29th July Kitzbuhel Previews

[Redhead]

Today's action on the clay in Kitzbuhel starts in around an hour and the six 1st round matches in Austria take the focus for today's match previews.

Conditions are a little on the quick side of average based on last year's service stats and playing at altitude certainly favours some players over others...

One of these players is Robin Haase. The Dutchman thrives in these conditions and won the event in 2011 and 2012, and lost in the semi-finals after making the Gstaad final the week before (also held at altitude) in 2013.

The Dutchman - whose lack of mental strength was statisically highlighted in one of my latest articles added yesterday - takes on Italian clay-courter Paolo Lorenzi today and starts at around 1.42 today. This would appear short in normal circumstances but clearly the market has taken Haase's Kitzbuhel record into account and it's hard to argue with that.

Haase edges two projected holds around the ATP mean, being generally stronger on serve but a little weaker on return. On that basis it's tough to recommend laying either server in individual service games, but what I do like is laying Lorenzi a break up.

Lorenzi loses a break lead 47.8% in the last 12 months and that's very poor - well above the ATP top 100 mean of 30.9%. Haase's break deficit recovery percentage is a little below average but against such a poor opponent for protecting leads, I like this trade.

Before this match there are two clashes starting at 10am and opening up is the form player David Goffin against Kenny De Schepper.

Goffin has destroyed the Challenger tour in recent weeks winning three consecutive clay events all in straight sets (15 matches in a row) but only Blaz Rola and Jarkko Nieminen were ranked in the top 100 so how impressive this actually is, is questionable. Seven players were ranked outside the top 200 and 11 outside the top 150...

I would have preferred Goffin to have faced a much better clay courter first up as I feel he could be worth taking on this week, but instead we were rewarded with a big-serving hard courter with a very limited return game, which won't put much pressure on the Belgian's weak serve...

Goffin starts at 1.23 and that's about right for me due to the aforementioned deficiencies of De Schepper. I never thought I'd say this but with a high projected hold and high break point 'clutch' score today, Goffin looks worth backing when losing in individual service games, at points recommended in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook.

As mentioned previously, Jarkko Nieminen made the final of the Tampere Challenger last week in his home country and the Finn takes on Teymuraz Gabashvili at 10am today.

Nieminen might be a little tired and in any case, Gabashvili has the better clay stats at ATP level over the last 12 months, holding 2.2% more and breaking 3.1% more. Despite this, the Georgian starts as marginal underdog at 2.10 and I think this is a decent price with him edging two projected holds around average.

Having said that, the in-play stats favour Nieminen and recommend laying Gabashvili a break up - though whether that's viable is borderline based on the fact that Gabashvili represents pre-match value.

At around mid-day, Gstaad runner-up Juan Monaco takes on Andrey Golubev and the Argentine may also be a little on the tired side. However, with an atrocious hard court record, he may see this as one final tilt at getting some clay ranking points, and he's defending runner-up points here from last year.

Monaco starts at 1.44 and that looks a little short to me, but even with that, the in-play stats are so heavily in his favour, it's hard not to want to side with him in selected situations...

In a match where both players are much better on return than serve, Golubev's projected hold is low and the Rolling Projected Holds in today's Tier Two Trading Spreadsheet show his serve can be taken on in a variety of circumstances today.

Furthermore, the Kazakh loses a break lead 37.0% (slightly worse than average) but Monaco has a stellar break deficit recovery percentage - 46.6%. This takes the combined score on Golubev's serve to be 83.6 - well above the top 100 ATP mean of 64.0 and laying Golubev a break up, assuming Monaco isn't in bad condition, looks very viable today.

Also perhaps a little tired will be Pablo Andujar, who got the better of Monaco to win his third ATP title on Sunday. Today the Spaniard takes on home favourite Jurgen Melzer in another match where there could be breaks and swings.

Andujar begins at around 1.75 and that looks about right to me, and the best angle here looks to lay either player a break up, assuming Andujar doesn't look knackered...

Both players lose break leads 44% of the time and that's well above ATP average, so they are consistently vulnerable when in the lead in sets. Melzer has the better deficit recovery so laying Andujar a break up in particular looks a good strategy.

Rounding off the action is another fascinating match between Alexander Zverev and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. There's been a market move on Schwartzman and that looks justified, with the Argentine having much better Challenger stats on clay in the past 12 months, and also in 2014.

There's definitely a bandwagon rolling on Zverev and taking him on, with combined hold/break Challenger stats still under 100% (as detailed by one of the articles I added yesterday), in the near future looks like a good plan. He has huge potential but asking him to be consistent at 18 at ATP level is a huge ask...

Certainly his service stats are poor and this is also the case for Schwartzman, who as evidenced by today's stat of the day has a superb return game. He should really put pressure on the Zverev serve today and this should cause the young German all sorts of problems.

This leads to two very low projected holds and Schwartzman has the edge here, making him the value choice at around evens. With such a low projected hold, taking on the Zverev serve today appears mandatory...

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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