After acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.
From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.
However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.
Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.
I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.
So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.
Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.
Welcome ideas.
1000 Winner Conquest
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
If anyone has any pre race 1000 winner stats would be very appreciative.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Over the years I backed my fair share of 100/1+ winners (Betfair odds, pre-play). I did it by betting on plenty of unraced 2yo in Maiden horse races.
Be prepared to stomach plenty of losers before hitting a winner.
My bigger priced winners were probably Sweetchildomine (200/1, 2009) and another one at 330/1 in 2012.
Funny story about Sweetchildomine: I eyed it on Betfair one hour before the start but was unsure whether to throw money at it. Turned on the TV, the video for that Guns N Roses song was playing on, so decided to back the horse with about £7. It didn’t start well so I laughed at myself for being such a mug, but then picked up nicely in the last two furlongs to bring home the dough.
Another two related stories from my gambling days.
In January 2011 I sat really depressed in my office, turned on Betfair and saw Dorcas Lane at around 100/1. Thought about betting £100, but then told myself not to be stupid. I didn’t bet. The horse won. I probably went home even more depressed that night.
But the biggest miss of all was Navajo Chief in June 2009. I made around £1,000 betting the previous two days. When I came home from work that night, I saw Navajo Chief at around 100/1 and contemplated putting £200 on it. Didn’t have the balls. I only bet £33. The horse won.
If you like football, you can often get big priced winners by backing the draw at half time when the score is 3-0 in a match that should have been much tighter. Two weekends ago Dortmund led 4-0 and the draw was 500/1. It ended 4-4!
Be prepared to stomach plenty of losers before hitting a winner.
My bigger priced winners were probably Sweetchildomine (200/1, 2009) and another one at 330/1 in 2012.
Funny story about Sweetchildomine: I eyed it on Betfair one hour before the start but was unsure whether to throw money at it. Turned on the TV, the video for that Guns N Roses song was playing on, so decided to back the horse with about £7. It didn’t start well so I laughed at myself for being such a mug, but then picked up nicely in the last two furlongs to bring home the dough.
Another two related stories from my gambling days.
In January 2011 I sat really depressed in my office, turned on Betfair and saw Dorcas Lane at around 100/1. Thought about betting £100, but then told myself not to be stupid. I didn’t bet. The horse won. I probably went home even more depressed that night.
But the biggest miss of all was Navajo Chief in June 2009. I made around £1,000 betting the previous two days. When I came home from work that night, I saw Navajo Chief at around 100/1 and contemplated putting £200 on it. Didn’t have the balls. I only bet £33. The horse won.
If you like football, you can often get big priced winners by backing the draw at half time when the score is 3-0 in a match that should have been much tighter. Two weekends ago Dortmund led 4-0 and the draw was 500/1. It ended 4-4!
- marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
I don't know your bankroll of course, but even 33 pounds sounds like a lot for such a bet. Let's do the math, and I'll give you very favorable conditions. Let's say you constantly bet on horses with odds 100, but they actually have odds 80 of winning (I'm sure you'll agree this a very healthy edge)
The optimum fraction of your bankroll to bet is given by the Kelly criterion and it is equal to (bp-(1-p))/b where b is the odds in the market and p is the probability of winning the bet. We have a 99 to 1 bet with a 79 to 1 chance of winning so b = 99 and p = 1/79. Plugging in those numbers gives 0.00269, so you bet slightly less than 0.3% of your bank to optimally grow your money. You bet 33, meaning that your bankroll is 12290.
Hmm, well okay I guess that's still very much in the realm of possibilities. But only with this nice edge. And take into account that overestimating your edge is worse than underestimating it; a reason most gamblers use half-kelly or quarter-kelly. If your bankroll is actually 12290 then with these conditions betting 200 will lead to sure ruin.
