The effect of the early home goal in the National league 2015-2016 v 2016 -2017

[jonnyg]

LAST season in the National League where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 72% and over 1.5 first half goals were landed in 65%

The home teams won 20%, 17% ended a draw and the away teams won 63%



GAME PATHWAY

13/ 100 FT 0-1

54> 1-1 <> 18-14-22 <> away teams won 41%

33 > 0-2 <> 2-3-28 <> away teams won 85%


When we look at the data this season we want to understand if the pathway > 1-1 is more likely then > 0-2 with the key point that even if > 1-1 is more likely < we should be looking at lowered expectation of a draw in this profile in the National league



2016-2017 season


101 games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

GAME PATHWAY

12/101 FT 0-1

52/ 101 > 1-1 23-17-12 < away teams won 23%

37/101 > 0-2 0-2-35 < away teams won 95%

70% ended over 2.5 goals


47.5% over 3.5

72% BTTS YES and 64% over 1.5 first half goals


the home teams won 23% , 19% ended a draw and the away teams won 58%

[jonnyg]

YOU COULD BE LAYING THE DRAW BEFORE A GAME STARTS WHEN YOU SHOULD BE TRADING THE DRAW IN PLAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE OPENING GOAL

[jonnyg]

Last season in the National League where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 61% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 66% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%

The home teams won 67% , 17% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 16%

1-0 half time to the home team added to the early home goal metric in the National League 2015–2016 , 68% ended in a home win with 77% under 2.5 goals.

GAME PATHWAY

8/64 FT 1-0

31 > 2-0 31-0-0 Home teams won 100

25 > 1-1 4-11-10 home teams won 16%

This season there have been 68 games in the National League where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

GAME PATHWAY

3/68 1-0 FT

40/68 > 2-0 37-3-0 home teams won 92.5%

25/68 > 1-1 10-9-6 home teams won 40%

the home teams won 73.53% , 17.65% ended a draw and the away teams won 8.82%

73.5% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 62% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 56%

53% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

National League this season in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band AND 1-0 HT GAME STATE >

22-6-2 < AN AWAY WIN IN THIS PROFILE IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WILL BE A RARE EVENT = GAME STATE ANALYSIS > THE home teams won 73% and 57% ended OVER 2.5 goals

Bromley
1 – 1
Guiseley
B. Goldberg 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
50′ J. Preston

Forest Green R…
2 – 2
Maidstone United
K. Marsh-Brown 10′
1 – 0
K. Lokko (OG) 55′
2 – 0
2 – 1
61′ H. Phipps
2 – 2
81′ J. Pigott

Sutton United
5 – 2
Chester
A. Coombes 5′
1 – 0
A. May 8′
2 – 0
J. Collins 41′
3 – 0
A. Coombes 46′
4 – 0
N. Bailey 71′
5 – 0
5 – 1
79′ J. Alabi
5 – 2
82′ J. Alabi

Eastleigh
2 – 1
Bromley
S. Wilson 9′
1 – 0
S. Matthews 82′
2 – 0
2 – 1
83′ J. Higgs

York City
1 – 3
Wrexham
J. Parkin 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
30′ J. White
1 – 2
58′ J. White
1 – 3
90′ L. Smith

Bromley
4 – 1
Barrow
G. Porter 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ R. Bennett (PG)
B. Turgott (PG) 22′
2 – 1
T. Sho-Silva 35′
3 – 1
T. Sho-Silva 85′
4 – 1

Wrexham
1 – 3
Maidstone United
J. White 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
30′ J. Pigott
1 – 2
52′ J. Loza
1 – 3
83′ A. Flisher

Macclesfield Town
3 – 0
Maidstone United
R. Browne 1′
1 – 0
D. Whitaker (PG) 87′
2 – 0
J. Mackreth 89′
3 – 0

Braintree Town
1 – 2
Dover Athletic
M. Cheek 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
64′ C. Essam
1 – 2
90′ R. Miller

