We have tons of stats in the office. If you like we can post up some data on key matches. I guess some of it depends on what you are looking for but here is a taster: -
We found 22 matches in our database that were a very close match for this game.
11 were away wins or 50%, implied odds of 2.00
6 were home wins or 27% / 3.65
4 were draws or 18% / 5.50
The matches produced an average of 2.50 goals, 0.90 to the home team and 1.60 to the away team.
Additional factors you should take into account on the game is the local derby angle and also the importance of the game to both teams.
Spurs vs Chelsea
Interesting, the stats I would work to on a match such as this where the away team has a 16 point advantage as Chelsea had before the kick-off are
41% home
35% Draw
24% Away
I suppose that it just goes to show that the old saying "There are lies, damned lies and statistics" is as true today as theday it was coined,,
cheers, P
41% home
35% Draw
24% Away
I suppose that it just goes to show that the old saying "There are lies, damned lies and statistics" is as true today as theday it was coined,,
cheers, P
Wigan vs Arsenal true odds:
Home:11
Draw:4.2
Away:1.50 (I backed Arsenal on 1.61 for 1000£ my lay bet in 1.54)
Liverpool vs West Ham
Home: 1.48
Draw: 4.3
Away: 12
Portsmouth vs Aston Villa
Home:8.2
Draw:3.95
Away:1.62 (Backed at 1.71 layed at 1.65)
GL All
Home:11
Draw:4.2
Away:1.50 (I backed Arsenal on 1.61 for 1000£ my lay bet in 1.54)
Liverpool vs West Ham
Home: 1.48
Draw: 4.3
Away: 12
Portsmouth vs Aston Villa
Home:8.2
Draw:3.95
Away:1.62 (Backed at 1.71 layed at 1.65)
GL All
Hi Petardo,
following your post I've had a look at todays games. Unfortunately my stats., whilst based on 3 seasons of actual results (about 530 matches, still a tiny sample I know) tend to fly in the face of what appears obvious, so they're not a lot of use for pre-match trading. Anyway todays games come out as follows :-
Wigan/Arsenal
Home 15% - 6.75
Draw 61% - 1.63 (see what I mean about flying in the face of the obvious?)
Away 24% - 4.13
Portsmouth/Villa
Home 14% - 7.18
Draw 62% - 1.61
Away 24% - 4.13
These are "mean" figures and there is, of course, a significant standard deviation associated with them.
I know a lot of the lads and at least one lass is interested in football, it might prove interesting, next season to have a small competition to see how we all fare in the forecast stakes,
cheers, P
following your post I've had a look at todays games. Unfortunately my stats., whilst based on 3 seasons of actual results (about 530 matches, still a tiny sample I know) tend to fly in the face of what appears obvious, so they're not a lot of use for pre-match trading. Anyway todays games come out as follows :-
Wigan/Arsenal
Home 15% - 6.75
Draw 61% - 1.63 (see what I mean about flying in the face of the obvious?)
Away 24% - 4.13
Portsmouth/Villa
Home 14% - 7.18
Draw 62% - 1.61
Away 24% - 4.13
These are "mean" figures and there is, of course, a significant standard deviation associated with them.
I know a lot of the lads and at least one lass is interested in football, it might prove interesting, next season to have a small competition to see how we all fare in the forecast stakes,
cheers, P
Wigan vs Arsenal
What a game lol If I do my strategy from Italy serie A I would get another big win.
The question it`s for how long back are the stats actuall.You can compare 10 years ,but after 10 years it`s a absolutely diferent game.IMO 3-5 years it`s enough.
What a game lol If I do my strategy from Italy serie A I would get another big win.
The question it`s for how long back are the stats actuall.You can compare 10 years ,but after 10 years it`s a absolutely diferent game.IMO 3-5 years it`s enough.
Prediction what odds have you for Liverpool? I got 1.48 and waiting now in 1.49 with 500£ to close my trade.I layed it in 1.40 Today was very interesting moving odds in Arsenal pre-match . 10 ticks up and down just before start. If I get this movements I will play with 5K I`m just searching and recording everything and try to find out why and when this movements are.I got nice profit with Udinese today. One month I will not green out my pre-mach trade and will see what`s most profitable.
Tommorow we will see if I get 1.49 I don`t have experience with this. I just lay or back if the odds are good for me. Have to find out what can change the odds. I`m unlucky started trading in end of the season.
Got today my low liability new strategy which I never see enywhere else and nearly double my bankroll. I do punting in Italy serie A as well for what I have 50 times bigger bankroll than for trading. Making money for living.
I find out as well to get even for strategy 1-1 if early goal,without afect my winnings. Just need to get everything in right time.
Got today my low liability new strategy which I never see enywhere else and nearly double my bankroll. I do punting in Italy serie A as well for what I have 50 times bigger bankroll than for trading. Making money for living.
I find out as well to get even for strategy 1-1 if early goal,without afect my winnings. Just need to get everything in right time.
There are a lot of stats we have here. The main forecasting database we use is only about 0.10% out over a season, but this forecasting mechanism quite often tracks the Betfair price. Shows occasional value but the markets are pretty accurate. Happy to post and have a longer discussion on forecasting if there is interest.
Any discussion is very good. I`m everything relaying on stats and the odds.I did only few trades pre-match in soccer ,but I think it depends on the first value position to get in and you don`t need to worry about direction of the odds until something happend what you and market don`t expect. I got Liverpool on 1.48 odds so I layed him in 1.40 for value. The market was right and most money was round 1.48 and finished in 1.51 pre-match.