(northbound: again, I have no idea what of bankroll you have and maybe your edge is even greater that what I offered. Since you have been doing this for many years you're probably fine. I just thought it would be nice to throw this calculation in. Hopefully I've scared a couple of people into lowering their stakes)
The optimum fraction of your bankroll to bet is given by the Kelly criterion and it is equal to (bp-(1-p))/b where b is the odds in the market and p is the probability of winning the bet. We have a 99 to 1 bet with a 79 to 1 chance of winning so b = 99 and p = 1/79. Plugging in those numbers gives 0.00269, so you bet slightly less than 0.3% of your bank to optimally grow your money. You bet 33, meaning that your bankroll is 12290.
Hmm, well okay I guess that's still very much in the realm of possibilities. But only with this nice edge. And take into account that overestimating your edge is worse than underestimating it; a reason most gamblers use half-kelly or quarter-kelly. If your bankroll is actually 12290 then with these conditions betting 200 will lead to sure ruin.
(northbound: again, I have no idea what of bankroll you have and maybe your edge is even greater that what I offered. Since you have been doing this for many years you're probably fine. I just thought it would be nice to throw this calculation in. Hopefully I've scared a couple of people into lowering their stakes)
-
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Here's the 1000 BSP winners off my databaseSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:15 pmIf anyone has any pre race 1000 winner stats would be very appreciative.
Crianza GB / Redc 19th Jun 19-06-2010 17:20
Maoi Chinn Tire GB / Weth 29th Oct 29-10-2010 15:55
Capture The Drama IRE / GowP 19th Mar 19-03-2016 14:45
Here's the CSV data of winners that traded 1000 pre off and their BSP so you can see if it's a blip as obviously some of the data does appear flawed with plenty of sub 20 BSP horses trading at max odds before the off. Plenty of times you'll find people trying to skew the Betfair graphs by self matching at large odds when the market opens. I can't remember off hand the minimum amounts Betfair show within this data set but £10 springs to mind. Betfair do also provide much more detail matched bet data with the first recorded match nd last recorded match but I never scraped that. Maybe someone will have that for the dates you need or where the data is stored as it appears Betfair have ceased with the data.betfair.com site now they're charging for the info at https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home. historicdata only seems to go back to 2015 but the free data may be of use for recent winners.
"EVENT_ID","MENU_HINT","EVENT_NAME","EVENT_DT","SELECTION_ID","SELECTION_NAME","WIN_LOSE","BSP","PPWAP","MORNINGWAP","PPMAX","PPMIN","IPMAX","IPMIN","MORNINGTRADEDVOL","PPTRADEDVOL","IPTRADEDVOL","CH_num"
"124802625","GB / Newb 13th May","1m2f Mdn Stks","13-05-2016 16:15","941390","Ulysses","1","1.38","1.54","1.96","1000.00","1.37","1.47","1.01","22331.02","536629.50","171135.62","124802625941390"
"101859242","IRE / Navan 20th Oct","1m5f Hcap","20-10-2010 17:25","21312","Table Mountain","1","2.90","2.60","2.42","1000.00","2.31","7.00","1.01","3599.62","185196.80","144807.88","10185924221312"
"124808497","GB / Newb 14th May","1m2f Hcap","14-05-2016 16:30","10509481","Imperial Aviator","1","6.28","5.03","4.84","1000.00","4.20","11.00","1.01","97174.00","402940.46","155664.22","12480849710509480"
"121818226","GB / Wolv 14th Nov","1m1f Hcap","14-11-2015 21:15","7334240","Dove Mountain","1","8.00","8.24","10.91","1000.00","7.20","11.50","1.01","62.06","42758.04","28988.78","1218182267334240"
"127217104","IRE / Fairy 27th Sep","7f Mdn","27-09-2016 16:30","10427396","Truffles","1","9.93","11.76","13.22","1000.00","9.20","9.00","1.01","66.52","23786.44","76073.20","12721710410427396"
