Hi
How accurate are the true odds given by Victor the Predictor (http://content.labs.betfair.com/victorthepredictor/)?
Thanks
Jeff
Victor the Predictor
Hi Jeff,
what a question!
Looking at the sites' explanation of The Predictor, it appears that they're trying to extrapolate the probability of results, using patterns identified by the software. The trouble with patterns is that given any info. patterns can be identified, it is the nature of the human brain to try and do this (ley lines are the perfect example) Who knows though, perhaps they've succeeded
In my experience far too much weight is given to the chance of the "better" side (in football), it is invariably underpriced. Of course they do win and frequently too, just not as often as "the heart" suggests.
Cheers, P
what a question!
Looking at the sites' explanation of The Predictor, it appears that they're trying to extrapolate the probability of results, using patterns identified by the software. The trouble with patterns is that given any info. patterns can be identified, it is the nature of the human brain to try and do this (ley lines are the perfect example) Who knows though, perhaps they've succeeded
In my experience far too much weight is given to the chance of the "better" side (in football), it is invariably underpriced. Of course they do win and frequently too, just not as often as "the heart" suggests.
Cheers, P
Hi Prediction
I would imagine that, if you analyse enough historical data, you can come up with formulas that tell you 'based on recent form, there is an x% chance that this will happen'. As I understand it, this is how Victor works. However, I think Victor weakness is that it doesn't take into account things that are outside the form book, like the fact that a team's manager has just been sacked or a key player has just picked up an injury.
Regards
Jeff
I would imagine that, if you analyse enough historical data, you can come up with formulas that tell you 'based on recent form, there is an x% chance that this will happen'. As I understand it, this is how Victor works. However, I think Victor weakness is that it doesn't take into account things that are outside the form book, like the fact that a team's manager has just been sacked or a key player has just picked up an injury.
Regards
Jeff
Predicton wrote:Hi Jeff,
what a question!
Looking at the sites' explanation of The Predictor, it appears that they're trying to extrapolate the probability of results, using patterns identified by the software. The trouble with patterns is that given any info. patterns can be identified, it is the nature of the human brain to try and do this (ley lines are the perfect example) Who knows though, perhaps they've succeeded
In my experience far too much weight is given to the chance of the "better" side (in football), it is invariably underpriced. Of course they do win and frequently too, just not as often as "the heart" suggests.
Cheers, P
Difficult to know how accurate victor is unless the full workings are exposed. It does seem to be quite a bit out on a number of matches.
You may find this useful: -
http://mlselo.f2f2s.com/MLS_Elo.pdf
You may find this useful: -
http://mlselo.f2f2s.com/MLS_Elo.pdf
Thanks Peter
I found the following particularly interesting, as I wouldn't have thought the psychological advantage of playing at home would be so significant:
From 1996 through 2007 MLS teams played 2,073 regular season games. In those games the home team won 1,028 times, the away team won 565 times, and there were 480 ties. These correspond to percentages of 49.59%, 27.26% and 23.15% respectively.
Jeff
I found the following particularly interesting, as I wouldn't have thought the psychological advantage of playing at home would be so significant:
From 1996 through 2007 MLS teams played 2,073 regular season games. In those games the home team won 1,028 times, the away team won 565 times, and there were 480 ties. These correspond to percentages of 49.59%, 27.26% and 23.15% respectively.
Jeff
Bet Angel wrote:Difficult to know how accurate victor is unless the full workings are exposed. It does seem to be quite a bit out on a number of matches.
You may find this useful: -
http://mlselo.f2f2s.com/MLS_Elo.pdf
Hi Jeff,
That stat for football matches has been pretty stable for a long time and seems to apply to all divisions.I remember a system for dutching Home/Away/Draws which had the stats roughly at 50% Home 25% Away 25% draws & that was about 15 years ago.
Ben
That stat for football matches has been pretty stable for a long time and seems to apply to all divisions.I remember a system for dutching Home/Away/Draws which had the stats roughly at 50% Home 25% Away 25% draws & that was about 15 years ago.
Ben
Just checked English Premiership stats & almost spot on again this year.
League summary Played matches 200
Remaining matches 180
% played 52%
Home wins 51%
Draws 24%
Away wins 24%
Goals 588
Goals p. match 2.94
Goals p. match (Home) 1.76
Goals p. match (Away) 1.18
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Under 2.5 goals 45%
Ben
League summary Played matches 200
Remaining matches 180
% played 52%
Home wins 51%
Draws 24%
Away wins 24%
Goals 588
Goals p. match 2.94
Goals p. match (Home) 1.76
Goals p. match (Away) 1.18
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Under 2.5 goals 45%
Ben