19th AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

We are into the second round matches tonight at Winston Salem and New Haven and again there's plenty of action this evening with 14 ATP matches and 4 WTA matches on the schedule, which starts at 5pm UK time.

Since starting the 'recommended trades' feature, I've been adding a review of those trades and here's the review of Monday's recommendations. Please note that these are not necessarily the trades that the stats recommend the most, as the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet highlights many other positions on a daily basis.

The following entry point triggers were hit:-
Goffin vs Melzer:-

Lay Goffin's serve in the first set, when the set is on serve, the second set when a set up and it's on serve, or the final set, when it's on serve (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not) - WINNING TRADE FOR LIABILITY CLEARED IN GAME 1 OF SET 1, AT 15-40, NO LOSING TRADES
Lay Goffin when a break up in the 1st set (Clear liability when the first break-back comes, full exit point either when the set is back on serve or the end of the set) - 1 LOSING TRADE
Lay Goffin when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) - 1 LOSING TRADE

For all these trades I do not mind taking liability out 0-30 or 15-40, and hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

Overall a loss after a very unusual match, which was one of huge positive variance for Goffin. Melzer actually created twice as many break points as Goffin in the match, yet failed to even break the Belgian.

It's incredibly rare for a player to have twice as many break points yet fail to break their opponent, on their way to a defeat, so there's no other option but to chalk this one down to variance.

Klizan vs Delbonis:-

Lay Delbonis when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Klizan serve. Can be performed in all service games unless Klizan was broken in the previous service game - 1 WINNING TRADE, 2 LOSING TRADES

Exit point at 30-30, 40-30, 40-40 or game to either player, depending on tolerance of risk - personally I like clearing liability at 30-30 or 40-40 and leaving all profit on Klizan until the end of the service game.

Overall, yesterday was disappointing for the recommended trades, but considering the scenarios (Delbonis had barely broken opponents on hard court until yesterday as well) we were pretty unlucky. Carla Suarez Navarro pulled out of her match with Irina Begu before it started, so no trades applied there.

In today's action, there are a number of trading options and I want to focus on several:-

The first is one of the opening clashes - Alexandr Nedovyesov against Edouard Roger-Vasselin.

The Frenchman starts as favourite at around 1.30 and I like this price on him, based on Nedovyesov's ATP stats. His Challenger stats are better - even when adjusted for ATP level - but the Kazakh has really struggled with the step up (even Robin Haase said he wasn't very good!) and has only broken 7.8% on hard court in the last 12 months, holding serve a poor 70.8% of the time.

ERV is pretty solid with 82.4% holds and 20.7% breaks and should easily be good enough to get the job done here, and if Nedovyesov gets in front I like opposing him. He's lost a break lead 42.9% in the last 12 months at ATP level and Roger-Vasselin has recovered a deficit 33.3%. This is easily good enough to warrant laying Nedovyesov a break up today.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Nedovyesov's serve in the second set when a set up and it's on serve, or the final set, when it's on serve, unless he holds serve to love or 15 in his previous service game (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)
Lay Nedovyesov when a break up in the 1st and 3rd sets (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) )
Lay Nedovyesov when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)

For all these trades I do not mind taking liability out 0-30 or 15-40, and hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

Pablo Andujar is the ATP player with the lowest projected hold today and the Spanish clay-courter has an atrocious hard court service hold of 62.5% in the last 12 months. Even an opponent as limited as Igor Sijsling should be able to take advantage today, and the Dutchman starts at 1.58, which looks a little on the generous side.

However, for a player with such a weak serve, Andujar is pretty solid when a break up and has only lost a break lead 30.9% in the last 12 months. Sijsling's break deficit recovery percentage is poor at 25.5%, so I don't like laying Andujar a break up here.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Andujar's serve when the set is on serve in the 1st set, the second set when the set is on serve if he wins the first set, and the third set when the set is on serve.

(Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not)

In the WTA, one match stands out for a low projected hold and deficit recovery, and it does involve a heavy underdog.

Magdalena Rybarikova has had a bad time of it in recent months and she takes on the world number two Simona Halep tonight.

Unsurprisingly, Halep is a heavy 1.11 favourite and this looks pretty correct. Rybarikova - due to Halep's superb return game which has broken opponents 50.3% in the last 12 months on hard court - has a low projected hold and the Slovak also is poor when a break up, losing this lead 52.3%. With Halep recovering a break deficit 58.7%, Rybarikova's combined score of 111.0 is significantly higher than the WTA top 100 mean, and laying her when a break up has huge positive expectation.

However, laying her a break up in the first set isn't really viable price-wise, as Halep will still be trading odds-on, so we need to look at the latter stages of the match for this trade to work.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Rybarikova when a set and break up in the 2nd set, or a break up in the 3rd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)

For this trade I do not mind taking liability or hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk.


Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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