"135651047","IRE / Punch 18th Oct","2m NHF Stks","18-10-2017 17:20","15557363","Cordovan Brown","1","12.50","12.07","13.11","1000.00","7.00","16.50","1.01","134.12","20393.12","57714.90","13565104715557364"
"124803404","GB / Ham 13th May","6f Hcap","13-05-2016 19:55","9438226","Dodgy Bob","1","13.71","12.42","21.74","1000.00","10.50","16.50","1.01","622.10","36228.32","56463.16","1248034049438226"
"124808482","GB / Newb 14th May","1m4f Grp3","14-05-2016 14:45","8455670","Astronereus","1","16.63","15.74","14.98","1000.00","13.50","55.00","1.01","7925.32","53407.56","66591.38","1248084828455670"
"21126362","IRE / Tipp 7th Aug ","7f Hcap ","07-08-2008 19:35","2620559","Springfort ","1","17.99","9.25","9.71","1000.00","8.60","30.00","1.01","6.34","6258.20","47556.72","211263622620559"
"127629887","GB / MrktR 15th Oct","2m Mdn Hrd","15-10-2016 13:35","3600412","Southport","1","19.78","22.15","10.29","1000.00","10.50","22.00","1.01","203.70","6764.16","75579.62","1276298873600412"
"124808380","GB / Aint 13th May","2m1f Stks NHF","13-05-2016 20:40","11167808","Gustave Mahler","1","50.00","41.81","115.74","1000.00","32.00","55.00","1.01","72.66","4215.06","46825.44","12480838011167808"
"101517287","GB / Hayd 2nd Jul","1m2f Hcap","02-07-2010 20:50","2098357","Snow Dancer","1","70.00","60.90","19.54","1000.00","19.50","100.00","1.01","72.48","5551.48","38972.46","1015172872098357"
"125785612","IRE / Gal 26th Jul","2m2f Beg Chs","26-07-2016 17:45","8673050","Talk The Lingo","1","383.27","412.09","1.00","1000.00","220.00","450.00","1.31","0.00","435.88","29079.00","1257856128673050"
"128711153","IRE / Navan 10th Dec","2m Mdn Hrd","10-12-2016 12:00","12218705","Any Second Now","1","724.53","674.97","1.00","1000.00","210.00","1000.00","1.01","0.00","128.44","39245.86","12871115312218704"
"104929708","GB / Ludl 22nd Feb","2m Hcap Hrd","22-02-2012 15:40","2415561","Tayarat","1","777.80","465.95","116.48","1000.00","150.00","840.00","1.01","10.90","845.98","101140.38","1049297082415561"
"101296522","GB / FfosL 6th Apr","6f Mdn Stks","06-04-2010 14:55","4283712","Fayre Bella","1","814.82","857.02","102.41","1000.00","70.00","910.00","1.01","53.22","1081.66","65776.34","1012965224283712"
"131123923","GB / Newb 22nd Apr","1m Mdn Stks","22-04-2017 16:45","12730660","Duke of Bronte","1","880.09","985.13","1000.00","1000.00","700.00","1000.00","1.01","89.00","1379.18","75445.70","13112392312730660"
"101490505","GB / Redc 19th Jun","6f Mdn Stks","19-06-2010 17:20","4741942","Crianza","1","1000.00","670.12","274.99","1000.00","250.00","1000.00","1.01","8.00","718.26","106870.00","1014905054741942"
"123703552","IRE / GowP 19th Mar","2m4f Mdn Hrd","19-03-2016 14:45","8914096","Capture The Drama","1","1000.00","971.88","219.96","1000.00","220.00","1000.00","1.01","4.00","120.44","94904.12","1237035528914096"
"101893696","GB / Weth 29th Oct","2m Juv Hrd","29-10-2010 15:55","3786827","Maoi Chinn Tire","1","1000.00","770.75","256.99","1000.00","190.00","1000.00","1.01","23.24","663.08","245569.66","1018936963786827"
"21174329","GB / Salis 29th Aug ","6f Mdn Stks ","29-08-2008 16:35","3136575","Bermondsey Bob ","1","1001.00","977.74","1.00","1000.00","340.00","1000.00","1.15","0.00","341.52","147815.80","211743293136575"
As for simple stats
3 1000 BSP winners out of 12,469 runners setting off at 1000
21,029 runners traded at 1000 pre off 21 won (the dataset above)
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
It was indeed, but those were just tales from my gambling days. I’m not betting like that anymore because, you’re right, long term it doesn’t work.marksmeets302 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:04 amI don't know your bankroll of course, but even 33 pounds sounds like a lot for such a bet...
