Trading Horse racing : Lay the field - any stats available to assist?

The sport of kings.
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BetScalper
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Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:04 pm

jamdog wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:53 pm
Thanks for the tip, BetScalper. Ascot has a short run-in I believe. I thought there were fewer lead changes with short run-ins?
Not in 5f, 6f, 7f handicap races without odds on favourites.

IF the handicapper has done his/her job properly then in theory they should all finish together. Obviously that doesn't happen very often but coming off the bend with a short run in will cause on-course traders and fast picture punters to cause havoc in the markets by pulling monies one side or the other. By laying the field pre-off at pre-determined odds means you will get matched quicker than trying to do it in-play with a slow feed.

Like I said, blindly laying all runners, every race will lead to no advantage and the poor house.

- 5f, 6f, 7f
- Short run in off the bend
- No odds on favourites
- Lay the field pre-off @ 50% of the favourites price

So, if the favourites price is 3 lay @ 1.5, 4 Lay @ 2.0, 5 Lay @ 2.5 etc.

Forget about trying to lay the field below 1.5. Yes it can be profitable but there is another twist which you need to take into account and if I give that away then I will be hurting my bottom line.

Use small stakes to start with until you are confident in the above. You only need about 10 races per week to make some good money once you start upsizing. But one step at a time. Pick your races, start small. Forget about becoming rich overnight. There are patterns, you need to find them and then before long you will be kicking yourself as to why you didn't think of it before!!!!!!

Goodluck,

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jamdog
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Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:34 pm

Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:50 pm

Superb stuff – thanks a lot. :) That's very interesting about the on-course traders. I have a lot to learn. Will keep digging through the data. Cheers.

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BetScalper
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:03 pm

jamdog wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:50 pm
Superb stuff – thanks a lot. :) That's very interesting about the on-course traders. I have a lot to learn. Will keep digging through the data. Cheers.
Slightly different but watch a football match on your TV and have the market open on Betfair/Bet Angel etc.

You will notice the market gets suspended 1 or 2 seconds before you see the goal scored on your TV.

I use to wonder what the hell was going on.

Its because BF have people at grounds who will suspend the market asap.

On-course horse racing traders are seeing things happen well before you do sitting at home. You think your favourite horse is in the lead and cant lose, little do you know that its just been brought down or the jockeys jumped off his ride. :)

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jamdog
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:03 pm

Yeah, I know courtsiders are a big deal in tennis. Some of them have Instagram accounts chronicling their jet set lifestyle, mixing with tennis royalty etc. Many regard it as ethically shady which I understand. A guy was arrested at the Australian Open a few years back but I think they dropped the charges in the end. That whole world of those wiseguys is fascinating to me.

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BetScalper
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:31 pm

jamdog wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:03 pm
Yeah, I know courtsiders are a big deal in tennis. Some of them have Instagram accounts chronicling their jet set lifestyle, mixing with tennis royalty etc. Many regard it as ethically shady which I understand. A guy was arrested at the Australian Open a few years back but I think they dropped the charges in the end. That whole world of those wiseguys is fascinating to me.
I was arrested at a French tennis match last year, held for 17 hours and later released without charge. They trashed my iPad. It was wiped back to factory setup. When I arrived back in the UK I got a follow-up visit from London city Police. They wanted to know what I was doing at the tennis match, who I worked for and asked to see bank statements. Was a complete nightmare.

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jamdog
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:42 pm

No way! :o I didn't know they took it that seriously. Were you betting at the time or just minding your business? I can well imagine the visit from London plod was stressful.

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BetScalper
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:49 pm

jamdog wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:42 pm
No way! :o I didn't know they took it that seriously. Were you betting at the time or just minding your business? I can well imagine the visit from London plod was stressful.
Yes, I was on behalf of a third party.

It's taken very seriously. One person I know was deported from Australia for doing something similar on tennis matches there.

The authorities seem to be convinced that nowadays there is a direct link between organized crime / money laundering / sporting events.

Obviously beating the in-play delays is a nice way to wash your money and earn a few quid along the way. :)

The police here went through 7 years of my bank statements and very kindly got HMRC involved. :(

Hence, I gave up doing it.

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jamdog
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:17 pm

Gangsters have to ruin everything. :) I remember when they were happy to launder their money through hairdressers and minicab firms. Different world, mate.

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