Bromley
4 – 3
Wrexham
T. Sho-Silva 9′
1 – 0
J. Higgs 21′
2 – 0
T. Sho-Silva 48′
3 – 0
3 – 1
52′ J. White
3 – 2
58′ N. Massanka
B. Turgott 83′
4 – 2
4 – 3
86′ N. Massanka

Woking
2 – 1
Sutton United
D. Sam-Yorke 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ K. Cadogan
G. Ugwu 83′
2 – 1

Chester
2 – 3
Macclesfield Town
J. Alabi 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
23′ A. Halls
1 – 2
43′ A. Dudley
K. Richards 75′
2 – 2
2 – 3
85′ O. Norburn

York City
5 – 3
Southport
S. Newton 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ L. Almond
1 – 2
20′ R. McKeown
1 – 3
41′ L. Almond
V. Oliver 45′
2 – 3
J. Parkin 64′
3 – 3
A. Morgan-Smith 72′
4 – 3
J. Parkin 78′
5 – 3

Braintree Town
1 – 2
Wrexham
M. Cheek 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
4′ N. Massanka
1 – 2
64′ O. Shenton

North Ferriby …
2 – 1
Woking
J. Skelton 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
27′ G. Ugwu
R. Thompson 70′
2 – 1

York City
3 – 1
Eastleigh
J. Parkin 7′
1 – 0
J. Parkin 13′
2 – 0
2 – 1
15′ R. Stearn
V. Oliver 81′
3 – 1

Chester
2 – 3
Tranmere Rovers
J. Alabi (PG) 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
54′ J. Harris
R. Astles 68′
2 – 1
2 – 2
81′ J. Norwood
2 – 3
89′ A. Cook

Dover Athletic
3 – 0
Eastleigh
R. Miller 3′
1 – 0
R. Miller 72′
2 – 0
R. Miller 81′
3 – 0

Tranmere Rovers
2 – 1
Boreham Wood
A. Cook 1′
1 – 0
A. Cook 13′
2 – 0
2 – 1
89′ Bruno Andrade

Maidstone United
4 – 2
Chester
K. Lokko 2′
1 – 0
D. Sam-Yorke 5′
2 – 0
J. Pigott 13′
3 – 0
K. Lokko 44′
4 – 0
4 – 1
52′ J. Alabi (PG)
4 – 2
67′ S. Hughes

Guiseley
2 – 1
Sutton United
J. Cassidy 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
37′ M. Tubbs (PG)
J. Rooney 90′
2 – 1

Woking
2 – 1
Solihull Moors
T. Thomas 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ S. Murombedzi
Fabio Saraiva 73′
2 – 1

Aldershot Town
2 – 2
Barrow
M. McClure 1′
1 – 0
W. Evans 26′
2 – 0
2 – 1
73′ S. Tuton
2 – 2
90′ R. Hannah

Lincoln City
3 – 2
Woking
M. Rhead 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
11′ G. Ugwu
T. Thomas (OG) 51′
2 – 1
M. Rhead 60′
3 – 1
3 – 2
75′ Fabio Saraiva (PG)

Solihull Moors
3 – 0
Sutton United
R. Charles-Cook 2′
1 – 0
R. Charles-Cook 45′
2 – 0
O. Afolayan 70′
3 – 0

Tranmere Rovers
2 – 2
Bromley
A. Cook 8′
1 – 0
A. Cook 15′
2 – 0
2 – 1
66′ B. Hanlan
2 – 2
87′ J. Holland

York City
1 – 1
Maidstone United
J. Parkin 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ R. Prestedge

Solihull Moors
2 – 0
Maidstone United
J. Kettle 7′
1 – 0
G. Carline 30′
2 – 0

Barrow
3 – 0
Lincoln City
B. Harrison 9′
1 – 0
R. Bennett 61′
2 – 0
R. Hannah (PG) 90′
3 – 0

Lincoln City
2 – 0
Dover Athletic
T. Sterling (OG) 9′
1 – 0
T. Hawkridge 83′
2 – 0

