 149 119 38 220 193 105 151
Percentage 17.76 27.30 54.93 49.01 39.14 12.50 72.37 63.49 34.54 49.67
Odds 5.63 3.66 1.82 2.04 2.55 8.00 1.38 1.58 2.90 2.01



data excludes the Newcastle game at the weekend <

[jonnyg]

The mainstream to date have ignored the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of the effect on accuracy but I am confident in a few years that this area will be a key factor in the in play models

[jonnyg]

Last season in the Championship in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 63% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

The home teams won 16%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 60%

37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

0-1 half time goal 0-20 in the Championship this season , the away teams won 59%, 28% ended a draw and the home teams won 13%, 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in 28% ( higher then in previous seasons )



GAME PATHWAY

0-1 FT <> 7/94

> 1-1 53/94 56% <> 12-23-18 <> away teams won 34%

> 0-2 34/94 36% 3-0-31 <> away teams won 91%





2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games = 100 > 71% ended over 2.5 goals with 62% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 81% and the away teams won 55%, 26% ended a draw and 19% ended in a home win.

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games = 86 > 60% ended over 2.5 goals with 50% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 66% and the away teams won 59%, 26% ended a draw and 15% ended in a home win.

2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 38> 58% ended in an away win, 29% ended a draw and the home teams won 13% and 53% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 21%

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 43> 56% ended in an away win, 35% ended a draw and the home teams won 9% and 74% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the 2nd half in only 14%

[LinusP]

Thanks for the hints on this Cassini, it has inspired me to scrape the premier league website (the backend API is REST based and no limits )

I assume you are making money from this, if so why are you posting so many posts about it?

[jonnyg]

How do you exploit the information above ?

1. you should be looking at backing the home team on the asian handicap at HT ( 2nd half betting only ) in games 0-1 HT in the Championship with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band

2. in this profile in the Championship < when the away team score an early away goal < you should be looking to dutch the following correct scores <

0-1 1-1 1-2


< 0-2 will be a rare event <

[jonnyg]

the reason why I am giving everything away for free < is very simple < football data and analysis is only a hobby > I am a very happy retired chap

[kerberus]

Cassin, there is no need to feel embarrassed, you shoud be using a and a it's a great

[jonnyg]

last season in the Championship in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 63% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

The home teams won 16%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 60%

37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

0-1 half time goal 0-20 in the Championship this season , the away teams won 59%, 28% ended a draw and the home teams won 13%, 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in 28% ( higher then in previous seasons )



GAME PATHWAY

0-1 FT <> 7/94

> 1-1 53 /94 56% <> 12-23-18 <> away teams won 34%

> 0-2 34/94 36% 3-0-31 <> away teams won 91%





2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games = 100 > 71% ended over 2.5 goals with 62% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 81% and the away teams won 55%, 26% ended a draw and 19% ended in a home win.

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games = 86 > 60% ended over 2.5 goals with 50% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 66% and the away teams won 59%, 26% ended a draw and 15% ended in a home win.

2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 38> 58% ended in an away win, 29% ended a draw and the home teams won 13% and 53% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 21%

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 43> 56% ended in an away win, 35% ended a draw and the home teams won 9% and 74% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 14%

0-1 half time in the Championship added to the early away goal metric and lowered expectation of the away team winning the second half with some expectation of the home team fighting back but low expectation of the home team winning even if they are the perceived much stronger team.

[jonnyg]

Posted on: March 11th, 2017


In the table below I have added the last 180 games in the Championship where the away team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 44% ended over 2.5 goals

Game Pathway

0-1 FT<> 39/180

> 1-1 <> 86/180

> 0-2 <> 55/180

> 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then > 0-2 pathway and as a result we will see some draw bias in this profile.

21-51-108 < the away teams won 60% and 28% ended a draw.

Both teams scored in 62%

In games in the table below where there was a home fightback in the 46-70 minutes time band > 1-3 1-2 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-5 1-3 2-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-1 3-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-2 2-2 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 5-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-3 2-2 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 2-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 < 67% ended over 2.5 goals 16-28-14 < 48% ended a draw > no home bias

The away teams won the second half of the games in the table below in only 21% for the simple reason that in this profile in the Championship > the pathway > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2 and if the game does > 0-2 pathway then we will see lowered expectation of the game ending 0-2 ( 11% of the games in the table below ended 0-2 )

Summary

How does the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state ) effect accuracy as time decays in a game ?

In the Championship in games that are 0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric and there will be lowered expectation of the away team winning the second half and the most likely full time outcome in this profile will be 0-1,1-1 and 1-2

T HT FT T+1 T+2
Forest Brentford 17 0 1 2 3 A55 A68
Fulham Leeds 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Birmingham Wigan 19 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 14 0 1 1 3 H63 A67
Barnsley Hudd 18 0 1 1 1 H75
Bristol City Fulham 17 0 1 0 2 A54
Birmingham QPR 18 0 1 1 4 A47 A84
Preston Ipswich 16 0 1 1 1 H89
QPR Burton 11 0 1 1 2 A52 H63
Brentford Newcastle 20 0 1 1 2 H52 A79
Blackburn Brighton 16 0 1 2 3 A61 H66
Cardiff Wolves 2 0 1 2 1 H68 H86
Wigan Derby 16 0 1 0 1
Brentford Birmingham 14 0 1 1 2 A63 H77
Brighton Fulham 18 0 1 2 1 H52 H79
Fulham Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H90
Brighton Preston 10 0 1 2 2 H54 H65
Wolves Norwich 2 0 1 1 2 A73 H80
Fulham QPR 20 0 1 1 2 H47 A87
Fulham Bristol City 10 0 1 0 4 A60 A68
Derby Newcastle 20 0 1 0 2 A90
Bristol City Villa 5 0 1 3 1 H59 H61
Bristol City Newcastle 19 0 1 0 1
Hudds Brentford 1 0 1 1 5 H50 A52
Charlton Burnley 20 0 1 0 3 A49 A51
Rotherham Blackburn 6 0 1 0 1
Charlton Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H51 A55
Cardiff Bolton 7 0 1 2 1 H55 H90
Preston Burnley 6 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Leeds 11 0 1 1 2 A50 H53
Bristol City Rotherham 12 0 1 1 1 H54
Preston Fulham 5 0 1 1 2 H63 A74
Preston QPR 5 0 1 1 1 H90
Hudds Ipswich 19 0 1 0 1
Forest Hudds 14 0 1 0 2 A84
Wolves Preston 17 0 1 1 2 A53 H66
Wed Burnley 3 0 1 1 1 H48
Reading Wed 10 0 1 1 1 H74
Blackburn Brighton 3 0 1 0 1
ipswich Leeds 1 0 1 2 1 H50 H90
MK Dons Burnley 14 0 1 0 5 A46 A64
Reading Brentford 17 0 1 1 2 H58 A72
MK Dons Ipswich 10 0 1 0 1
Birmingham Hudds 1 0 1 0 2 A81
Bolton Brentford 10 0 1 1 1 H65
Fulham Preston 11 0 1 1 1 H77
Hudds Boro 9 0 1 0 2 A84
MK Dons Hull 19 0 1 0 2 A90
Birmingham Wolves 11 0 1 0 2 A84
Fulham Reading 13 0 1 4 2 A49 H50
Wolves Brentford 17 0 1 0 2 A88
Bolton Birmingham 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Bristol City 17 0 1 2 1 H53 H82
Rotherham Burnley 9 0 1 1 2 H75 A81
Brentford Preston 1 0 1 2 1 H62 H65
QPR Blackburn 14 0 1 2 2 H46 A60
Cardiff Hull 8 0 1 0 2 A80
Boro Bristol City 8 0 1 0 1
Huddersfield Brighton 1 0 1 1 1 H54
Derby Boro 16 0 1 1 1 H88
Blackburn Cardiff 5 0 1 1 1 H88
Burnley Birmingham 10 0 1 2 2 H51 A63
Derby Reading 2 0 1 0 3 A72 A85
Reading Brentford 7 0 1 0 2 A65
Blackpool Fulham 8 0 1 0 1
Norwich Boro 9 0 1 0 1
Fulham Rotherham 4 0 1 1 1 H67
Reading Bournemouth 4 0 1 0 1
Bolton Charlton 9 0 1 1 1 H80
Birmingham Blackburn 8 0 1 2 2 H64 A68
Bolton Blackpool 9 0 1 1 1 H90
Huddersfield Fulham 2 0 1 0 2 A90
Cardiff Bournemouth 16 0 1 1 1 H62
Norwich Wigan 8 0 1 0 1
Rotherham Millwall 20 0 1 2 1 H47 H85
Wigan Cardiff 20 0 1 0 1
Derby Sheff Wed 20 0 1 3 2 H46 A55
Ipswich Reading 14 0 1 0 1
Boro Leeds 3 0 1 0 1
Reading Wigam 17 0 1 0 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 0 1 2 1 H51 H66
Huddersfield Wolves 11 0 1 1 4 A46 A60
Sheff Wed Cardiff 7 0 1 1 1 H75
Wigan Blackburn 15 0 1 1 1 H63
Leeds Birmingham 8 0 1 1 1 H86
