Football trading : Football trading on Betfair - Who scores first?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 3793
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:29 am

Interesting video Peter, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIcf32IvMvA

Did you find this by looking back at the stats or purely with maths? If both, how closely did they tally?

Is this anything to do with the fact the if the underdog scores first the price doesn't move as far as most people think it will? That is, it's not as unlikely as they imaging on the price journey of the likely winner. These traders get their first goal more often than they think they will, but the gain for each is less than they thought it would be, thanks to people in the know keeping the market truely efficient by not giving that goal much respect.

Dinkydid1
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:47 am

Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:32 am

As a newbie I found it very interesting. Having found the courses now on the academy (Could do with giving you some feed back on them) I thought I would give the automation a try.
So set it up to back the draw, as I thought well it put a £10.00 back bet on Yeovil at 40.0 never noticed until about 15 mins later as it had not greened up reason I had not noticed was I put it on a few others that was a laugh on some it bet the home team some it bet the away team some it bet the draw must have another look at it. Well to cut a long story short I greened up on Yeovil and it green at £13.00 about having reduced to about 16.00. Pity I was in Practice Mode.
That brings me to last night Liverpool v West Brom thought I put £2.00 Back bet at 27.00 on W Brom.
I traded out at Winning £14.00 My question really is was this gambling or trading.
The Reason I ask is as a newbie was I bloody barmy to Back West Brom. It was only a hunch I had.
The Yeovil one taught me a little about the way odds move but would anyone have backed Yeovil. To catch the odds movement

Will have to get my automation fixed so off back to practice mode.
Thanks to the online course I have gone back to the beginning I now understand where I was going wrong.

User avatar
Euler
Posts: 16441
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:12 pm

I approach every problem both ways.

I collect data, look for patterns and then try and describe them with an algorithm or formula. That way I can look at historical data and describe it accurately, but then use that to project forward and look at more abstract parts of the market, but also explore what influences it.

The takeout on the video is that, from a trading perspective, profitable positions tend to be created in the least likely areas of the market and that, where there appears to be the most certainty, the pay off isn't perhaps quite as riskless as you may think.

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 3793
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:24 pm

Thanks for the info.

Edit : are there any public databases of starting prices and goal times?

User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 9482
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:06 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:24 pm
Thanks for the info.

Edit : are there any public databases of starting prices and goal times?
You can download all the goal time data from this thread
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14776

and the historical bookmaker prices here
http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests