That is very kind - should I post here or PM?
thanks
Today's Tennis
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Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
Kinda what I expected. However, with prestige being all that's on offer, and they could just pass on representing the team and go to a beach instead, I would think that players give 100% since they are choosing to spend their time on it. I get that Belarus against Kazaksthan in group 3 has no exchange interest, both because of the level of players and the risk of match fixing. But the top world group seems strange to me still.Dallas wrote: ↑Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:45 pmThey are both team events (Davis Cup mens, Fed cup womens) played out over a season without the prize money individual ATP/WTA tournaments have so as you say the players don't have there main focus on them and its more of a honors thing for the playerKafkaesque wrote: ↑Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:44 pmFor some of the more seasoned tennis traders: Any idea why the Davis Cup & Fed Cup attracts vastly less liquidity as opposed to ATP/WTA, despite the same players being in action? Do they just fly under the radar? Is there too much doubt about the players' motivation for these? Or something third?
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northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Three retirements in one day.
My Guardian automation is looking at me with a look that says "not my fault, mate".
My Guardian automation is looking at me with a look that says "not my fault, mate".
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northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
4 retirements in one day.
All women, 3 in Stuttgart, 1 in Budapest.
Does it happen THIS often in tennis?
All women, 3 in Stuttgart, 1 in Budapest.
Does it happen THIS often in tennis?
Not done any tennis today but that's certainly a lot of retirements considering how many matches were being playednorthbound wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:51 pm4 retirements in one day.
All women, 3 in Stuttgart, 1 in Budapest.
Does it happen THIS often in tennis?
Dan's sheets are very good, although I have found that much more research needs to be done around the figures - for instance whether the break backs are attained on particular surfaces / against particular opponents or when favourite or not.
They can however be a short cut to getting a feel for particular players and especially those you are not so familiar with. They also provide a reality check to the real break back percentages involved in swing trading tennis as opposed to the generic lay at end of set youtubers.
They can however be a short cut to getting a feel for particular players and especially those you are not so familiar with. They also provide a reality check to the real break back percentages involved in swing trading tennis as opposed to the generic lay at end of set youtubers.
Pliskova seems the perfect foil for the Ostapenko type of player i.e. almost clinically non-flashy.
Ostapenko reminds me of Cibulkova a few years ago and the trading charts are also becoming very familiar!
Today's matches ATP and WTA look less than inspiring however
Ostapenko reminds me of Cibulkova a few years ago and the trading charts are also becoming very familiar!
Today's matches ATP and WTA look less than inspiring however
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markyfletcher27
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:49 am
Hi,
Newish to trading and new to the forum but have some (possibly a lot) of questions re the above Ostapenko v Pliskova match and would certainly appreciate some feedback to some/all if possible. Apologies in advance for the length of this post also!
Firstly what kind of profiling would you do before a match and what would have lead you to this one in particular?
I subscribe to Dan Weston's sheets and looking at the stats for this match in a pretty simplistic way I was thinking ..... Pliskova - V good server, below average return, Ostapenko - Average server, very good return. The stats also led me to believe that the Stuttgart clay is quite a lot faster than most so my take was that I would be expecting less pressure on service games than average. This would take this match out of my comfort zone to trade as I prefer more return orientated games. I would qualify this a little as Ostapenko's stats also suggested that she would be more likley to be involved in pretty swingy matches, losing and recovering service breaks within sets more often than most.
Secondly what kind of positions would you have taken during the match and why?
Looking at the graphs above and the point by point data leads me to the following potential entry points in set 1 (very easy with hindsight I know and feel free to correct any errors).
1) Lay Ostapenko @ c1.40 after first break of serve in set 1. It looks like the price hit a low of about 1.28 in set 1 which presumably would have been at *0-3 and *15-30 in Pliskova's second service game. Based on SP I would have estimated that Ostapenko would have traded at about 1.20 at the end of set 1 if she had simply cruised to the set. So opening at 1.40 would have had 20 tick downside with maybe 40 tick bounce back to 1.80 if Pliskova broke to go back on serve. Given that Ostapenko held her first service game to love and the stats discussed above I think I would have found it difficult to take the position at 1.40 with any real confidence.
2) Lay Pliskova @ c1.65 (bit of a guess as difficult to see clearly on the graph) at 4-4 and up 2 break points at *15-40 on Ostapenko serve in set 1. Based on SP I'm guessing Pliskova would have hit maybe 1.40 if she ended up taking the first set 6-4 (so looking at a 25 tick loss) and would have bounced out to around 2.20 if Ostapenko ends up holding to go 5-4 up. With hindsight this may have been a slightly easier position for me to take as the upside would appear to be a lot more. However if Pliskova simply takes one of the next two points to break serve it basically kills the position. Additionally Ostapenko held to deuce in the previous service game and was broken the one before so it looks like there had certainly been a slight momentum shift to Pliskova and Ostapenko was struggling on serve.
