Football trading (Soccer) : World Cup Wisdom

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brimson25
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed May 16, 2018 1:16 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 11:47 am
brimson25 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 3:23 pm
There seems to be very little out there of much value right now.
The nature of this beast is that it's more subjective than most, given that the top teams so very rarely play each other in meaningful matches. My, highly subjective, opinion is that there's almost nothing but value! It's a bit too early doors for me, as I don't want funds tied up for this long, but if prices remain as they are, I'll be loading the proverbial gun heavier than I've ever done for a tourny. I'm not having the current pricing, and there's value to me across the board, because the current front runners are so based on recent accomplishments in major tournaments, which aren't all that recent in actual fact, more than actual strength advantages.

For a tournament with this structure, I'm looking for: Overall strength of starting 11 + head coach - Striker options - Team/squad synergy - The defensive axis of 3-4 players (Defensive mid + 2-3 CB's depending on system) - Squad strength. In that order of importance.

On the first one, which goes without saying as being the most important, there's very little to separate the top 6 (maybe 7 if we're being kind to England) teams imo. On several of the other counts there's big questions over Brazil, Germany, and Spain. To me France should be the shortest price, followed by Belgium, and only then Brazil. And no, I haven't been smoking funny tobacco :lol:

Germany, England, Spain, and Brazil are too short a price for me. Again in that order. Belgium, France, Argentina, Columbia, and possibly Croatia are too big a price. Not quite sure Columbia has what it takes to go all the way, but if the price remains, I'm most certainly looking to get in, with a strong possibility of trading out, given that they have a manageable group. A group win would, most likely among many scenarioes, lead to England and then Germany, which given my overall thoughts is easier in reality than on paper imo. Croatia, because of the price and the fact that the winner of Group D will have the easiest route of anyone to the semis. The bottom half of the bracket looks the easier one overall to me.

Now, I'll just wait for the tournament to begin and for me to crash and burn on most of those comments :o
I agree with you, mostly. (Ironically, I actually meant value with respect to valuable previews or commentary etc to collect on this thread, not value in terms of incorrect prices).

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Wed May 16, 2018 2:00 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 12:53 pm

Yeah he's certainly got them looking like the old Brazil again but a lot hangs on Neymar especially with Dani Alves ruled out.
If Neymar doesnt make it or isnt 100% I dont see who else in that team can 'lead' them to the title.
Rumours would have it that he will play, even if it's on croutches. Likely not true, but the stink is so bad on Brazil and Nike from 98, that implicationis more important than truth, and it could have a huge adverse effect, if Neymar doesn't perform and continues to be selected. Especially, with the coach already going on an ego trip, imo, and risked dividing the squad by his starting 11 stunt months ago.
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 12:53 pm
As for England Southgate has done a better job than I thought he would but individually they dont have the players of the other market leaders and its a long time since they actually convinced anyone at a major tournament, probably Euro 96?
I actually think they're closer than they're giving credit for, in terms of quality. Fwiw, my take is that the dirty little secret is that they're building for 2020 and 2022, which the FA, Southgate and the squad knows. You just cannot say that out loud in England. Quality or not, there's just an insane amount of doubt about too many things right now. Who's even looking like starting. Walker, Kane, and probably Sterling. The rest is anybody's guess. Did he even decide on a captain yet?
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 12:53 pm
And then the usual 'dark horses' that get a mention at World Cup time Colombia who usually turn crap once out of Sth America so wouldnt be surprised to see them out in the group stage, Croatia whose only world class player is Modric but he's getting on a bit, Brozivic and Perisic who are over-rated and just dont turn up in big games for club or country not to mention they have Lovren as a centre back, Belgium fantastic squad but they have a poor mans Guardiola as coach who's never seemed to understand the concept of defending.
You're passing judgement on the value of 50/1-ish shot in Columbia based on how they perform outside of SA, which happens at most every four years, and last did in 1998?

Are you making that Modric judgement based on DOB or actually seeing him play? To me, he looks a better player right now, than he ever did before. And reverse biased, if that's a thing. As a Spurs fan, I'll hate his guts forever, but objectively he's in the top 3 number 8's in the world imo, easy. I'll make the claim of Rakitic being world class as well. I agree that the rest of their attacking aces are a level below the best, and the defence could be an issue. They are however priced accordingly. So whether there's value and they have an actual shot is a meeeehhhhhh kind of thing.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Martinez, me thinks ;)

Trader Pat
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 3:15 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 2:00 pm
You're passing judgement on the value of 50/1-ish shot in Columbia based on how they perform outside of SA, which happens at most every four years, and last did in 1998?

Are you making that Modric judgement based on DOB or actually seeing him play? To me, he looks a better player right now, than he ever did before. And reverse biased, if that's a thing. As a Spurs fan, I'll hate his guts forever, but objectively he's in the top 3 number 8's in the world imo, easy. I'll make the claim of Rakitic being world class as well. I agree that the rest of their attacking aces are a level below the best, and the defence could be an issue. They are however priced accordingly. So whether there's value and they have an actual shot is a meeeehhhhhh kind of thing.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Martinez, me thinks ;)
Take your point about Colombia but its worth also remembering that the Sth American teams just play each other over and over again and their styles of play change very little from one qualification cycle to another with the exception maybe of Chile under Sampaoli. So its very easy to flatter to deceive in their qualifying campaign. I think that will be borne out in the WC itself with the exception of Brazil, I think Colombia and Uruguay will struggle. People are jumping on the fact that because Colombia were impressive in qualifying that they should be a dark horse for the WC, just dont see it especially because it may as well be being played on another planet in Russia.

