Trading Horse racing : Lay the field - any stats available to assist?

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deggsy10
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:44 pm

Dallas wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:29 pm
Its actually the opposite, the longer distance races have a far higher percentage of losing runners trading below 2.0, than the 5f, 6f & 7f sprints
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?

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northbound
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:05 pm

deggsy10 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:44 pm
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?
Personally, I haven’t found anything worthwile YET by digging into that horse racing data for Lay The Field strategies.

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Dallas
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:46 pm

deggsy10 wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:44 pm
Dallas wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:29 pm
Its actually the opposite, the longer distance races have a far higher percentage of losing runners trading below 2.0, than the 5f, 6f & 7f sprints
Yeah I noticed that from looking at the stats. Do you think laying the field is worthwhile pursuing?
Like most strategies as a blanket approach it wont be, but if you dig the data you will find the courses (couple of Irish courses are very good for it), distances & race types its most suited to, also the optimal odds to lay can differ

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ANGELS15
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:49 pm

Apologies if this post is repeated. I swore I replied to this thread this morning and submitted but the post doesn't seem to have gone through. Anyway...

I have experimented a little with this strategy possibly around 100 races and I must say IMVHO it is a very risky strategy for a number of reasons. Fortunately I've only experimented with small stakes. I've tended to focus mostly on races up to 7f with a minimum of 10 runners. My experiences and observations are:

1) It is staggerging how often even in a big competitive field (6/1 the field) you are often only matched on one horse at odds on say 1.5. Even trying to lay the field at 2/1 you may only get 2 matched resulting in a small loss, on rare occasions get 3 matched just breaking even.

2) I've observed quite a few races where there have been several horses across the track 2 or 3 furlongs out battling away looked at my betfair screen expecting to see a green up only to see that one horse is already odds on and goes on to win by a a few lengths.

3) I've had the odd race where there was a tight photo finish yet only one of the two runners in the photo traded odds on (the winner). I even had one race where there was a close finish between the favourite and a longshot even though the distance was a nose the longshot won in the photo but only the favourite traded odds on!

4)What I believe is happening is that there are many professionals operating on course and they are in an excellent position to see what is happening with no picture delay like you have off course. They are probably only betting in the last 50 yards of a race where by then you have a clear winner.

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northbound
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Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:55 pm

Indeed.

My advice, if you are into Lay The Field strategies, is to focus on other sports. Golf for example.

You can download historical data for sports from data.betfair.com, although it’s a bit more complex to import and analyse.

Derek27
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Location: UK

Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:28 am

The sort of races best suited to this strategy arn't competitive races with close finishes, but races where the complexion of the race changes. I would imagine NH races would be better for obvious reasons.

I've traded on a lot of races where several horses traded under 1.5, but I've never counted the ones that didn't or paid much attention to it.

If you lay the field at 1.4, you need to get two bets matched 40% of the time just to break even, although this will be reduced if you can get 3 matched. I don't think realistically that you can achieve a substantially higher success rate than what you need to break even so I doubt there's much of a profit margin in the strategy.

Good luck anyway with the research.

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ANGELS15
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Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:00 am

That's an interesting point Derek27 however in order to get matched at odds on or even at 2/1 the complextion of the race does indeed need to change a few times however in my honest opinion if your'e looking at either code of racing and you have laid the field odds on it's still only likely you'll be matched if one horse really looks the winner and gets headed in the last few yards and that simply doesn't happen enough times to be profitable. In that very example you may have been matched on both at 2/1 but again that's no good. Like I said I've even seen it where a horse was literally joined on the line but still only one of them traded odds on.

There are a few old videos now on youtube touting this as a good system but again IMO misleading for aforementioned reasons.

Another thing I should say when I've been to watch racing live you can see a small group of horses clear of the field in the final furlong and you can often see the winner going best and that the others won't trouble it. Whereas when I've later gone into the bar and seen the replay on the racecourse tv it looks like the second horse had a chance. so on course bettors have that advantage also they don't have the picture delay.

Also the nature of jump racing including bumpers you will more likely get longer margin winners. if the complextion changes a few times in the last furlong you'll need 4 horses to be flip flopping the lead to get them all matched at 2/1, for odds on again your'e more likely to get a clear winner in the last 50 yards.

there are also other risks even with flat racing where if you attempt the strategy in a really big field say over 20 runners there may be too many for punters to focus on but even these big fields can have runaway winners. also the danger is that the big field splits into groups with one group clear of the others so what was a 24 runner field has effectively become an 8 runner group with 1 or 2 going best.

Lastly I should say IMO in running betting and even the betting exchanges are not exploited enough by the general off course public, the liquidity during live races is often quite thin with only tens of pounds available at any one time on anything but the trailers. The market really only comes to life at the business end where the on course professionalls mop up.

Having said all this no doubt there are a few people who have a handle on laying the field.

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jamdog
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:13 am

I'm trying to figure out how to discover how many races in which laying the field at x price would have made a profit. I've sorted the data by EVENT_ID I'm just a bit stumped what to do next. Anyone have any ideas?

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BetScalper
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:11 am

Pick race tracks that have a short run in to the finish line off the bend.

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jamdog
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:53 pm

Thanks for the tip, BetScalper. Ascot has a short run-in I believe. I thought there were fewer lead changes with short run-ins?

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