Jeff
enzabella2009 wrote:I hope betfair did not pay the 2.4 million traded on the draw.
Chievo - Catania
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CaerMyrddin
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Well, they payed to me
It's seems like the same is happening on the Vicenza v Crotone, Serie B match tomorrow...
It's seems like the same is happening on the Vicenza v Crotone, Serie B match tomorrow...
Very interesting, definite strong suspicions of a match fix there. I've looked up sports fixing on the internet, so far as I can tell, occasionally it does happen (mostly in lower grade events), but thankfully it does seem quite rare (at least, that are very few actual cases where match fixing was proven in court).
To fix a soccer match you really need the referee to be in on it, and that's what could have happened here , the penalty was clearly nonsensical. As far as I can tell, the two teams were facing relegation, so it was in their interest to arrange for a draw to stay off the bottom of their league table.
Always remember, there's more to the way the world works than statistics. For example, he who controls the underlying causal factors for an event, can bend the odds at will, as any cheat can attest to - there are always factors that markets don't capture, always there are underlying causal factors that transcend simple probabilistic analysis.
Damn, I'm getting philosophical on your arses
To fix a soccer match you really need the referee to be in on it, and that's what could have happened here , the penalty was clearly nonsensical. As far as I can tell, the two teams were facing relegation, so it was in their interest to arrange for a draw to stay off the bottom of their league table.
Always remember, there's more to the way the world works than statistics. For example, he who controls the underlying causal factors for an event, can bend the odds at will, as any cheat can attest to - there are always factors that markets don't capture, always there are underlying causal factors that transcend simple probabilistic analysis.
Damn, I'm getting philosophical on your arses
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CaerMyrddin
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Hi Zenyatta (beautiful horse btw)
Well, as far as I can tell there is much more match fixed and corrupted matches than one would even imagine. Simply most of them don't become public and only some people bet on the fixed results and the markets don't reflect the distortion they should.
It is very interesting that betting exchanges can provide not proof, but clear alerts on fixed matches and how this can be worked out to prevent corruption
Well, as far as I can tell there is much more match fixed and corrupted matches than one would even imagine. Simply most of them don't become public and only some people bet on the fixed results and the markets don't reflect the distortion they should.
It is very interesting that betting exchanges can provide not proof, but clear alerts on fixed matches and how this can be worked out to prevent corruption
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enzabella2009
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Betfair was informed by the italian FA on wednesday the 17th of march about this match. ALL international bookmakers were informed about this. Bookmakers have been adviced to cancell Chievo vs Catania from their book by the major Italian bookmakers and the Italian FA. By friday 19th of march UK bookmakers were the last ones on earth to take off chievo vs catania from their book. BETFAIR is the only one that did not suspend the gamble going on. Therefore Betfair down such big eveidence have been involved in this as much as whom settled the game on 1-1. I am hearing that betfair paid it and made a substantial ammount of money over this match. what a disgrace.
Indeed.
And they are playing into the hands of the people (mainly bookies, it seems!), who argue that betting exchanges encourage corruption!
Jeff
And they are playing into the hands of the people (mainly bookies, it seems!), who argue that betting exchanges encourage corruption!
Jeff
enzabella2009 wrote:I am hearing that betfair paid it and made a substantial ammount of money over this match. what a disgrace.
Good aftternoon
I have seen much more lame penalties given than that, if the players were in on it why didnt the defender take his legs away - it almost looked like he ran behind him to get goal side? he would have only got a yellow for a blatant penalty.
As for one posters comments re the game was one sided til the goal went in, then the other team had all the chances - crazy eh!....thats football. Games go with momentum, how many times have you seen a team go 1-0 up then sit back trying to defend it?
If someone is involved it must be ref / officials only, which has been the case in numerous continental games.
Have BF commented officially on this?
Why is there no industry pressure?
Whats the Italian FA doing about this game?
I have seen much more lame penalties given than that, if the players were in on it why didnt the defender take his legs away - it almost looked like he ran behind him to get goal side? he would have only got a yellow for a blatant penalty.
As for one posters comments re the game was one sided til the goal went in, then the other team had all the chances - crazy eh!....thats football. Games go with momentum, how many times have you seen a team go 1-0 up then sit back trying to defend it?
