Trading Golf : US Masters 2018

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northbound
Posts: 736
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:30 pm

First major tournament of the season and here's a simple DOBBING strategy which, far from being bombproof, could provide an interest for people who don't have the time to actively trade the tournament.

The Strategy

- Before the tournament, back all players that have odds between 20.00 and 500.00 (there are around 50 of them at the time of writing).

- Place a lay bet for each of these players at half the back odds and double the stake. For example, back Bubba Watson at 20.00 for £1, lay him at 10.00 for £2. In fact, I prefer laying him at slightly lower (9.40 for £2.13) to beat the 5% commission and effectively double up if my lay gets matched.

- After placing the lay bets, remember to instruct Bet Angel / Betfair to "Keep All", so your lays will stay in the market during the whole tournament

Past Results

2016: +10pt profit (30 dobbed, 20 didn't)
2017: +7pt profit (35 dobbed, 28 didn't)

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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:35 pm

northbound wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:30 pm
First major tournament of the season and here's a simple DOBBING strategy which, far from being bombproof, could provide an interest for people who don't have the time to actively trade the tournament.

The Strategy

- Before the tournament, back all players that have odds between 20.00 and 500.00 (there are around 50 of them at the time of writing)

- Place a lay bet for each of those players at half the back odds and double the stake. For example, back Bubba Watson at 20.00 for £1, lay him at 10.00 for £2. In fact, I prefer laying him at slightly lower (9.40 for £2.13) to beat the 5% commission and effectively double up if my lay gets matched.

- After placing the lay bets, remember to instruct Bet Angel / Betfair to "Keep All", so your lays will stay in the market during the whole tournament

Past Results

2016: +10pt profit (30 dobbed, 20 didn't)
2017: +7pt profit (35 dobbed, 28 didn't)
Hi,

Out of curiosity, do you know how many odds >= 100.00 dobbed ?

Thanks,

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jimibt
Posts: 2584
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:41 pm

nice little tip, tho if the market efficiency is catching up, this year could be +4pts... still worth a crack tho..

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northbound
Posts: 736
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:44 pm

jimibt wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:41 pm
nice little tip, tho if the market efficiency is catching up, this year could be +4pts... still worth a crack tho..
Or perhaps it will be -17pts, full reversion :D

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northbound
Posts: 736
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:45 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:35 pm
Out of curiosity, do you know how many odds >= 100.00 dobbed ?
Here's the full list of players for the past two US Masters, with their starting odds (basically the first odds they were matched at inplay) and inplay minimum odds.