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Further to spreadbetting's post, here are 2017 winners with BSP of 100 or above.
FLAT
JUMPS
FLAT
Code: Select all
datetime cou racecourse description name bf_sp
------------------ --- --------------- --------------- ----------------- --------
2017-01-18 16:50 GB Kempton 1m Hcap Magic Mirror 151.75
2017-03-09 15:20 GB Southwell 7f Hcap Hammer Gun 234.71
2017-04-11 17:10 GB Pontefract 1m Hcap Rockwood 125.17
2017-04-20 14:50 GB Ripon 5f Nov Stks Capla Dancer 131.85
2017-04-22 16:45 GB Newbury 1m Mdn Stks Duke of Bronte 880.09
2017-05-13 14:40 GB Nottingham 5f Hcap Mighty Zip 114.07
2017-06-03 18:10 GB Doncaster 2m PA Hcap Stks Saleemah 205.31
2017-06-04 15:40 IRE Listowel 1m Mdn Elusive Duchess 163.96
2017-06-11 16:05 GB Nottingham 1m Mdn Stks Best of My Love 104.89
2017-06-15 13:30 GB Newbury 6f Nov Stks Bullington Bandit 195.42
2017-06-22 21:00 IRE Leopardstown 1m7f Hcap Eight And Bob 130.0
2017-07-01 18:00 IRE Curragh 2m Hcap Three Kingdoms 220.18
2017-07-03 17:00 GB Pontefract 1m2f Hcap Exclusive Waters 110.0
2017-07-06 14:30 GB Haydock 6f Nov Stks Staxton 170.0
2017-07-10 15:15 GB Ayr 1m5f Hcap Glenbank King 108.92
2017-07-18 19:10 GB Thirsk 1m4f Hcap Hayward Field 120.6
2017-07-29 15:00 GB Ascot 7f Hcap Stks Stamp Hill 137.97
2017-08-01 15:00 GB Goodwood 7f Grp2 Breton Rock 163.8
2017-08-01 16:10 GB Goodwood 6f Mdn Stks Thechildrenstrust 499.64
2017-08-07 19:15 GB Windsor 1m2f Mdn Stks Lawless Secret 250.0
2017-08-28 14:45 GB Ripon 1m2f Hcap Bahkit 204.55
2017-08-30 16:15 IRE Bellewstown 1m Mdn Accladora 160.0
2017-09-05 18:20 GB Kempton 6f Mdn Stks Razzmatazz 170.0
2017-09-30 15:35 GB Newmarket 1m1f Hcap Dolphin Vista 130.0
2017-10-03 19:10 GB Kempton 1m4f Mdn Stks Isaac Bell 379.57
2017-10-03 19:55 IRE Dundalk 1m4f Mdn Panther Soul 246.21
2017-10-04 19:10 GB Kempton 1m Nov Stks Kassar 151.02
2017-10-07 16:20 IRE Limerick 7f Stks Hit The Silk 130.99
2017-10-13 18:30 IRE Dundalk 7f Hcap Vincita 247.17
2017-10-14 18:45 GB Kempton 1m Nov Stks Indiscretion 560.0
2017-10-17 17:30 GB Leicester 1m2f Hcap Villette 140.0
2017-10-19 19:15 GB Newcastle 6f Nursery Cuppacoco 148.44
2017-10-27 20:30 IRE Dundalk 1m2f Hcap Gilded Reflection 102.63
2017-11-08 20:55 IRE Dundalk 1m2f Hcap Tropic Thunder 116.96
2017-11-10 17:45 GB Newcastle 7f Nov Stks Blue Harmony 192.88
2017-12-01 15:20 GB Southwell 1m Hcap Tilly Devine 463.21
JUMPS
Code: Select all
datetime cou racecourse description name bf_sp
------------------ --- --------------- --------------- ----------------- --------
2017-01-15 13:10 GB Kelso 2m Nov Hrd Seemorelights 216.8
2017-01-28 14:50 GB Cheltenham 3m6f XC Hcap Ch Urgent De Gregain 129.08
2017-02-22 13:55 IRE Punchestown 2m Mdn Hrd Kilfenora 231.47
2017-04-01 15:05 GB Uttoxeter 2m4f Hcap Hrd Classic Tune 135.13
2017-05-01 14:05 GB Warwick 2m Mdn Hrd Rebel Yeats 253.85
2017-05-21 15:35 IRE Limerick 2m3f Chs Windsor Higgins 286.27
2017-05-25 19:45 IRE Tipperary 2m Mdn Hrd Tay Lane 268.88
2017-07-05 16:50 GB Worcester 2m7f Hcap Hrd Amber Flush 166.63
2017-11-11 15:30 IRE Naas 2m3f Beg Chs Mossback 168.49
2017-11-30 12:40 GB Towcester 2m5f Nov Hrd Royal Magic 210.61
2017-11-30 14:55 IRE Thurles 2m Hcap Hrd Pound A Stroke 136.32
2017-12-02 13:55 IRE Fairyhouse 2m2f Mdn Hrd Discorama 470.65
