Do Traders Typically Give Up Value when Closing Their Positions?

[firlandsfarm]

… closing my trades early (before the final whistle) has cost me potential profits … my profit margin would have been much higher in the long term had I just let my trades run … I lost count of the amount of times I have opened a value back position around half time mark on 2 more goals to be scored, and have closed my position for over 50% stake loss around 70 minute mark when goals haven't arrived yet, only for them to arrive several mins later. And I lost count of the amount of times I laid the leading team, and again closed my position for a loss sometime later, only to see the team get the equaliser in the last minute of the match.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong but a simple test would be to OPEN an opposing 'closing' bet after 70 mins i.e. if you would have layed to close then back and forget and see if you accumulate a profit. You will need to think how you might structure the Automation file but assuming it can be done then run an instance of BA in Practice Mode and see what happens.

[firlandsfarm]

It always struck me as a little strange in Peter's excellent YouTube videos that having traded a horse or two at reverse odds, he would then close his position by greening up at current odds, thereby giving away some value.

Greening-up is all about adding certainty … whoever wins I get X green/red. If you go for reverse greening you are adding an element of uncertainty to your quest for certainty. Neither is right nor wrong it's all about the degree of certainty you strive for and that can vary depending on how the market is behaving.

[Anbell]

Greening-up is all about adding certainty … whoever wins I get X green/red. If you go for reverse greening you are adding an element of uncertainty to your quest for certainty. Neither is right nor wrong it's all about the degree of certainty you strive for and that can vary depending on how the market is behaving.

This is true, but that certainty can be expensive.

I recommend to have a reverse greening profit column, just so that you can see the difference. My reverse greening column often shows a profit value double or more of the greening column, so that certainty costs a whole lot of bucks over a year. Presumably the variance equals out, but that's not certain.

One other option is to reverse green some seconds/minutes before the off, and then clean up with a pure green immediately prior to the off. At least then you are paying the spread on a smaller $ figure.

[firlandsfarm]

This is true, but that certainty can be expensive.

Yep, I think it would be interesting to at least have the option and see the price.

[Tuco]

I recommend to have a reverse greening profit column, just so that you can see the difference.

Yep, I think it would be interesting to at least have the option and see the price.

Suggestions : 'Trade Closure P & L' (current odds) column AND 'Trade Closure P & L' (reverse odds) column

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=21562

...perhaps you guys could add a '+1' to the above BF suggestion?

I'm sure everyone would welcome these updates and additions.

[spreadbetting]

The problem with most traders is that they put a lot of effort into their entry points but very little effort into the exit which is usually based on financial reasons more than anything else. But there are numerous reasons why traders won't want to take the 'value' betting approach so any loss in 'value' is usually a worthwhile loss in the long run. The sooner traders realise they won't ever hit those perfect exit and entry points, 100% of the time ,the easier trading becomes or at least a lot less stressful.

[Jukebox]

The problem with most traders is that they .......

How many have you observed?

[spreadbetting]

Plenty, you only have to read this forum

[Jukebox]

Plenty, you only have to read this forum

I thought so - that many.

[spreadbetting]

You only need to see the amount of people using tick offsets or percentage offset to realise there's maybe not too much effort being placed, maybe next time I better add 'imo' to any posts in case people may worry they're getting pigeon-holed.

[Tuco]

people may worry they're getting pigeon-holed.

...no-one likes being a pigeon

[Jukebox]

You only need to see the amount of people using tick offsets or percentage offset to realise there's maybe not too much effort being placed, maybe next time I better add 'imo' to any posts in case people may worry they're getting pigeon-holed.

It wasn't the pigeon holing I was questioning it was the experience you were calling upon to make the observation.

[Tuco]

Suggestions : 'Trade Closure P & L' (current odds) column AND 'Trade Closure P & L' (reverse odds) column

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=21562

...perhaps you guys could add a '+1' to the above BF suggestion?