Did you back Liverpool at odds on before the game started / in play v Bournemouth ?

[jonnyg]

in the table below I have added the last 35 games in the Premier League when Liverpool were priced at odds on before the game started and they won 54% = 1.85 with 71% ending over 2.5 goals and 57% over 3.5 goals

If you backed Liverpool to win before the games started in the table below to a fixed stake of 1 unit then your loss would have been 16.89%

key point < If you are looking at expected goal totals as a metric in terms of betting on football then you should have made the discovery by now that ExpG is as useful as a chocolate teapot for the simple reason that the data will not be repeatable on a game by game basis as accuracy in a game is dependent on the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state )

If you find yourself at a trading seminar where you are advised to look at the ExpG of teams in terms of their expected points total over a season then my advice would be to make a run for it and do not look back as you are running out of the fire exit.

Price FT
Liverpool Bourne 43/100 2 2 -1
Liverpool Everton 18/25 3 1 18/25
Liverpool Burnley 27/100 2 1 27/100
Leicester Liverpool 33/50 3 1 -1
Hull Liverpool 13/25 2 0 -1
Liverpool Swansea 100/400 2 3 -1
Sunderland Liverpool 30/100 2 2 -1
Liverpool Stoke 80/250 4 1 80/250
Boro Liverpool 70/100 0 3 70/100
Liverpool WHU 29/100 2 2 -1
Bourne Liverpool 18/25 4 3 -1
Liverpool Sunderland 17/100 2 0 17/100
Liverpool Watford 27/100 6 1 27/100
Palace Liverpool 37/50 2 4 37/50
Liverpool WBA 29/100 2 1 29/100
Swansea Liverpool 110/250 1 2 110/250
Liverpool Hull 60/250 5 1 60/250
Liverpool Leicester 17/25 4 1 17/25
Burnley Liverpool 13/25 2 0 -1
Liverpool Chelsea 69/100 1 1 -1
Liverpool Watford 110/200 2 0 110/200
Liverpool Newcastle 51/100 2 2 -1
Liverpool Everton 17/25 4 0 17/25
Liverpool Stoke 33/50 4 1 33/50
Villa Liverpool 71/100 0 6 71/100
Liverpool Sunderland 90/200 2 2 -1
Norwich Liverpool 99/100 4 5 99/100
WHU Liverpool 99/100 2 0 -1
Sunderland Liverpool 33/50 0 1 33/50
Liverpool WBA 110/250 2 2 -1
Newcastle Liverpool 14/25 2 0 -1
Liverpool Swansea 49/100 1 0 49/100
Liverpool Palace 63/100 1 2 -1
Liverpool Villa 51/100 3 2 51/100
Liverpool Norwich 31/50 1 1 -1

[jonnyg]

Liverpool since 2003-2004 at home in the Premier League have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 time band in 20 games, 70% ended over 2.5 goals , and 30% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both team scored in 80% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 50%.

7-7-6 <> Liverpool won 35% <> 1/0.35 = 15/8

T HT FT
Liverpool Bourne 7 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Burnley 7 1 1 2 1
Liverpool Stoke 12 2 1 4 1
Liverpool WHU 3 0 2 0 3
Liverpool Man UTD 14 0 1 1 2
Liverpool Villa 9 0 1 0 1
Liverpool Newcastle 20 0 1 2 1
Liverpool Fulham 5 0 1 0 1
Liverpool Villa 10 0 1 1 1
Liverpool Spurs 9 0 1 0 2
Liverpool Hull 12 2 2 2 2
Liverpool Man UTD 3 1 1 2 1
Liverpool Reading 5 1 1 2 1
Liverpool Boro 9 2 1 3 2
Liverpool Charlton 2 0 1 2 2
Liverpool Blackburn 17 0 1 1 1
Liverpool WHU 12 2 1 2 1
Liverpool Boro 4 0 1 1 1
Liverpool Spurs 12 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Southampton 2 0 1 1 2

[jonnyg]

Posted on: January 2nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
In the table below I have added all the games since 2014-2015 in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time ;