Bolton Leeds 2 0 1 1 1 H48
Leeds Wigan 11 0 1 0 2 A83
Charlton Cardiff 12 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Charton 10 0 1 1 1 H69
Wigan Norwich 5 0 1 0 1
Brighton Millwall 15 0 1 0 1
Wolves Brighton 10 0 1 1 1 H88
Forest Norwich 16 0 1 2 1 H85 H90
Watford Cardiff 12 0 1 0 1
Wigan ipswich 20 0 1 1 2 A63 H82
Forest Ipswich 20 0 1 2 2 H63 A71
Birmingham Bolton 20 0 1 0 1
Brighton Brough 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Brentford Birmingham 16 0 1 1 1 H79
Brighton Charlton 4 0 1 2 2 H67 A75
Boro Reading 7 0 1 0 1
Cardiff Boro 2 0 1 0 1
Fulham Wolves 15 0 1 0 1
Fulham Millwall 12 0 1 0 1
Leeds Brighton 5 0 1 0 2 A84
Leeds Derby 6 0 1 1 1 H50
Birmingham Wigan 3 0 1 0 1
Barnsley Leeds 16 0 1 0 1
Millwall Watford 17 0 1 2 2 H64 A86
Barnsley Burnley 7 0 1 0 1
Blackpool Yeovil 16 0 1 1 2 A74 H78
QPR Blackpool 11 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Forest 4 0 1 1 1 H78
Ipswich Derby 1 0 1 2 1 H68 H90
Bolton Brighton 14 0 1 0 2 A65
Birmingham QPR 14 0 1 0 2 A73
Reading Yeovil 20 0 1 1 1 H69
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 0 1 1 2 A60 H90
Millwall Bolton 15 0 1 1 1 H82
Reading Sheff Wed 10 0 1 0 2 A58
Wigan Charlton 4 0 1 2 1 H88 H90
Yeovil Burnley 19 0 1 1 2 A62 H80
Watford Reading 5 0 1 0 1
Millwall Leicester 6 0 1 1 3 A48 H68
Brighton Bournemouth 14 0 1 1 1 H89
Barnsley Derby 8 0 1 1 2 A49 H62
Derby Blackpool 3 0 1 5 1 H47 H53
Sheff Wed Huddersfield 11 0 1 1 2 A68 H90
Doncaster Brighton 8 0 1 1 3 H75 A85
Watford Leicester 10 0 1 0 3 A53 A86
Brighton Watford 4 0 1 1 1 H55
Blackburn Charlton 7 0 1 0 1
Wigan Blackburn 8 0 1 2 1 H69 H90
Birmingham Bolton 12 0 1 1 2 A64 H69
Charlton Forest 3 0 1 1 1 H50
Forest Boro 17 0 1 2 2 A55 H69
Bolton Leeds 6 0 1 0 1
Watford Forest 6 0 1 1 1 H54
Birmingham Watford 11 0 1 0 1
Doncaster Blackpool 16 0 1 1 3 H60 A86
Huddersfield Barnsley 14 0 1 2 2 H53 A74
Millwall Forest 8 0 1 0 1
Wolves Burnley 8 0 1 1 2 A53 H88
Cardiff Bolton 18 0 1 1 1 H68
Leeds Brighton 10 0 1 1 2 H73 A88
Sheff Wed ipswich 12 0 1 1 1 H58
Bristol City Birmingham 15 0 1 0 1
Bristol City Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 H49 A79
Leeds Peterbrough 15 0 1 1 1 H56
Huddersfield Charton 4 0 1 0 1
Watford Sheff Wed 18 0 1 2 1 H53 H63
Millwall Wolves 8 0 1 0 2 A61
Derby Palace 13 0 1 0 1
Wolves Cardiff 20 0 1 1 2 A67 H70
Leicester Charlton 19 0 1 1 2 H69 A78
Ipswich Waford 18 0 1 0 2 A72
Barnsley Wolves 7 0 1 2 1 H49 H73
Boro Barnsley 6 0 1 2 3 H50 H62
Millwall Hull 1 0 1 0 1
Peterborough Burnley 1 0 1 2 2 H65 H69
Palace Charlton 15 0 1 2 1 H74 H79
Millwall Burnley 19 0 1 0 2 A59
Blackpool Wolves 3 0 1 1 2 A72 H89
Blackburn Bolton 2 0 1 1 2 A61 H82
Derby Cardiff 11 0 1 1 1 H69
Ipswich Peterbrough 8 0 1 1 1 H60
Bristol City Charton 20 0 1 0 2 A56
Sheff Wed Blackpool 18 0 1 0 2 A83
Birmingham Ipswich 8 0 1 0 1
ipswich Sheff Wed 2 0 1 0 3 A58 A81
Barnsley Palace 11 0 1 1 1 H86
Barnsley ipswich 6 0 1 1 1 H73
Millwall Brighton 17 0 1 1 2 A50 H79
Blackburn Boro 7 0 1 1 2 A61 H89
Leicester Burnley 10 0 1 2 1 H47 H57
Burnley Brighton 18 0 1 1 3 H60 A77
Peterborough Leeds 7 0 1 1 2 A50 H73
Blackpool Leeds 16 0 1 2 1 H75 H80
ipswich Millwall 3 0 1 0 3 A63 A87
Southampton Reading 19 0 1 1 3 H48 A72