I guess the questions I have are around whether or not you would have or did take any of these positions (or any different ones) and what the thought process would have been in terms of match characteristics and risk v reward.
Additionally and on a slightly separate note would you say that when it comes to in-play tennis trading it's very much quality over quantity. I'm pretty sure in the pre off racing markets for example the experts are able to trade almost every race in a given afternoon. My experience with tennis is that it's not necessarily like that and match selection is very important. Or are the more experienced tennis traders able to find good positions in most matches?
Just trying to get a feel for people's experiences and opinions.
Cheers
Newish to trading and new to the forum but have some (possibly a lot) of questions re the above Ostapenko v Pliskova match and would certainly appreciate some feedback to some/all if possible. Apologies in advance for the length of this post also!
Firstly what kind of profiling would you do before a match and what would have lead you to this one in particular?
I subscribe to Dan Weston's sheets and looking at the stats for this match in a pretty simplistic way I was thinking ..... Pliskova - V good server, below average return, Ostapenko - Average server, very good return. The stats also led me to believe that the Stuttgart clay is quite a lot faster than most so my take was that I would be expecting less pressure on service games than average. This would take this match out of my comfort zone to trade as I prefer more return orientated games. I would qualify this a little as Ostapenko's stats also suggested that she would be more likley to be involved in pretty swingy matches, losing and recovering service breaks within sets more often than most.
Secondly what kind of positions would you have taken during the match and why?
Looking at the graphs above and the point by point data leads me to the following potential entry points in set 1 (very easy with hindsight I know and feel free to correct any errors).
1) Lay Ostapenko @ c1.40 after first break of serve in set 1. It looks like the price hit a low of about 1.28 in set 1 which presumably would have been at *0-3 and *15-30 in Pliskova's second service game. Based on SP I would have estimated that Ostapenko would have traded at about 1.20 at the end of set 1 if she had simply cruised to the set. So opening at 1.40 would have had 20 tick downside with maybe 40 tick bounce back to 1.80 if Pliskova broke to go back on serve. Given that Ostapenko held her first service game to love and the stats discussed above I think I would have found it difficult to take the position at 1.40 with any real confidence.
2) Lay Pliskova @ c1.65 (bit of a guess as difficult to see clearly on the graph) at 4-4 and up 2 break points at *15-40 on Ostapenko serve in set 1. Based on SP I'm guessing Pliskova would have hit maybe 1.40 if she ended up taking the first set 6-4 (so looking at a 25 tick loss) and would have bounced out to around 2.20 if Ostapenko ends up holding to go 5-4 up. With hindsight this may have been a slightly easier position for me to take as the upside would appear to be a lot more. However if Pliskova simply takes one of the next two points to break serve it basically kills the position. Additionally Ostapenko held to deuce in the previous service game and was broken the one before so it looks like there had certainly been a slight momentum shift to Pliskova and Ostapenko was struggling on serve.
I guess the questions I have are around whether or not you would have or did take any of these positions (or any different ones) and what the thought process would have been in terms of match characteristics and risk v reward.
Additionally and on a slightly separate note would you say that when it comes to in-play tennis trading it's very much quality over quantity. I'm pretty sure in the pre off racing markets for example the experts are able to trade almost every race in a given afternoon. My experience with tennis is that it's not necessarily like that and match selection is very important. Or are the more experienced tennis traders able to find good positions in most matches?
Just trying to get a feel for people's experiences and opinions.
Cheers
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
Hi Marky
I've not done enough tennis trading to comment on your specific questions but if I see a ladies match where 'on paper' they are evenly matched but the prices suggest otherwise i.e. there is an odds on favourite, I would look to lay the shorter price player if they aren't dominating within the first few games.
Your best bet (no pun intended) would be to visit the Bet Angel YouTube channel and work your way through the Tennis playlist - there are some great videos in there and some strategies as well.
There is also Tennis Trader to use within BA Professional as well.
In terms of selection, some advice I was given is to only enter a market with at least £50,000 matched.
I would agree with you with regards to match selection - far better to profile one match properly and trade it well than try and trade all of them. That said, you could use automation to trade other matches - there are some videos on the BA channel about that.
I use Tennis Abstract and have found that to be useful in terms of the stats they provide.
Iambic
I've not done enough tennis trading to comment on your specific questions but if I see a ladies match where 'on paper' they are evenly matched but the prices suggest otherwise i.e. there is an odds on favourite, I would look to lay the shorter price player if they aren't dominating within the first few games.
Your best bet (no pun intended) would be to visit the Bet Angel YouTube channel and work your way through the Tennis playlist - there are some great videos in there and some strategies as well.
There is also Tennis Trader to use within BA Professional as well.
In terms of selection, some advice I was given is to only enter a market with at least £50,000 matched.
I would agree with you with regards to match selection - far better to profile one match properly and trade it well than try and trade all of them. That said, you could use automation to trade other matches - there are some videos on the BA channel about that.
I use Tennis Abstract and have found that to be useful in terms of the stats they provide.
Iambic