Football trading : Backing underdogs, can t find the right market

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
offlimit88
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:49 pm

Hi, i have a decent strike rate backing underdogs only at half time.
I back at odds from 3 to 4 and i'm so frustrated i can't find a solution to minimize losses.
My window of playing is from 20' to 45'
If playing in match odds market, if the underdog scores i cash out with 30% of my stake, but if the favourite scores i lose circa 70, 80%. I have of course a lot of tiny losses due to draws, and the make the difference long term.

I tried the "half time" market, it looks viable, but i need time to confirm that, anyway that's not trading anymore.

Can anyone suggest me another market with a better win to lose ratio percentage?

jamesg46
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:52 pm

offlimit88 wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:49 pm
Hi, i have a decent strike rate backing underdogs only at half time.
I back at odds from 3 to 4 and i'm so frustrated i can't find a solution to minimize losses.
My window of playing is from 20' to 45'
If playing in match odds market, if the underdog scores i cash out with 30% of my stake, but if the favourite scores i lose circa 70, 80%. I have of course a lot of tiny losses due to draws, and the make the difference long term.

I tried the "half time" market, it looks viable, but i need time to confirm that, anyway that's not trading anymore.

Can anyone suggest me another market with a better win to lose ratio percentage?
I'm confused, do you back them at half time or from 20 mins up to the 45th

if youre confident in your stratagy, why not try dutching the correct score market, cover 0-0 and the 0-1 or 1-0 depending on the underdog being home or away?

offlimit88
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:04 pm

I back at 20th min.
Well i tried dutching in "half time correct score" market, but losses are huge.
I m looking at full time correct score, but if the underdog scores in first half the odds simply don't change, the market expects other goals

Any ideas?

jamesg46
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:27 pm

offlimit88 wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:04 pm
I back at 20th min.
Well i tried dutching in "half time correct score" market, but losses are huge.
I m looking at full time correct score, but if the underdog scores in first half the odds simply don't change, the market expects other goals

Any ideas?
if the losses are huge then i believe you have answered your own question!!!!!!!

offlimit88
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:57 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:27 pm
offlimit88 wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:04 pm
I back at 20th min.
Well i tried dutching in "half time correct score" market, but losses are huge.
I m looking at full time correct score, but if the underdog scores in first half the odds simply don't change, the market expects other goals

Any ideas?
if the losses are huge then i believe you have answered your own question!!!!!!!
Actually no, simply that is not the right market, don t you agree?

LostShaman
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:09 pm

Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:02 am

Asian Handicap or Next Goal markets may work but there will be far less liquidity.

offlimit88
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:44 pm

LostShaman wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:02 am
Asian Handicap or Next Goal markets may work but there will be far less liquidity.
At the end i chose to stick with first half market. I can't trade out, so this is a bet.
Backing underdogs rewards only later in second half.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1988
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:58 pm

All football markets are derivative of the suprmacy and total goals markets, if you can't make it pay it suggests to me you don't have the right strategy rather than right market. If you're backing underdogs it may be worth you looking at the Asian markets as they're derived from the match odds and you may find you'll get better odds simply due to x-matching and smaller odds increments.

offlimit88
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:41 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:58 pm
All football markets are derivative of the suprmacy and total goals markets, if you can't make it pay it suggests to me you don't have the right strategy rather than right market. If you're backing underdogs it may be worth you looking at the Asian markets as they're derived from the match odds and you may find you'll get better odds simply due to x-matching and smaller odds increments.
Yes they are interesting, but it sound like a "double bet" for me. How many times the underdog scores, then the favourite comes back with 1 or 2 goal in advance?

Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests