Football trading : My Daily Trading Results - Football Trading

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 pm

Dear Community

I have developed a football trading strategy which I believe is capable of generating some special returns. Its a unique style and philosophy and I will discuss more about it as this journey picks up pace.

When I embarked on this journey a few weeks ago it was just a struggle because when trading on your own with no-one looking over your shoulder you are prone to moments of madness and rule bending. So what I felt would help was if I could share my results in this community so that at least I can feel some level of accountability.

I am starting with a bank of £1000. Using around 3-4% of my bank for each trade. I believe in the power of high reward to risk type strategies so I expected to make anything up to twice the size of my trading liability with a win rate in the region of 60%.

However I just wanted some confirmation that me posting my daily results are OK and doesn't violate forum rules.

theuktrader

MarkStephenCahill
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:38 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:15 am

Hi Fella i really appreciate that i wonder if you can help me a bit?
When im trading football 0.5 or 2.5 over under i tried to use offset with a trailor stop to lock in a profit only when there is a goal it doesnt cash out where it should and there is a huge loss instead of a locked in profit.
The global settings was on properly i have no idea why that happend if you could shed light on that it would be great.
Cheers Mark :roll:

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megarain
Posts: 857
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Location: megarainuk.blogspot.com

Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:49 am

Daily results ?

So, are u going to allow proof-reading of tips, or just say, u backed xxx at xx and won/lost x ?

Any one showing a method etc, is normally encouraged. Any one after-timing, tends to get a hard time.

Play well.

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:36 am

OK so here goes the journey. The strategy is built on identifying the most likely games where goals will be scored in the last 15-20 minutes of a match. The edge I have is in my match selection and looking for key momentum factors whilst the match is in process. Obviously a key aspect is the money management side and ensuring I have a positive expectation. The method I am using is quite unique which you will see by the results over coming days and coming weeks. Naturally the position sizing will increase week by week as the bank grows.

14th December 2018

DAILY PROFIT = £38.20
PROJECT PROFIT = £38.20

Attached file shows confirmation
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Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:50 am

megarain wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:49 am
Any one showing a method etc, is normally encouraged. Any one after-timing, tends to get a hard time.

Play well.
+1

If you have been around these forums for a while you will know that there have been one or two posters that have put up faked results. Its not that difficult to forge the BF profit and loss page, just look on line and there are even blank templates available for you to fill in.

I am not saying that you have forged your results, but posting up a page BF p & l results page does not really provide confirmation.

Angelbaby
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:49 pm

Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:11 am

I would say if its fake so what unless the poster is trying to sell something which I assume isn't allowed here any way. It might create debate where people can learn which is after all what fourms like this are about.

Good luck with your journey

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:23 pm

This is actually more for my benefit in terms of just subconsciously helping me to stay discplined. There is no benefit me putting up fake results simply don't have that luxury of time to waste.
Furthermore unless you watch me login to Betfair or create a face to face training program there would be no other way of being able to 100% address any doubts.
Goodness already doubters with only £38 profit..what's going to happen if my profits start hitting the 100s... : :shock: :shock: :D :shock: :shock:

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:26 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:36 am
OK so here goes the journey. The strategy is built on identifying the most likely games where goals will be scored in the last 15-20 minutes of a match. The edge I have is in my match selection and looking for key momentum factors whilst the match is in process. Obviously a key aspect is the money management side and ensuring I have a positive expectation. The method I am using is quite unique which you will see by the results over coming days and coming weeks. Naturally the position sizing will increase week by week as the bank grows.

14th December 2018

DAILY PROFIT = £38.20
PROJECT PROFIT = £38.20

Attached file shows confirmation
I'm all for people bringing things to the table, that'll encourage debate and exchange of ideas. Also, I completely get where you're coming from with "someone looking over your shoulder". A few notes though:

If you feel, you need that someone over the shoulder to avoid mistakes, then that is something, you should still look to work at, rather than expect this to be a solution. At the end of the day, we're all just a bunch of nicks and avatars to you and you're not accountable to us in any way just because you start a thread on an internet forum. Once you hit a downswing - and you will with that approach - posting here will not be quite as much fun, and it will come tumbling down unless you've looked at the underlying issues behind any bad decisions.