Back in March 2017 in a thread about systems I saidSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pmAfter acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.
From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.
However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.
Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.
I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.
So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.
Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.
Welcome ideas.
" 2 This is an odd one and requires knowledge of trainer profiles etc and assessing quality of a trainers horse and the level of form of a stable over previous seasons ... In 2013/ 2014 Johnathon Portman had some huge priced placed horses making their debut but no winners
From Jan 1st 2015 up until now . He had 50 debut runners ... and 5 winners at odds of 66/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1 producing a level stakes profit of 124 points !!
Will it continue into 2017 or has it had its shelf life ? . Who knows ..."
Since then Indiscretion won for him at Kempton in October 2017 at odds of 100/1
Depending on what criteria you use . E.g. If you backed just 2/3 yo starting at odds of 66/1 or more that would have produce two winners since 2015 at odds of 66/1 and 100/1 but he had none in 2013/14
He's just a trainer whose stats I analyse . So who knows SHR you might do a lot worse than to back certain of his horses to get that that huge priced winner !!
So where you on it?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pmAfter acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.
From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.
However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.
Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.
I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.
So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.
Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.
Welcome ideas.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... 21399.1410
Not the 1000/1 winner you wanted but another debut winner for Johnny Portman in the 18.15 at Wolverhampton in UNVEILLING( traded around 18.00 before the off ) beating his better fancied stable companionHalliday wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:20 pmBack in March 2017 in a thread about systems I saidSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pmAfter acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.
From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.
However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.
Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.
I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.
So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.
Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.
Welcome ideas.
" 2 This is an odd one and requires knowledge of trainer profiles etc and assessing quality of a trainers horse and the level of form of a stable over previous seasons ... In 2013/ 2014 Johnathon Portman had some huge priced placed horses making their debut but no winners
From Jan 1st 2015 up until now . He had 50 debut runners ... and 5 winners at odds of 66/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1 producing a level stakes profit of 124 points !!
Will it continue into 2017 or has it had its shelf life ? . Who knows ..."