Dover Athletic
2 – 2
York City
J. Grimes 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
36′ J. Parkin
R. Miller (PG) 72′
2 – 1
2 – 2
77′ S. Rooney

Forest Green R…
5 – 5
Torquay United
K. Marsh-Brown 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
14′ D. Sparkes
1 – 2
21′ D. Sparkes
K. Marsh-Brown 29′
2 – 2
2 – 3
40′ A. Verma
2 – 4
50′ E. Pinnock (OG)
C. Doidge 62′
3 – 4
3 – 5
67′ D. Fitzpatrick
C. Doidge 83′
4 – 5
B. Moore (OG) 88′
5 – 5

Eastleigh
2 – 2
Boreham Wood
J. Constable 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ M. Ferrier
M. Mandron (PG) 81′
2 – 1
2 – 2
90′ D. Woodards

Aldershot Town
4 – 0
Woking
S. Rendell 8′
1 – 0
S. Fenelon 10′
2 – 0
S. Rendell 25′
3 – 0
S. Rendell 45′
4 – 0

Lincoln City
2 – 1
Tranmere Rovers
N. Arnold 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ J. Hughes (PG)
A. Marriott 82′
2 – 1

Southport
4 – 3
Eastleigh
Andrai Jones 5′
1 – 0
L. Nolan 30′
2 – 0
2 – 1
32′ R. Johnson
D. Weeks 48′
3 – 1
3 – 2
59′ J. Constable
J. Allen (PG) 77′
4 – 2
4 – 3
86′ J. Constable

Sutton United
1 – 0
Wrexham
M. Riley (OG) 4′
1 – 0

Bromley
2 – 0
Maidstone United
A. Cunnington 1′
1 – 0
G. Porter 66′
2 – 0

Maidstone United
2 – 1
Eastleigh
D. Sweeney 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
49′ M. Mandron (PG)
B. Taylor (PG) 59′
2 – 1

Bromley
3 – 0
York City
J. Holland 5′
1 – 0
G. Porter 25′
2 – 0
A. Cunnington 78′
3 – 0

Woking
3 – 0
Gateshead
G. Ugwu 9′
1 – 0
G. Ugwu 56′
2 – 0
G. Ugwu 72′
3 – 0

Braintree Town
2 – 2
Bromley
R. Hall-Johnson 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
7′ T. Sho-Silva
1 – 2
52′ L. Minshull
M. Cheek 68′
2 – 2

Forest Green R…
2 – 2
Tranmere Rovers
C. Doidge 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
4′ L. Maynard
L. Noble 29′
2 – 1
2 – 2
66′ J. Norwood

Southport
3 – 2
Maidstone United
J. Allen 5′
1 – 0
L. Nolan 45′
2 – 0
J. Allen 52′
3 – 0
3 – 1
59′ Y. Odubade
3 – 2
90′ B. Taylor (PG)

Dover Athletic
3 – 1
Sutton United
R. Miller 3′
1 – 0
R. Miller 57′
2 – 0
2 – 1
74′ K. Amankwaah
J. Stevenson 85′
3 – 1

Lincoln City
3 – 0
Braintree Town
N. Arnold 3′
1 – 0
L. Waterfall 52′
2 – 0
J. Muldoon 89′
3 – 0

Dover Athletic
2 – 0
Lincoln City
J. Grimes 4′
1 – 0
M. Emmanuel 53′
2 – 0

Boreham Wood
2 – 0
Torquay United
A. Jeffrey 10′
1 – 0
M. Ferrier 12′
2 – 0

Dagenham & Red…
2 – 0
Dover Athletic
J. Maguire-Drew 2′
1 – 0
O. Hawkins (PG) 38′
2 – 0

Torquay United
2 – 0
York City
N. Blissett 6′
1 – 0
N. Blissett 29′
2 – 0

Aldershot Town
3 – 1
Tranmere Rovers
B. Mensah 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
36′ A. Cook
S. Rendell (PG) 79′
2 – 1
W. Evans 82′
3 – 1