2016

Code: Select all

name                            bf_sp       bf_ipmin    dobbed    
------------------------------  ----------  ----------  ----------
Jason Day                       8.0         3.1         Yes       
Rory McIlroy                    10.0        2.94        Yes       
Jordan Spieth                   13.0        1.09        Yes       
Bubba Watson                    15.0        9.4         No        
Adam Scott                      15.5        14.5        No        
Rickie Fowler                   19.0        12.5        No        
Dustin Johnson                  22.0        4.8         Yes       
Phil Mickelson                  23.0        16.0        No        
Justin Rose                     25.0        6.6         Yes       
Henrik Stenson                  27.0        16.0        No        
Louis Oosthuizen                40.0        22.0        No        
Hideki Matsuyama                40.0        4.5         Yes       
Patrick Reed                    48.0        42.0        No        
Charl Schwartzel                55.0        48.0        No        
Brandt Snedeker                 70.0        9.4         Yes       
Zach Johnson                    75.0        23.0        Yes       
Sergio Garcia                   80.0        14.0        Yes       
Branden Grace                   85.0        80.0        No        
Jimmy Walker                    90.0        32.0        Yes       
Paul Casey                      90.0        17.0        Yes       
Marc Leishman                   90.0        85.0        No        
Danny Willett                   95.0        1.01        Yes       
Brooks Koepka                   95.0        40.0        Yes       
Matt Kuchar                     100.0       44.0        Yes       
Rafael Cabrera Bello            130.0       90.0        No        
Bill Haas                       150.0       140.0       No        
Ryan Moore                      160.0       130.0       No        
Charley Hoffman                 160.0       100.0       No        
Martin Kaymer                   180.0       170.0       No        
Justin Thomas                   200.0       160.0       No        
Jason Dufner                    210.0       170.0       No        
Shane Lowry                     210.0       18.0        Yes       
Chris Kirk                      220.0       200.0       No        
Andy Sullivan                   220.0       160.0       No        
Ian Poulter                     230.0       44.0        Yes       
J.B. Holmes                     230.0       55.0        Yes       
Kevin Na                        240.0       110.0       Yes       
Kevin Kisner                    240.0       150.0       No        
Bernd Wiesberger                270.0       80.0        Yes       
Angel Cabrera                   300.0       110.0       Yes       
Bryson DeChambeau               310.0       24.0        Yes       
Lee Westwood                    320.0       5.0         Yes       
Daniel Berger                   320.0       70.0        Yes       
Byeong Hun An                   320.0       230.0       No        
Billy Horschel                  330.0       80.0        Yes       
Harris English                  330.0       140.0       Yes       
Jamie Donaldson                 350.0       110.0       Yes       
Keegan Bradley                  370.0       75.0        Yes       
Hunter Mahan                    370.0       120.0       Yes       
Smylie Kaufman                  410.0       7.6         Yes       
Graeme McDowell                 420.0       250.0       No        
Danny Lee                       430.0       30.0        Yes       
Matthew Fitzpatrick             440.0       85.0        Yes       
Anirban Lahiri                  450.0       310.0       No        
David Lingmerth                 450.0       220.0       Yes       
Scott Piercy                    480.0       34.0        Yes       
Webb Simpson                    510.0       280.0       No        
Victor Dubuisson                520.0       110.0       Yes       
Jim Herman                      530.0       100.0       Yes       
Russel Knox                     540.0       450.0       No        
Ernie Els                       550.0       500.0       No        
Emiliano Grillo                 550.0       130.0       Yes       
Kiradech Aphibarnrat            560.0       70.0        Yes       
Kevin Streelman                 600.0       210.0       Yes       
Chris Wood                      650.0       120.0       Yes       
Troy Merritt                    670.0       220.0       Yes       
Cameron Smith                   730.0       670.0       No        
Robert Streb                    800.0       700.0       No        
Thongchai Jaidee                820.0       90.0        Yes       
Soren Kjeldsen                  850.0       17.5        Yes       
Bernhard Langer                 870.0       25.0        Yes       
Vijay Singh                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Larry Mize                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Trevor Immelman                 1000.0      1000.0      No        
Darren Clarke                   1000.0      1000.0      No        
Mike Weir                       1000.0      1000.0      No        
Davis Love III                  1000.0      160.0       Yes       
Vaughn Taylor                   1000.0      1000.0      No        
Ian Woosnam                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Mark OMeara                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Tom Watson                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Sandy Lyle                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Fabian Gomez                    1000.0      1000.0      No        
Steven Bowditch                 1000.0      1000.0      No        
Romain Langasque                1000.0      1000.0      No        
Jin Cheng                       1000.0      1000.0      No        
Derek Bard                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Sammy Schmitz                   1000.0      1000.0      No        
Paul Chaplet                    1000.0      1000.0      No