Since then Indiscretion won for him at Kempton in October 2017 at odds of 100/1
Depending on what criteria you use . E.g. If you backed just 2/3 yo starting at odds of 66/1 or more that would have produce two winners since 2015 at odds of 66/1 and 100/1 but he had none in 2013/14
He's just a trainer whose stats I analyse . So who knows SHR you might do a lot worse than to back certain of his horses to get that that huge priced winner !!
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Great call mate. I had a little glance at that race earlier but forgot about your post. Its amazing how a name of trainer can effect a horse being in the top 3 of the betting or just double digits.Halliday wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:26 pmNot the 1000/1 winner you wanted but another debut winner for Johnny Portman in the 18.15 at Wolverhampton in UNVEILLING( traded around 18.00 before the off ) beating his better fancied stable companionHalliday wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:20 pmBack in March 2017 in a thread about systems I saidSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:00 pmAfter acheiving more then at times I thought was possible with trading I now and have been for some time been desperate to back a horse priced 1000 and win.
From betting I have had a 66/1 winner and an 80/1 second over the years but I have never managed to have a 100/1 winner. In fact probably only ever backed a couple priced that high.
Hence why ive never hit it lol.
However I am really eager to break the duck and eventually back a 100/1 winner with the bookies and a 1000 pre race and inplay.
Now I know this sounds crazy because I know how uncommon a 1000 winner is at pre race odds however I want to acheive it.
Obviously I could just back all at 1000 etc and just sit and wait until eventually one wins. Thats not really my aim as that is pointless.
I am looking to work on a methodical approach... even if the result doesnt turn out profitable but has reasons behind acheiving it.
So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy. Obviously a profitable system is ideal but i know is not realistic.
Looking for any stories or any advice... simply because of how little these things do happen. For example theres probably 10 horses everyday priced over 100/1 but we know 100/1 shots come about every few months. So i am looking for something just to acheive backing one but not betting them all. Something with some logic.
Welcome ideas.
" 2 This is an odd one and requires knowledge of trainer profiles etc and assessing quality of a trainers horse and the level of form of a stable over previous seasons ... In 2013/ 2014 Johnathon Portman had some huge priced placed horses making their debut but no winners
From Jan 1st 2015 up until now . He had 50 debut runners ... and 5 winners at odds of 66/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1 producing a level stakes profit of 124 points !!
Will it continue into 2017 or has it had its shelf life ? . Who knows ..."
Since then Indiscretion won for him at Kempton in October 2017 at odds of 100/1
Depending on what criteria you use . E.g. If you backed just 2/3 yo starting at odds of 66/1 or more that would have produce two winners since 2015 at odds of 66/1 and 100/1 but he had none in 2013/14
He's just a trainer whose stats I analyse . So who knows SHR you might do a lot worse than to back certain of his horses to get that that huge priced winner !!
Used to be on Gubbage. http://www.gubbage.com/1-01-losers
Looks like site has been cut back. 1.01 stats no longer being updated.
On 100/1 - I've had a few, but then again too few to mention.
Looks like site has been cut back. 1.01 stats no longer being updated.
On 100/1 - I've had a few, but then again too few to mention.
is this clown for real , why do you guys regular to the forum let this Walter Mitty continue to post here with this sort of shite . He has previous on various horseracing forums , especially in matters of pace and times, which he quite plainly cannot grasp. 'Apparently' he won 30 grand on a big treble with Ladbrokes quite recently and was flashing a screenshot on another forum - strange he has not mentioned it here yet. Worked for The Baldings , Professional Gambler , Sued the Bookies , Pace Formula Maestro , Bodybuilder , Actor , the list goes on and on - i think now he is saying "somewhere" he is quite a decent long distance runner as well but i have his latest identity figured out on that forum and will expose him soon. His "Trading Diary" thread is comedy gold.So even if over 3 years i bet 3k and won 2k back using only certain runners to a selected criteria id be happy.