21st AUGUST 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

It's quarter-finals day tonight at Winston Salem and New Haven and there's 8 ATP matches and 4 WTA matches on the schedule, which starts at 5pm UK time for the men and 6pm for the women.

Since starting the 'recommended trades' feature, I've been adding a review of those trades and here's the review of Wednesday's recommendations. Please note that these are not necessarily the trades that the stats recommend the most, as the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet highlights many other positions on a daily basis.

The following entry point triggers were hit:-
Janowicz vs Roger-Vasselin:-

Lay Janowicz when he is 0-30 or 15-40 up on the Roger-Vasselin serve. Can be performed in all service games unless Roger-Vasselin was broken in the previous service game. 1 WINNING TRADE (game 5 of 3rd set), 1 LOSING TRADE (game 2 of 2nd set) - profit overall.

Exit point at 30-30, 40-30, 40-40 or game to either player, depending on tolerance of risk - personally I like clearing liability at 30-30 or 40-40 and leaving all profit on Roger-Vasselin until the end of the service game.

Nieminen vs Goffin:-

Lay Goffin's serve in the first set when on serve, the second set when a set up and it's on serve, or the final set, when it's on serve, unless he holds serve to love in his previous service game (Exit point at the end of the service game, for profit if the break occurs, or for a loss if it does not) - 1 WINNING TRADE, 4 LOSING TRADES in set 2, 2 LOSING TRADES in set 3
Lay Goffin when a break up in the 1st and 3rd sets (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) ) - 2 LOSING TRADES

For all these trades I recommend taking liability out at 0-30 or 15-40, and hedging at 0-40.

We traded this match live in the Chat Room and all members managed positive positions overall, despite the apparent failure of the above trades. Firstly, the set 1 trade was recovered with the 'Vesnina Trade' from my handbook which saw Nieminen recover one of the two breaks at a very low average lay price. Overall, members favoured laying Goffin again after the first set and this was a huge winner, from 1.16 to 1.7x if I recall correctly. The service lays generated slight profit in set 2.

Set 3 wasn't good though, although quite a lot of the Chat Room had closed their book by this point. Personally I feel that 'profit taking' isn't a +EV concept, although I understand that it does improve mental sanity somewhat...

Lu vs Granollers:-

We were right in thinking Granollers was vulnerable but he didn't get into the match at all, and Lu trained to 1.01. No triggers met there.


Stats look more interesting in the ATP side of things today, so I'll focus on those matches for today's previews.

Getting us started is Andreas Seppi and after a perhaps fortunate straight-sets win over Nicolas Mahut yesterday (Mahut had two set points in the second set) the Italian takes on Yen-Hsun Lu, who had a facile win over Marcel Granollers.

It's the man from Chinese Taipei who starts as favourite at around 1.75 and that's very generous indeed from my perspective - he has much better 12 month hard court stats, holding 7.1% more and breaking 2.7% more as well - and there's no doubt he is in the better form.

Furthermore, in-play stats favour Lu, as he's more solid when a break up (28.6% lead loss to 35.5%) and better when a break down (44.0% recovery to 41.8%). This makes Seppi's combined score 79.5 and this is easily enough to warrant laying him when a break up, combined with his low projected hold for this clash.

Overall, all the stats favour Lu and I feel opposing Seppi is the way forward here...

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Seppi when a break up in the 1st and 3rd sets (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss) )
Lay Seppi when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)

The TennisRatings Chat Room had great success last night with over 35 in it, and it's been busy already this morning. I was asked to do a preview of Jerzy Janowicz versus David Goffin, and that takes the basis of my second preview.

Goffin had arguably the toughest test of his winning streak last night against Jarkko Nieminen, getting the better of the Finn in three one-break sets whilst Janowicz came from a set down to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin in a very tight clash, so the Pole - often so inconsistent - clearly wants to be here this week.

Goffin is trading around 1.60 currently and that looks a little too short, although that's not exactly a shock seeing as the world and their wife is on his bandwagon right now - I priced him around the 1.75 mark today.

From a trading perspective there's little to recommend, with projected holds around ATP mean and combined break-back scores below the 71 threshold. Laying Goffin when a set up can't be viable unless the in-play stats warrant it, as he's seen out so many matches this year without any fuss, although obviously many were against low-level opponents.

Janowicz has lost 4 out of 7 second sets when he's won the first priced 2.00-2.99 at ATP level, and Goffin has won just 2/11 when a set down with an SP of 1.50-1.99, so laying Janowicz a set up can't be considered right now either.

The final match of the night is for the night owls, with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez taking on Sam Querrey at midnight UK time.

Garcia-Lopez toughed out an epic 3 setter against Donald Young - another match which had great success for the Chat Room - and he may be tired tonight, although obviously with the last match on court, he does have maximum recovery time.

I can only think this - and a tight 3-0 head to head record - is the reason why Querrey is so short because 1.46 isn't accurate at all based on the stats. Garcia-Lopez took a set twice in those matches and adores a 3-setter, so laying Querrey a set up possibly appeals here.

Garcia-Lopez has won the 2nd set 5/10 times having lost the 1st set in the last 12 months, and ultimately the match 4 times out of those occasions. That's very strong indeed. Querrey went through a rough patch just after the turn of the year, throwing away many winning positions, but has been more solid lately and has won in straight sets in 12/18 since January 2014 when priced 1.25-2.00 having won the first set.

Querrey - for a big server - is very poor when a break up, losing a break lead 30.4% of the time. With GGL recovering a break deficit 42.3% of the time, the combined score of 72.7 on Querrey means he can also be laid a break up here.

I like both of those trades, for relatively small stakes. Ideally gauging Garcia-Lopez's level would be worthwhile, but in advance of the match, I can't take that into account.

Recommended Trades:-

Lay Querrey when a break up in the 1st and 3rd sets (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Querrey when he wins the first set.
Lay Querrey when a set and break up in the 2nd set. (Exit point either when the break-back comes, for profit, or the end of the set, for a loss)

(For all these trades I do not mind taking liability out 0-30 or 15-40, and hedging at 0-40 depending on your tolerance of risk)

Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

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