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Today's Football
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
The odds for a streaker at this years FA Cup final have recently dropped...I sense a trading opportunity?
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
So the same 2 teams as mentioned previously play again tonight at Tannadice. Dundee Utd absolutely stole the cup in the match mentioned above with a 90th minute winner. I watched the latter stages and it was a nonsense. The last time these 2 played here, the score was 1-1. United are desperate to get into the play-offs for the premiership, and Dumbarton look doomed to relegation. But life is never that simple. I've watched Scottish football on and off for 35 years; if there's one complete powderpuff team, it's Dundee Utd. When the chips are down, they just can't handle it. Ironically, their 2 greatest wins were against..........Barcelona. But the chips weren't down then; they had nothing to lose.
Backing 4/1 for the draw tonight with a small saver on the Dumbarton win could offer up a lovely trading opportunity with low risk. Beware though - liquidity will be tiny.
Backing 4/1 for the draw tonight with a small saver on the Dumbarton win could offer up a lovely trading opportunity with low risk. Beware though - liquidity will be tiny.
maybe the ou15 (in/out in 8 mins) and ou25 (in/out 30 mins) markets are the main draws here (for short sharp bursts)weemac wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:37 pmSo the same 2 teams as mentioned previously play again tonight at Tannadice. Dundee Utd absolutely stole the cup in the match mentioned above with a 90th minute winner. I watched the latter stages and it was a nonsense. The last time these 2 played here, the score was 1-1. United are desperate to get into the play-offs for the premiership, and Dumbarton look doomed to relegation. But life is never that simple. I've watched Scottish football on and off for 35 years; if there's one complete powderpuff team, it's Dundee Utd. When the chips are down, they just can't handle it. Ironically, their 2 greatest wins were against..........Barcelona. But the chips weren't down then; they had nothing to lose.
Backing 4/1 for the draw tonight with a small saver on the Dumbarton win could offer up a lovely trading opportunity with low risk. Beware though - liquidity will be tiny.
just like to throw in a few variants based on the projected stats for a game such as this . but yes, i agree they are definitely opposing philosophies. in truth, the best potential low(ish) risk trade here may be to lay 0-0 in drips twds half time (assuming no early goals and decent[ish] odds below 5-6) with a small lay on the lowest Any Other ahead of the IP segment (to hedge the 0-0 lays, SHOULD they occur)... OR, back the Draw
weemac - i think we possibly split the difference there on that game. tbh, it wasn't on my api radar, but did pique my interest once you'd mentioned it, so looked at what might be spat out. the ou15 market actually didn't perform too well inside the 8 minute window and although i didn't trade on it, was statistically disappointing.
however, the 3 other markets that i tracked did quite well. the CS AO market traded at < 13 on pre play, which although high, was still within range for considering the game - tick.
the ou25 kicked in after 5 mins on 2.3 odds, which signalled POSSIBLY a decent entry point in a game that was destined to fulfil the ou25 (OVER) lay. next up after that was the monitoring of the 0-0 lay which would only be triggered between 28 and 40 mins if odds were in the 5.5 ish range and below -tick.
luckily, in this game it kinda all coalesced to work out (1st goal was at 66 mins which is a nice place for this type of strategy -as all out by then). however, this type of game would only have been chosen via deep stat analysis that signalled a low scoring game. this one didn't and only had my interest due to your prescient comments.
in short, this game was the type of game that would have worked well for the strategy that i described ahead of the match starting. that said, something (for this game) didn't trigger for my criteria... maybe an opportunity missed, or just a risk averted
anyway, final score was 0-2 - weird how this funny old game transpires...
however, the 3 other markets that i tracked did quite well. the CS AO market traded at < 13 on pre play, which although high, was still within range for considering the game - tick.
the ou25 kicked in after 5 mins on 2.3 odds, which signalled POSSIBLY a decent entry point in a game that was destined to fulfil the ou25 (OVER) lay. next up after that was the monitoring of the 0-0 lay which would only be triggered between 28 and 40 mins if odds were in the 5.5 ish range and below -tick.
luckily, in this game it kinda all coalesced to work out (1st goal was at 66 mins which is a nice place for this type of strategy -as all out by then). however, this type of game would only have been chosen via deep stat analysis that signalled a low scoring game. this one didn't and only had my interest due to your prescient comments.
in short, this game was the type of game that would have worked well for the strategy that i described ahead of the match starting. that said, something (for this game) didn't trigger for my criteria... maybe an opportunity missed, or just a risk averted
anyway, final score was 0-2 - weird how this funny old game transpires...
Got the pattern of the game right with a fast Liverpool start, gave City too much to do though.