If someone is involved it must be ref / officials only, which has been the case in numerous continental games.
Have BF commented officially on this?
Why is there no industry pressure?
Whats the Italian FA doing about this game?
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enzabella2009
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BF cashed lots of money. No statements by BF and most likely they won`t reply your e-mail if you ask them a comment about this matter. The Italian FA lauched an investigations and sent an inspector to watch the game but it will take months of years for a final statement. 2nite in about 6 hours and 20 minutes we will probaly witness an other settled 1-1 VICENZA vs CROTONE. The Italian FA already managed to pass the informations to major bookmakers which have already taking off the match from their book. BETFAIR again did not act whatsofever on suspending the game from their book. BETFAIR is looking to make 250K over this 1. They will ignore all comments or complains.
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andyfuller
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Where do you get this figure from?enzabella2009 wrote:BETFAIR is looking to make 250K over this 1.
Unless you have insider knowledge it is impossible to know how much Betfair make from any event as you have no way of knowing what individuals win on the market.
It is possible (of course it will not happen) for any amount of money you name to be traded on an event and Betfair to make nothing from the event.
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enzabella2009
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There will be one big fat winner. Have you followed chievo vs catania? do you know that there was one big fat winner? that big fat winner is involved in vicenza vs crotone 2nite game and betfair did not suspended his/her account. premium charges make betfair to close their eyes, ears and mouth..but they can`t hold or hide all the informations.
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andyfuller
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I did follow it but you can not possibly know for certain what you state unless you have insider Betfair knowledge. I am sure there were bigger winners but we can not know unless we have access to peoples accounts. Likewise we can not know what Betfair make in terms of commission from markets without access to peoples accounts.
For all we know whoever was laying the 1-1 could also have been the person backing it, though I would doubt it was.
But if people are backing unusual amounts on results you have to remember that someone else is willing to lay these amounts and they are significant amounts. I wouldn't have been laying these amounts given the 'smell' around this match but it seems others were happy to lay the amounts.
For all we know whoever was laying the 1-1 could also have been the person backing it, though I would doubt it was.
But if people are backing unusual amounts on results you have to remember that someone else is willing to lay these amounts and they are significant amounts. I wouldn't have been laying these amounts given the 'smell' around this match but it seems others were happy to lay the amounts.
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enzabella2009
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that is how much betfair silence worth... 
.
I can bet you whatever you like that you won`t find a bookmaker in the world that will take on a bet of 1-1 for 2nite game Vicenza vs Crotone. if they did, it will be voided soon after. in the statistics department where i work you do have some aknowldge how much they could be making ...obviuosly we can`t be always right. last sunday we made a big mistake about the draw ( chievo vs catania). according to our maths ( statistically speaking)the draw should have been on 2.92 and on betfair 2.98, insted it was on 1.9
.I can bet you whatever you like that you won`t find a bookmaker in the world that will take on a bet of 1-1 for 2nite game Vicenza vs Crotone. if they did, it will be voided soon after. in the statistics department where i work you do have some aknowldge how much they could be making ...obviuosly we can`t be always right. last sunday we made a big mistake about the draw ( chievo vs catania). according to our maths ( statistically speaking)the draw should have been on 2.92 and on betfair 2.98, insted it was on 1.9
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andyfuller
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I'll have as much as I can on that bet please - as Betfair love to keep reminding us, they are a bookmaker and I am sure they won't be voiding the market, it's all about the £££££ for them!enzabella2009 wrote:I can bet you whatever you like that you won`t find a bookmaker in the world that will take on a bet of 1-1 for 2nite game Vicenza vs Crotone.
Will be interesting to see tonight's result!
What price should the draw and 1-1 be?
Even more bizarrely, the price of a 0-0 draw is 8.0, whereas you can back a 1-1 draw at 2.54!
So it would appear that the market thinks that there is a greater than evens chance that there will be a draw, but it's highly unlikely that this will be the result of no goals being scored! Bizarre!
Jeff
So it would appear that the market thinks that there is a greater than evens chance that there will be a draw, but it's highly unlikely that this will be the result of no goals being scored! Bizarre!
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:The draw is at 1.65! Has anyone ever seen a draw at such a low price?
Jeff