Unique approach really is a bold statement. Especially after just a few weeks on here, and with a strategy you've for all intents and purposes just started. Maybe tone it down a bit if you want more positive response and feedback, rather than seasoned veterans thinking, "oh, here's another one who thinks, he's cracked it in two hours, and will be gone in two months or less". Likewise, with your expected returns and winrate.

Finally, I may well be missing something, but I'm failing to see much a trading angle here. Based on very little thus far, granted. You're entering a market at a time, when the price is only moving one way. And fast! You can - pretty much - never trade out for a profit. If you end with a plus, it's a trade (or rather bet, I'd say) won. Likewise, given that you've likely, based on the information posted, entered with 15-20 minutes left, and since the 4th goal in the match went in around the 87th minute (if memory serves me), when the price will have dropped significantly, there doesn't appear to be much of a stop-loss either. It seems to me to be more gambling that another goal will come, than actually being trading. If I'm wrong, and you're managing to trade in and out in that scenario without basically just holding a big liability most of the time, while waiting for a goal, then I take the above back, and it truly is unique.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3451
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:10 pm

MarkStephenCahill wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:15 am
Hi Fella i really appreciate that i wonder if you can help me a bit?
When im trading football 0.5 or 2.5 over under i tried to use offset with a trailor stop to lock in a profit only when there is a goal it doesnt cash out where it should and there is a huge loss instead of a locked in profit.
The global settings was on properly i have no idea why that happend if you could shed light on that it would be great.
Cheers Mark :roll:
It's becaue after a goal the market reforms and your stop loss price is long gone. It's best to watch how the market works before you put any money down.

theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:34 pm

Thanks Kafkaesque

This strategy is one which I have been using for a number of years. I am actually quite an experienced trader but have realized humbleness is the best trait to have. I have started with a £1000 account to show how I can grow an account without it having to start off with £5000 or more. If I came in talking about how much I make from my larger accounts the hounds of negativity would have been all over me.

Anyway lets see how it goes with this project because the proof of something is really down to what the bank is saying week after week and month after month.

In regards to the strategy there were simply 4 things I am concerned with

position sizing
win rate
reward to risk ratio
potential number of trades per week

For me a strategy which historically wins around 60% of the time with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio and where there are around 25-30 potential trades per week has a positive expectancy. Rather than looking at the odds and thinking time is running out so i am likely to lose, its about over the course of 50-100 trades understanding whether the combination of the above 4 factors can produce a profitable system consistently.

As I mentioned simply just picking matches because of a hunch or through sheer random choices will never win but i seem to have identified particular metrics which fortunately see me come out around the 60-65% win rate. Sometimes it can be down to 50% for the week, other times as high as 70% but the power of the reward to risk ratio means that I can afford for my win rate to drop below 60% and still remain profitable. But over time it has averaged around the 60% mark.

The most important thing for me is the pyschology. How can you be strong mentally enough to go into a trade knowing that time is running out...Its completely by understanding the statistics behind the strategy and knowing its a probability game. Its no longer a case of placing a trade then sitting there biting my nails hoping to hear euler say "this match has been suspended" only to then realize it was suspended not because of a goal but because of a red card (hate those). I place the trade and walk away or place the next trade that meets the criteria.

I think in blocks of 30 trades....This protects me against myself when I get 4 losing trades in a row.

Anyway lets see how this moves forward....And pot luck my first trade for today was a losing trade....Liverpool U23 vs Whoever....Normally I like to maintain at least 4-6 trades if possible as it just means over the course of each month thats 100 trades or thereabouts which means even if I won just 50%, with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio I am profitable indeeed.

Ok back to what really matters now. Trading and producing results.

Cheers Mate

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