As for Modric I already said he's a world class player but pulling the strings for Croatia is totally different that doing it for Real. He'll probably have to do more running than he's used to.

And Martinez, well I think the Belgian FA missed a massive trick, with the players at their disposal they should have broke the bank and hired a top class coach. If they did that they definitely would be one of the favourites. Unfortunately they seem to be like the Argentina FA, pretty clueless. Argentina have made some shocking appointments over the last 20 years none more so than Maradona, a better coach and they could have won the 2010 WC.

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Korattt
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 6:28 pm

piss poor England squad to take to Russia, are they going just to make the numbers up or to participate?

If I had my way it would’ve been the following..

GOALKEEPERS (3)

Jordan Pickford (Everton), Jack Butland (Stoke), Joe Hart (West Ham)

DEFENDERS (9)

Chris Smalling (Manchester United), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Phil Jones (Manchester United), Harry Maguire (Leicester), Kyle Walker (Manchester City), Leighton Baines (Everton), Danny Rose (Tottenham), Phil Jagielka (Everton), Ryan Bertrand (Southampton)

MIDFIELDERS (7)

Eric Dier (Tottenham), Michael Carrick (Manchester United), Dele Alli (Tottenham), Mark Noble (West Ham), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City), Ashley Young (Manchester United), James Milner (Liverpool)

FORWARDS (4)

Harry Kane (Tottenham), Jamie Vardy (Leicester), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)

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Kafkaesque
Posts: 226
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Wed May 16, 2018 7:25 pm

brimson25 wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 1:16 pm
I agree with you, mostly. (Ironically, I actually meant value with respect to valuable previews or commentary etc to collect on this thread, not value in terms of incorrect prices).
Ahhhh, I see, my bad :)

You did open the floor to debate, so you'll probably need a new thread for all the value previews, once they flood in, if you want them free of debate I guess.
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 3:15 pm
Take your point about Colombia but its worth also remembering that the Sth American teams just play each other over and over again and their styles of play change very little from one qualification cycle to another with the exception maybe of Chile under Sampaoli. So its very easy to flatter to deceive in their qualifying campaign. I think that will be borne out in the WC itself with the exception of Brazil, I think Colombia and Uruguay will struggle. People are jumping on the fact that because Colombia were impressive in qualifying that they should be a dark horse for the WC, just dont see it especially because it may as well be being played on another planet in Russia.

As for Modric I already said he's a world class player but pulling the strings for Croatia is totally different that doing it for Real. He'll probably have to do more running than he's used to.

And Martinez, well I think the Belgian FA missed a massive trick, with the players at their disposal they should have broke the bank and hired a top class coach. If they did that they definitely would be one of the favourites. Unfortunately they seem to be like the Argentina FA, pretty clueless. Argentina have made some shocking appointments over the last 20 years none more so than Maradona, a better coach and they could have won the 2010 WC.
It was only the quite simplistic argument with outside SA that jumped at me :) And it's a very valid argument with Russia as venue, given how much "continental home field advantage" has been a historical factor, though I would temper it with Russia being less of a European advantage over SA teams than western Europe. FWIW, I'm not jumping on Columbia based on their quals. I'm doing it on the basis of the last WC, the quals this time, and as per my first post here I feel they have a good defensive axis and good striker options (for a dark horse in both cases) and seem to have very good synergy and chemistry as a group.

Not sure breaking the bank is really an option for a medium-sized FA, but I get your point. I don't think Martinez is as bad as his rep, also not defensively, which is why I lead with agree to disagree, because we'll likely never agree ;) Well actually not true. If they look a shambles defensively at the WQ, I'll hold my hands up and admit I was wrong. No matter what though it's worth remembering coaching the defensive side of things becomes a bit easier at international level when you've got a seasoned vet from a top, top team (assuming Kompany stays healthy) flanked by two others who have played together since forever, with all three being natural leaders. Easier than at Everton at least.

Trader Pat
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 7:32 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 7:25 pm
Not sure breaking the bank is really an option for a medium-sized FA, but I get your point.
Fair point but I think any top class manager would jump at the chance of coaching that group of players , just think they could have aimed a bit higher.

Who knows though, 2 months from now we could be saying 'what a world cup final that was between Belgium and Colombia!' :)

Then it will be me holding my hands up saying I know nothing abuot football :D

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LeTiss
Posts: 4113
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 7:51 pm

Changed my mind over England's chances

Can't believe Danny Rose is in - he struggles to play for Spurs these days

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ruthlessimon
Posts: 1002
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 7:56 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 7:51 pm
Changed my mind over England's chances

Can't believe Danny Rose is in - he struggles to play for Spurs these days
Add Jones, Welbeck & Cahill to that list :)

mobius
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

Thu May 17, 2018 6:38 am

I'm gonna upgrade my World Cup kit. For Sale at a very reasonable price to a discerning buyer.
BETANGEL WORLD CUP KIT.PNG
:)
Buy now and tell the missus it's perfect for the Royal Wedding!
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brimson25
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Thu May 17, 2018 9:47 am

mobius wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 6:38 am
I'm gonna upgrade my World Cup kit. For Sale at a very reasonable price to a discerning buyer.
BETANGEL WORLD CUP KIT.PNG
:)
Buy now and tell the missus it's perfect for the Royal Wedding!
I'm quite conservative on TVs - my wife actually prompted us to get a new for the first time in almost a decade. The progress in that time is amazing! I feel daft for waiting for so long. It's just a completely different experience.

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