2017

Code: Select all

name                            bf_sp       bf_ipmin    dobbed    
------------------------------  ----------  ----------  ----------
Rory McIlroy                    8.8         4.5         No        
Jordan Spieth                   8.8         3.0         Yes       
Jason Day                       20.0        11.5        No        
Rickie Fowler                   22.0        3.9         Yes       
Hideki Matsuyama                25.0        19.5        No        
Justin Rose                     28.0        1.17        Yes       
Henrik Stenson                  34.0        30.0        No        
Phil Mickelson                  34.0        8.0         Yes       
Jon Rahm                        34.0        6.8         Yes       
Adam Scott                      44.0        10.5        Yes       
Sergio Garcia                   46.0        1.01        Yes       
Paul Casey                      48.0        13.5        Yes       
Justin Thomas                   48.0        19.0        Yes       
Marc Leishman                   55.0        20.0        Yes       
Louis Oosthuizen                60.0        38.0        No        
Bubba Watson                    65.0        32.0        Yes       
Brandt Snedeker                 70.0        42.0        No        
Russell Henley                  85.0        28.0        Yes       
Daniel Berger                   85.0        65.0        No        
Tyrrell Hatton                  90.0        75.0        No        
Bill Haas                       95.0        34.0        Yes       
Adam Hadwin                     95.0        85.0        No        
Brooks Koepka                   100.0       46.0        Yes       
Matthew Fitzpatrick             110.0       16.0        Yes       
Charl Schwartzel                120.0       15.0        Yes       
J B Holmes                      120.0       46.0        Yes       
Shane Lowry                     120.0       20.0        Yes       
Patrick Reed                    120.0       80.0        No        
Lee Westwood                    120.0       21.0        Yes       
Thomas Pieters                  120.0       9.0         Yes       
Jimmy Walker                    130.0       80.0        No        
Gary Woodland                   130.0       90.0        No        
Kevin Kisner                    130.0       85.0        No        
Tommy Fleetwood                 140.0       85.0        No        
Ryan Moore                      150.0       12.0        Yes       
Matt Kuchar                     150.0       50.0        Yes       
Charley Hoffman                 160.0       4.9         Yes       
Soren Kjeldsen                  160.0       34.0        Yes       
Danny Willett                   160.0       48.0        Yes       
Branden Grace                   170.0       110.0       No        
Alex Noren                      170.0       50.0        Yes       
Emiliano Grillo                 170.0       150.0       No        
Martin Kaymer                   180.0       60.0        Yes       
Brendan Steele                  180.0       120.0       No        
Zach Johnson                    190.0       120.0       No        
Bernd Wiesberger                190.0       150.0       No        
Jason Dufner                    200.0       23.0        Yes       
Ross Fisher                     200.0       44.0        Yes       
Francesco Molinari              210.0       180.0       No        
Rafael Cabrera Bello            210.0       130.0       No        
Jhonattan Vegas                 210.0       160.0       No        
Angel Cabrera                   250.0       120.0       Yes       
Kevin Chappell                  260.0       60.0        Yes       
Pat Perez                       270.0       160.0       No        
Jim Furyk                       280.0       230.0       No        
Steve Stricker                  280.0       280.0       No        
Hudson Swafford                 300.0       290.0       No        
Kevin Na                        310.0       260.0       No        
Scott Piercy                    310.0       85.0        Yes       
Russell Knox                    320.0       90.0        Yes       
Chris Wood                      330.0       100.0       Yes       
Andy Sullivan                   410.0       50.0        Yes       
Byeong Hun An                   490.0       140.0       Yes       
Webb Simpson                    510.0       140.0       Yes       
William McGirt                  520.0       16.0        Yes       
Jeunghun Wang                   520.0       260.0       No        
Fred Couples                    540.0       42.0        Yes       
Sean O'Hair                     580.0       260.0       Yes       
James Hahn                      630.0       160.0       Yes       
Curtis Luck                     680.0       550.0       No        
Hideto Tanihara                 730.0       220.0       Yes       
Bernhard Langer                 800.0       200.0       Yes       
Vijay Singh                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Ernie Els                       1000.0      190.0       Yes       
Larry Mize                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Trevor Immelman                 1000.0      1000.0      No        
Jose Maria Olazabal             1000.0      1000.0      No        
Rod Pampling                    1000.0      1000.0      No        
Ian Woosnam                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Mark OMeara                     1000.0      1000.0      No        
Sandy Lyle                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Billy Hurley III                1000.0      630.0       No        
Daniel Summerhays               1000.0      520.0       No        
Yuta Ikeda                      1000.0      500.0       No        
Mackenzie Hughes                1000.0      610.0       No        
Si Woo Kim                      1000.0      600.0       No        
Brad Dalke                      1000.0      1000.0      No        
Scott Gregory                   1000.0      1000.0      No        
Roberto Castro                  1000.0      530.0       No        
Brian Stuard                    1000.0      250.0       Yes       
Toto Gana                       1000.0      1000.0      No        
Stewart Hagestad                1000.0      600.0       No        
Mike Weir                       1000.0      1000.0      No

User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:57 pm

This is very interesting, many thanks for posting.

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Euler
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Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:58 am

Whoops, what an idiot. How to blow your Masters debut: -

https://twitter.com/TreyW_SEC/status/981628272562884608

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LeTiss
Posts: 4735
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:35 am

He's still playing though Peter, I like that.

It reminds me of Monthy Pyhton & The Holy Grail "It's just a flesh wound"

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LeTiss
Posts: 4735
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:50 am

Just seen a cracking spike (fat finger) on Justin Thomas on Top 5 market

Trading at 3.85/3.90 he suddenly got matched all the way to 12.5
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Euler
Posts: 19755
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Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:54 am

Not clear cut if he will start: -

https://twitter.com/tonyfinaugolf/statu ... 9927499779

He is optimistic but having done the same thing in my youth it hurts like bugger the next day. I would play if I were him, how many chances are you going to get? But you have to consider long-term issues as well I guess. But at least give it a few holes and see how you get on, Golf isn't like a 100m sprint in reality.

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