Section for Value
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- Posts: 3140
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I don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.
It would but it's highly risky - imagine 3 losing lays on the bounce taking a large chunk of your bank. Sure, you'll get it back if the value is there but it'll test your nerves to the limit!
I think it's bettet to look for the overpriced horses resulting from the underpriced favourite.
I think it's bettet to look for the overpriced horses resulting from the underpriced favourite.
Back a horse at 1/9, even if you got 93% winners it's a small percentage profit with large potential losses. At odds of 3/1 a 20% profit from 30% winners is achievable with far less risk.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pmI don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.
SeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use ithttps://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
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Yes with bookmaker prices but not on the exchange, price is irellavent as spreadbetting has said its all about your edge. Yes you might have a bad day but if you are beating SP long term you will be in profit.
However pricing up random markets isn’t going to make you rich, you need to automate or do it full time.
You need to change your frame of mind, although it’s the majority having this frame of mind that provides opportunities so carry on...Derek27 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:34 pmBack a horse at 1/9, even if you got 93% winners it's a small percentage profit with large potential losses. At odds of 3/1 a 20% profit from 30% winners is achievable with far less risk.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pmI don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Starting to like you!bobs71 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pmSeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
Kelly Criterion Calculator.xlsxKelly Criterion spreadsheet example.xls
and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use it
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
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- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Not sure giving a small edge to laying 9/1 shots versus backing 3/1 shots with a large edge really backs up your argument
From my limited experience I've always found any edges are usually better at the extremes of the odds ladder rather than the middle, maybe that's down to the way the crowd are happier to offer better value at those prices due to the likely risks of a) It winning, i.e underestimating long shots or b) the losses involved laying shorties c) the limited increments lower down the ladder to offer true value, who can say.
Last edited by spreadbetting on Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:03 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Re Appleby - No - their actually slightly profitable on the exchangesSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:12 pmThanks for your input buddy.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:49 pmWhy will you only be backing? Surely a lot of value will be available to lay also, i.e. you have Gold Flash at 10 and it's currently 4.5. Also what 'edge' will you be taking , backing at any price over your 100% forecast book would give you little worthwhile edge on many runners.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 amI will use my trading knowledge using the same stakes to trade these races on betdaq with only one trade per runner allowed and any price that is priced over my forecast will be staked at sp at 1 minute to post time for the same stakes.
I'm not having a dig btw as I've done similar things in the past making my own tissues and all it showed me was I was useless at it, but also the providers of newspaper tissues were just as bad The other thing I always noticed with out of line tissues is that the value to be had is usually early doors as markets do start to correct the more people that enter them. That's why it's very easy for people like Hugh Taylor to show long term profits by picking off and quoting bets on bady priced runners where little if any real money is actual laid at the prices.
One other thing would be remove any reference to the wife's account, they do read forums.
I just want to try and build a comparison to see if trading based on a tissue price. For example. Only interested in a selection to trade if I believe it has been priced incorrectly.
I am also really curious to know if and how many winners are winning much shorter then what i think they should be, there's no point backing value in every race if 75% of races are won by horses that are priced too short. Just found this way of thinking really interesting lately.
After your input it has alswo got me thinking.
Is it easier to find a value bet or is it easier to find a value lay? Are most winning horses overpriced or are they underpriced. Is their a bias in any way?
For example, On the AW Charlie Apple Godolphin newcomers, are always favourite and are always short. Surely these are priced too short..
This is to BFSP inc 5.5% comm
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Thanks Darling!!SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:54 pmStarting to like you!bobs71 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pmSeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
Kelly Criterion Calculator.xlsxKelly Criterion spreadsheet example.xls
and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use it
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
SeaHorse
This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc
It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc
It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
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- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Thanks.bobs71 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pmSeaHorse
This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc
It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end
aah! - could be mate - try again in a couple of minutesSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:16 pmThanks.bobs71 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pmSeaHorse
This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc
It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end
should be sorted now bud had Pms set to noSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:16 pmThanks.bobs71 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pmSeaHorse
This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc
It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end