13-17-8 < Liverpool were offered at 4/7 at HT >

In the games in the table below where a team were odds on before the game started > FT > 2-2 2-1 ( lost ) 1-1 2-1 (won ) 2-2 3-1 ( won ) 2-1 ( won ) 1-1 1-1 2-1 ( won ) 2-2 1-1 6-1 ( won ) 2-1 ( won ) 1-1 3-1 ( lost ) 2-1 ( won ) 4-2 ( won ) 1-1 3-3 1-1 < the teams that were odds on ( before the game started ) won 38% > 1/0.38 = 13/8

Summary

When you bet in play you should acknowledge that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened /strengthened by the variables that may occur during a game which you should factor before triggering your in play bets .

The opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 time band and 1-1 half time in the Premier League and in general you will see lowered expectation of an away win even if the away team was the perceived stronger before the game started .

T HT FT Goal 80+
Sunderland Liverpool 19 1 1 2 2 84 228/25 253/50 30/100
Everton Arsenal 20 1 1 2 1 86 309/100 111/40 23/25
Watford Everton 17 1 1 3 2 86 113/50 58/25 67/50
Man UTD West Ham 2 1 1 1 1 70/200 447/100 811/100
Chelsea Spurs 11 45 2 1 71/100 57/20 437/100
Swansea Palace 19 36 5 4 82849090 42/25 227/100 91/50
Leicester Boro 13 34 2 2 90 91/100 120/50 181/50
Swansea Man City 9 13 1 3 401/50 117/25 17/50
Arsenal South 18 29 2 1 90 31/50 301/100 101/20
Boro Palace 16 38 1 2 70/50 54/25 58/25
Swansea Man City 5 45 1 1 291/50 79/20 23/50
Newcastle Man City 14 31 1 1 523/100 347/100 110/200
Man City WBA 6 19 2 1 70/200 427/100 913/100
Chelsea West Ham 17 45 2 2 89 81/100 271/100 371/100
Palace Watford 16 45 1 2 82 60/50 56/25 269/100
Sunderland Bourne 13 45 1 1 89/50 233/100 42/25
Watford Spurs 17 41 1 2 89 56/25 119/50 27/20
WBA Spurs 15 39 1 1 181/50 267/100 83/100
Villa Watford 17 41 2 3 85 89 44/25 219/100 179/100
Man City Newcastle 18 42 6 1 23/100 299/50 243/20
West Ham Norwich 9 33 2 2 83 90 50/40 49/20 59/25
Norwich Stoke 11 28 1 1 117/100 237/100 129/50
Palace Arsenal 16 28 1 2 104/25 297/100 70/100
Stoke Sunderland 1 27 1 1 41/50 61/25 409/100
Newcastle South 14 29 1 2 93/50 110/50 42/25
Newcastle Everton 5 34 3 2 84 79/50 47/20 37/20
South Man UTD 12 31 1 2 189/100 119/50 77/50
Villa Leicester 13 17 2 1 147/100 231/100 203/100
WHU Swansea 19 41 3 1 87 27/20 47/20 221/100
Palace Liverpool 2 17 3 1 81 63/20 251/100 97/100
Man City Swansea 9 19 2 1 90/250 87/20 787/100
QPR Stoke 11 42 2 2 88 177/100 53/25 91/50
Chelsea Swansea 11 45 4 2 81 86 80/250 219/50 981/100
Sunderland Spurs 2 4 2 2 82 269/100 61/25 111/100
Leicester Arsenal 20 22 1 1 82/25 51/20 91/100
Newcastle Palace 1 37 3 3 88 90 69/100 67/25 467/100
Sunderland Man UTD 17 30 1 1 222/50 151/50 33/50
WBA Sunderland 5 42 2 2 85 111/100 59/25 69/25

[jonnyg]

quote:
Originally posted by Nape:
Liverpool 1-1 HT


4/7 11/5 8/1


well indeed Liverpool could win < but if you take 4/7 < call a nurse now < because you could start feeling ill in the 2nd half >


over 3.5 is offered at 5/6



I am running a free in play service on a public forum that you may find of interest

[jimbo50]

i am following your post on here , and i like the way you approach the games, do you this for every gam or just select games??