Eastleigh
2 – 0
North Ferriby …
A. Drury 4′
1 – 0
R. Johnson 51′
2 – 0

York City
4 – 0
Solihull Moors
R. Brodie 9′
1 – 0
A. Connolly 84′
2 – 0
S. Fenwick 89′
3 – 0
A. Connolly 90′
4 – 0

Forest Green R…
5 – 1
Southport
K. Moore 6′
1 – 0
M. Chemlal 10′
2 – 0
2 – 1
50′ A. Bishop
C. Clough 61′
3 – 1
K. Moore 78′
4 – 1
R. Murphy 87′
5 – 1

Lincoln City
3 – 0
Gateshead
S. Raggett 6′
1 – 0
N. Arnold 50′
2 – 0
A. Marriott 83′
3 – 0

Chester
4 – 0
Sutton United
B. Hudson 3′
1 – 0
R. Lloyd 7′
2 – 0
T. Shaw (PG) 85′
3 – 0
K. Richards 90′
4 – 0

Dagenham & Red…
3 – 0
Wrexham
O. Hawkins 10′
1 – 0
O. Hawkins 23′
2 – 0
O. Hawkins (PG) 45′
3 – 0

Boreham Wood
1 – 1
Chester View
M. Ferrier 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
83′ E. Durrell

Braintree Town
2 – 0
Aldershot Town
J. Goodman 8′
1 – 0
S. Akinola 76′
2 – 0

Macclesfield Town
3 – 1
Southport
D. Whitaker 5′
1 – 0
P. Lewis 9′
2 – 0
K. James 25′
3 – 0
3 – 1
84′ A. Grimes

Maidstone United
2 – 1
Braintree Town
B. Taylor 4′
1 – 0
B. Taylor 30′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ J. Maybanks

North Ferriby …
3 – 2
Guiseley
R. Kendall 8′
1 – 0
D. Emerton 21′
2 – 0
2 – 1
29′ O. Johnson
2 – 2
84′ O. Johnson
S. Russell 88′
3 – 2

Sutton United
2 – 0
Torquay United
M. Biamou 4′
1 – 0
N. Bailey (PG) 54′
2 – 0

Aldershot Town
2 – 0
Wrexham
S. Fenelon 3′
1 – 0
S. Rendell 58′
2 – 0

Solihull Moors
1 – 0
Bromley
L. Daly 4′
1 – 0

Forest Green R…
1 – 1
Sutton United
M. Tubbs 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
55′ N. Bailey (PG)

Lincoln City
6 – 1
North Ferriby …
M. Rhead 2′
1 – 0
N. Arnold 5′
2 – 0
L. Waterfall 16′
3 – 0
M. Rhead (PG) 24′
4 – 0
4 – 1
29′ C. Bateson
J. Margetts 51′
5 – 1
B. Wood 67′
6 – 1

Barrow
1 – 0
Aldershot Town
L. Hughes 7′
1 – 0

[jonnyg]

Chap called Martyn Tyler has a tendency on sky sports to advise that a " 2-0 lead is precarious "


last 71 games in the National League where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > 2-0 pathway


68-3-0 < I call this game pathway analysis which has received almost no interest < monster powerful in play trading tool > although strata bet did have a look at this area in a blog a few weeks back

[jonnyg]

last 50 games in the National league where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway


14-20-16 > no home bias < many of the home teams were odds on at 1-1

the home teams won only 28% < quite a few were offered at odds on at 1-1 >

[jonnyg]

The first trading site to incorporate the time of the opening goal into the trading models / seminars that they offer is going to get massive interest

[jonnyg]

when you look at the time of the opening goal >

how likely is

1. a quick response ?

2.how likely is > 2-0 /0-2 v 1-1 pathway ?

3. how likely is BTTS YES ?

4. is there draw expectation or lack of daw bias ?

5. how likely is a goal 80 +