13 Oct 2017 - Italy v Sweden - Value lay

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northbound
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:53 pm

In a nutshell, my opinion is that Italy shouldn't be higher than 2.00 to beat Sweden tonight. Therefore, the current available lay price (1.53) is massive value.

EDITED 18:16: I meant they SHOULD BE higher than 2.00 :)

Italy never played convincingly under this manager even though they are ranked 15th in the world and their group stage opponents were all ranked 70th in the world or lower (beside Spain). Sweden are ranked 25th.

Some argue that there's a lack of talent in the Italian squad, but it's also true that the manager often employs tactics (e.g. 4-2-4) that all players in the squad are unfamiliar with. By watching them play, you have the distinct feeling that these players don't know what to do on the pitch.

Also, I believe that Italy's odds are heavily influenced by the fact that "it's Italy and surely they'll qualify". But at these odds, they are a a lay all day.
Last edited by northbound on Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Crazyskier
Posts: 373
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:44 pm

northbound wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:53 pm
"it's Italy and surely they'll qualify".

They've not failed to qualify for 70 years, and though your points are valid, they'll scrape a 2-0 I'm fairly confident. I'd expect a cagey start and at 4.2 the draw might have some value to cash in around 30 mins possibly...

CS

northbound
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:51 pm

Crazyskier wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:44 pm
I'd expect a cagey start and at 4.2 the draw might have some value to cash in around 30 mins possibly...
Agree

Kafkaesque
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:08 pm

northbound wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:53 pm
In a nutshell, my opinion is that Italy shouldn't be higher than 2.00 to beat Sweden tonight. Therefore, the current available lay price (1.53) is massive value.

Italy never played convincingly under this manager even though they are ranked 15th in the world and their group stage opponents were all ranked 70th in the world or lower (beside Spain). Sweden are ranked 25th.

Some argue that there's a lack of talent in the Italian squad, but it's also true that the manager often employs tactics (e.g. 4-2-4) that all players in the squad are unfamiliar with. By watching them play, you have the distinct feeling that these players don't know what to do on the pitch.

Also, I believe that Italy's odds are heavily influenced by the fact that "it's Italy and surely they'll qualify". But at these odds, they are a a lay all day.
I'd agree, and whatever you happen to believe the correct price to be, it seems peculiar, that the price kept shortening on Italy a few days in the reverse fixture. Italy then play a match where they hardly look like scoring (though Sweden didn't either), and now the same thing happens to the Italy price in the last 12-16 hours again this time around.

northbound
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:18 pm

Indeed.

BTW I've just edited the original post, as I meant they should be higher than 2.00, rather than "shouldn't be higher than 2.00".

LinusP
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:15 pm

northbound wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:18 pm
Indeed.

BTW I've just edited the original post, as I meant they should be higher than 2.00, rather than "shouldn't be higher than 2.00".
Oct 2017? :D

northbound
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:24 pm

LinusP wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:15 pm
Oct 2017? :D
Oh my, clearly too many mental energies were spent on preplay horses trading today, so I couldn't even get the date right :lol:

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ruthlessimon
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:54 pm

an interesting stat. From what I remember, I think over 1.5 goals was very very short

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northbound
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Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:17 pm

Simon, you can get 2.20 for Under 1.5 Goals on tomorrow night’s playoff game Ireland v Denmark.

Might be worth getting involved with a back bet, with a view to perhaps lay inplay at around 1.50

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