My thoughts on Southampton

[wearthefoxhat]

Speaking of the FA Cup Semi Finals

Man Utd v Tottenham is very interesting...

Market pricing it like a home game for Tottenham (they play home games at Wembley)

For reference odds for PL corresponding fixture:

Tottenham 2.3x

Man Utd 3.4

Draw 3.3

If we assume these odds were correct, then I think there is value on Man Utd in the FA Cup.

The crowd accounts for the home advantage, not the grass length or pitch dimensions.

Good approach on that one. Maybe trade the FA Cup winners outright market whilst the semi final is IP.

[Trading96]

Speaking of the FA Cup Semi Finals

Man Utd v Tottenham is very interesting...

Market pricing it like a home game for Tottenham (they play home games at Wembley)

For reference odds for PL corresponding fixture:

Tottenham 2.3x

Man Utd 3.4

Draw 3.3

If we assume these odds were correct, then I think there is value on Man Utd in the FA Cup.

The crowd accounts for the home advantage, not the grass length or pitch dimensions.

Good approach on that one. Maybe trade the FA Cup winners outright market whilst the semi final is IP.

Yes pretty big drift a Tottenham now today which is a good thing, if it breaks 2.5 convincingly won't need to take risk in play.

[SeaHorseRacing]

It’s not very often I get a sleepless night over a football game. Come on Saints!!! Europe football next season could be our ticket back to PL.

[brimson25]

1.4 is very clearly the wrong price on Chelsea. Good luck.

[Kafkaesque]

It’s not very often I get a sleepless night over a football game. Come on Saints!!! Europe football next season could be our ticket back to PL.

Made this point in another thread, but if rules allow it, the sensible thing, for me, would be to pass on playing Europe (assuming you go down). Not trying your bubble on a big day for you guys, as I'll be cheering you on. However, assume a guessismate of 6 games in Europe and 8 in the two domestic cups, then it's a 60-match season. If the calendar is the same as this year, there's 275 days in the season making it about a match every 4.6 days. That's a tough schedule a top-tuned PL-side. For a team dropping into a more physical league, needing to rebuild a team but having little to no training time to do so, it's more likely a Sunderland-ticket than a PL one.

[ShaunWhite]

So much pessimism, I still have soton saved by goal diff on the last day condemning West Ham.

The championship is not a place you want to be. Widely regarded as the toughest league in Europe it's a different place to what it was when Palace were going up and down every other season. Players leave, receipts go down, everything needs to be restructured and every other team is settled and in their groove. I'm not seeing many bounce backs recently. Your away match mileage will probably go up a lot too?

I'm pessimistic about my lot though to be frank, 30 seems to big for the drop and I like to have a small consolation to offset some of the misery of going down. I suppose I've just seen too many years when we've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. At one point I thought we'd officially changed our name to 'sorry 10 men Palace'. Prices like 2.1 for us to beat Lei are crazy.

I've been rooting for soton in the (sweet) FA cup, but only because it's been a distraction you clearly didn't need. If I supported a top flight club it would be different but at the bottom everyone is a threat.

[ruthlessimon]

Surprised Swansea conceded 5 - that's really messed up their goal diff.

If Saints beat Bournemouth - which they bloody should (if we can't, we deserve to go down) - but also I think at the back of their minds the Bournemouth folk (& players) would like to see Saints stay up, & hopefully won't be as sharp as they can be.

Swansea away then decides who of the two goes down. God that game will be tense!

But the really fascinating game is Stoke vs Swansea on the last day. God knows how that affects things!! Someone needs to create a result permutation matrix!

[Naffman]

Swansea play Stoke at home and Saints play Man City at home

Saints need to be a few clear by the last game but surely the way they're playing they won't be

Do you need Adkins, we scored 5 yesterday

[ShaunWhite]

Why would Bournmouth want to see you stay up, don't you have any local rivalry down there Any other derby and you'd expect sparks especially when one's still new to the pl and suffered years of watching the other in the limelight.

Results matrix : I've done little else since mid February, as usual.

[ruthlessimon]

Is there a big Saints Bournemouth rivalry? Pompey certainly , but not sure about Bournemouth

But my opinion does certainly bias it, as I was desperate to see Bournemouth get promoted to the prem - & last season I didn't want to see Bournemouth go down.

It's probably down to the fact I don't remember many (any!!) games against Bournemouth when Saints were languishing in the champ