[jonnyg]

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 59 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1 , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals .

17-20-22

Game Pathway

18/59 FT 1-1

20/59 > 2-1 <> 17-2-1 <> home teams won 85% = 1.18 < at 2-1 Barnsley ( home to Leeds ) were offered at 1.5

21/59 1-2 <> 0-0-21 <> away teams won 100%

> 2-2 pathway <> 7/59

Summary

The opening goal by the away team in the Championship and 1-1 half time game state and in general there will not be any home bias with the pathway > 2-2 not a common event and as a result > 1-2 / 2-1 and that will in general be a signal in this profile in the Championship that the team conceding the 3rd goal are unlikely to fightback.

T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Barnsley Leeds 18 1 1 H48 H54 3 2
Derby Reading 16 1 1 H63 H74 3 2
Blackburn Birmingham 3 1 1 1 1
Wigan Ipswich 7 1 1 H62 A68 2 3
Fulham Rotherham 19 1 1 H54 2 1
Blackburn Hudd 6 1 1 1 1
Brighton Villa 20 1 1 1 1
Wed Wigan 5 1 1 H62 2 1
Leeds Birmingham 15 1 1 A55 1 2
MK Dons Forest 8 1 1 A74 1 2
Cardiff Birmingham 11 1 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 1 1 A51 A57 2 3
Brentford Charlton 1 1 1 A69 1 2
Leeds Fulham 17 1 1 1 1
Boro Cardiff 20 1 1 H63 H83 3 1
Hudd Fulham 2 1 1 1 1
ipswich Preston 7 1 1 1 1
Cardiff Forest 9 1 1 1 1
Leeds Derby 13 1 1 H71 A78 2 2
Fulham Ipswich 1 1 1 A57 1 2
Fulham Brentford 18 1 1 H64 A71 2 2
Bolton Cardiff 13 1 1 A53 H71 2 3
Burnley Brighton 1 1 1 1 1
Hudd Derby 15 1 1 A48 1 2
Birmingham QPR 17 1 1 H63 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 1 1 A89 1 2
Brighton Cardiff 5 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Bolton 3 1 1 H51 H74 4 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 1 1 H53 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 1 1 H61 2 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Leeds Cardiff 14 1 1 A62 1 2
Charlton Fulham 8 1 1 1 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Millwall Huddersfield 17 1 1 A74 A86 1 3
Wolves Reading 1 1 1 A70 1 2
Huddersfield Leeds 7 1 1 A90 1 2
Huddersfield Bolton 1 1 1 H85 2 1
Blackburn Sheff Wed 3 1 1 A90 1 2
Norwich Blackburn 1 1 1 H86 H90 3 1
Blackburn Cardiff 18 1 1 1 1
Derby Watford 5 1 1 H60 A70 4 2
Derby Huddersfield 14 1 1 H50 H57 3 1
Reading Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 1
Reading Barnsley 16 1 1 A53 A57 1 3
Blackburn Leicester 20 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Blackburn 4 1 1 A55 A65 2 4
QPR Leeds 14 1 1 1 1
QPR Reading 10 1 1 A56 A58 1 3
Bolton Charlton 11 1 1 1 1
Barnsley Yeovil 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Leeds 17 1 1 A48 H70 2 4
Huddersfield Birmingham 11 1 1 A66 A81 1 3
Huddersfield Leeds 2 1 1 H63 A73 3 2
Sheff Wed Ipswich 12 1 1 1 1
Millwall Blackpool 15 1 1 H73 H74 3 1
Ipswich Boro 12 1 1 H56 H90 3 1
Bournemouth Blackpool 7 1 1 A47 1 2
Leeds Brighton 13 1 1 H90 2 1

[jonnyg]

in the Championship 2014-2015 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 72%, 19% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .

Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship 2014-2015 season , 65% ended a home win , 29% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% with 71% ending under 2.5 goals

in the Championship 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%

The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games

1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship last season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals



44% produced a goal 80 +





GAME PATHWAY



FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%

> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%

> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%

[jonnyg]

Posted on: February 22nd, 2017


In the table below I have added the last 40 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;

18-12-10 <> 30% ended a draw , 1/0.3 = 9/4 +

QPR 1-1 HT > 13/8 13/10 3/1

85% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals

T HT FT
QPR Wigan 4 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Leeds 9 1 1 1 1
Newcastle QPR 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Forest 4 1 1 3 1
Hudds Bristol City 10 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Rotherham 3 1 1 2 2
Wigan Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Forest Wigan 6 1 1 4 3
Reading Brighton 2 1 1 2 2
Dons Brentford 6 1 1 1 4
Reading Hull 4 1 1 1 2
Rotherham Hudds 10 1 1 1 1
Hull Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Bolton Rotherham 2 1 1 2 1
Wolves Leeds 10 1 1 2 3
Burnley Sheff Wed 7 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 1 1 1 1
Ipswich Brentford 9 1 1 1 1
Brentford Huddersfield 4 1 1 4 1
Bournemouth Wolves 10 1 1 2 1
Brighton Birmingham 8 1 1 4 3
Fulham Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Boro Charlton 6 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Watford 2 1 1 2 1
Huddersfiled Brighton 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Wigan 8 1 1 2 1
Charlton Yeovil 10 1 1 3 2
Leicester Sheff Wed 10 1 1 2 1
Watford Blackburn 4 1 1 3 3
Burnley Blackpool 7 1 1 2 1
Millwall Forest 8 1 1 2 2
ipswich Blackburn 4 1 1 3 1
Wolves Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 3
Millwall Sheff Wed 2 1 1 1 2
Charlton Brighton 9 1 1 2 2
Sheff Wed Bristol City 3 1 1 2 3
Sheff Wed Watford 3 1 1 1 4
Wolves Forest 5 1 1 1 2
Watord Boro 1 1 1 1 2
Bristol City Blackburn 1 1 1 3 5

[jonnyg]

Posted on: August 18th, 2016


In the table below I have added all the games since 2011-2012 in the Championship where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , and 38% ended over 2.5 goals (13/8 )

The home teams won 64%, 27% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% , some expectation of the away teams fighting back but lowered expectation of the away teams winning.

The home team scored the second goal of the game in 37%, no second goal in 22% and the away teams scored the second goal of the game in 41%

24% ( 22/91 ) of the games followed the pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and of the 22 games that followed that pathway , 8/22 ( 36% ) ended 1-1 .