Thanks Dallas,
I think I have found a way to place a 4th bet at half-time which means we eat into our 0 - 0 profit but secures a profit overall if the game finishes 0 - 0 or a goal is scored in the 2nd half of the match.
That should be more favourable stats wise.
So, we need games to be 0 - 0 at half time and then we don't care what happens at the end of the game.
This means...
We either breakeven 1st half if a goal is scored or we make a profit 2nd half regardless of what happens.
Breakeven or Win
- BetScalper
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- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
yes, i do have a small thought as i play on ou15 and ou25 all the time. ou15 would be sitting at about 1.9-2.0 at ht with no goals. the 1ou15 market usually opens between about 1.2 and 1.4 odds, depending on the game, so might be scope to grab the early odds there.BetScalper wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:08 amHi Jim,
I could be wrong but it looks like lay o1.5 but i need to do some more research on what the average o1.5 odds are at half-time if the score is 0 - 0 etc
Any thoughts ?
Cheers,
- BetScalper
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That was my thinking. Looking at the various odds on offer in the different markets then Liverpool v Man City game looks prime for testing this theory.jimibt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:17 amyes, i do have a small thought as i play on ou15 and ou25 all the time. ou15 would be sitting at about 1.9-2.0 at ht with no goals. the 1ou15 market usually opens between about 1.2 and 1.4 odds, depending on the game, so might be scope to grab the early odds there.BetScalper wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:08 amHi Jim,
I could be wrong but it looks like lay o1.5 but i need to do some more research on what the average o1.5 odds are at half-time if the score is 0 - 0 etc
Any thoughts ?
Cheers,
Cheers Jim.
good luck - it's the little combos like this that i love, where staking and hedging balance can take you into either a breakeven or a decent win. there are 2-3 other similar markets that i use similar approaches on to good effect (0-0 vs AO fave on the CS market for example).
keep us posted.
keep us posted.
- BetScalper
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Interesting...jimibt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:37 amgood luck - it's the little combos like this that i love, where staking and hedging balance can take you into either a breakeven or a decent win. there are 2-3 other similar markets that i use similar approaches on to good effect (0-0 vs AO fave on the CS market for example).
keep us posted.
I am actually thinking that we could dutch lay 3 different markets but 1 of the dutch's would be placed at half-time, if needed.
The 3 different market odds would need to be 1.05, 3.5 and 5.0 (Decimal).
Liquidity on the Liverpool v Man City games shouldn't be a problem in those markets.
I think you are missing the third scenario that could lead to a loss. All calculations assume 5% commission and you get the odds stated
Scenario 1 - Goal first half
Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay but win £99.75 on the lay HT 0-0. Net result -£0.25
Scenario 2 - No goals
Win £950 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and lose £420 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £372.5
Scenario 3 - No goals first half, goal in second half
Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and win £99.75 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £-157.75
Scenario 1 - Goal first half
Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay but win £99.75 on the lay HT 0-0. Net result -£0.25
Scenario 2 - No goals
Win £950 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and lose £420 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £372.5
Scenario 3 - No goals first half, goal in second half
Lose £100 on the over 0.5 lay, lose £157.5 on the HT 0-0 lay and win £99.75 on the CS 0-0 lay. Net result £-157.75
having looked into this in a bit more detail, i'm afraid to say that finding games that have the required balance on the opening ou05 and ht 0-0 is proving to be a little difficult, that said, maybe the greater reality on those odds can be used in some other fashion, but you certainly need the ou05 odds to be sub 1.07 before seriously looking at any combos here...
[edit] - maybe Celtic v Dundee could be used in a slightly different way? https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .141933063
[edit] - maybe Celtic v Dundee could be used in a slightly different way? https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .141933063
I see what I was missing now. The full-time 0-0 lay bet would have to be for £257.50+commission to cover the first two bets, leaving a liability of over £1000.BetScalper wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:51 pmHi,
I am no expert, so bear with me.....
A. Lay £100 (Liability) on Over 0.5 @ 1.10 = Win £1100 (Less commission) or Lose £100.
B. Lay £105 on Half-time correct score 0 - 0 @ 2.5 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £150.
If a goal is scored then you roughly breakeven. I think.
However, if no goal is scored then at half-time you Lay £105 on Correct score 0-0 @ 5.0 = Win £105 (Less commission) or lose £420.
At the end of the game you either breakeven or you win £1100 - (£150 + 420) = £530 less commission.
Thoughts or did I get it totally wrong ?
Cheers,
At least it got us all thinking!
- Kafkaesque
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It's a bit like this oldie but goodie. Not sure if it was ever debated on here (as it was doing the rounds way before my time here). Probably a hoax imho though.
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gam ... half-time/
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gam ... half-time/
The strategy being discussed and then found not to really work was a great try and sometimes it can be so emotionally draining to think you have found something only to then realize there is an Achilles heel in the thought process.
Unfortunately the betfair exchange is terribly efficient when it comes to football and as others have said doesn't provide the swing opportunities you would get in tennis or darts and there is no perfect balance you find between any combination of markets without there being a level of liability lurking somewhere.
That said there are still ways to profit on football trading but its a matter of embracing strategies where your reward is greater than your risk and finding a win rate that helps to ensure there is a positive expectancy over many trades and understanding the behaviour of the normal distribution process.
Cheers
Mel (The Scientia Trader)
Unfortunately the betfair exchange is terribly efficient when it comes to football and as others have said doesn't provide the swing opportunities you would get in tennis or darts and there is no perfect balance you find between any combination of markets without there being a level of liability lurking somewhere.
That said there are still ways to profit on football trading but its a matter of embracing strategies where your reward is greater than your risk and finding a win rate that helps to ensure there is a positive expectancy over many trades and understanding the behaviour of the normal distribution process.
Cheers
Mel (The Scientia Trader)