Trading Golf : US PGA Championship 2017

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northbound
Posts: 389
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:01 pm

It's the last major of the year and here are some pointers:

- Played at the Quail Hollow golf course
- This course hosted Wells Fargo Championship every year until 2016
- Since last year's Wells Fargo Championship, the course has been toughened up
- Par 5s are OK
- Par 4s are long and challenging
- Tough start: the course designer says that it's unlikely to see a player scoring many birdies on the first six holes
- Tough finish: the final three holes (16, 17, 18) are nicknamed "The Green Mile" and are quite challenging
- Rory McIlroy won twice here
Last edited by northbound on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:03 am, edited 2 times in total.

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northbound
Posts: 389
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:03 pm

The above should give you some ideas on how to formulate a trading strategy for this tournament.

Meanwhile, I've done some digging on historic Betfair data of the last two tournaments held at this course and these are my personal DOB suggestions for this tournament:

Anirban Lahiri (current odds 600.00)
Patrick Reed (160.00)
Kevin Chappell (75.00)
Phil Mickelson (80.00)

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Euler
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:15 am

I'm curious why McIlroy is favourite?

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northbound
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Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:39 am

Because he's won twice on this golf course already.

Here's Rory's recent record at the Wells Fargo Championship, which is always played on this golf course:

2012 - 2nd
2013 - 10th
2014 - 8th
2015 - 1st
2016 - 4th

Also, with many Par 4 holes being longer than 500yd, this course suits powerful drivers like him.

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Euler
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:51 am

Betdaq are doing 0% commission on the US PGA: -

https://twitter.com/BETDAQ/status/895560816203898881

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Euler
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm

2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png
On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
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gazuty
Posts: 1022
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:14 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm
2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png

On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
C + C music factory. Things that make you go hmmmm

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northbound
Posts: 389
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:16 pm

Not surprised about Casey, as he had several Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour this year.

Perhaps this trader goes in big on in-form players at decent odds, with a view to lay them lower in-play.

Last time Paul Casey played on this golf course, at Wells Fargo 2016, he went off at 55.00 on Betfair, and traded as low as 15.00 in-play.

steven1976
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:39 pm

What time does coverage in UK for PGA on sky start?

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Euler
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Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Massive drift on Spieth

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