Here is race
Enjoj
I did
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/res ... icap-chase
Horse Predictor
Heres the tyres and wheels
Enjoj something for once in your life
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/res ... icap-chase
Enjoj something for once in your life
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/res ... icap-chase
Stellabot - i take it you are trying to predict future times for individual horses in upcoming races - you are going about this completely wrong - Times should preferably be turned into numerical ratings on a scale (preferably on a similar scale as the BHA handicappers for easy comparison) - you need standard times(not averages , they dont work) based on a decent sample of past races (a running 5 years is a good fit) - to obtain accurate figures , you have to look at the results of each meeting as a whole ( 7 races on a card , say average 8 runners = 56 data points) - Times are compared to standard and the difference is converted to pounds (same criteria as Handicappers use) - estimations are then made by comparing expected ability to actual ability which then gives you an indication of how the surface (going) and conditions (weather - mainly wind) was affecting the course. There are other critical aspects including rail movements (affects the distance of the race , therefore standards need adjusting) , weight carried and maturity (a mature 4yo should run faster than a 3yo with ability being equal) - Wind plays a big part at some tracks -right now Newcastle AW times are notoriously slow due to the configuration of the track and headwinds (the track rises 31 ft from the mile start to the finish and most of that rise occurs in the last 3f) Times can be very useful especially with young horses , but with the style of jockeyship here only around 20-25% of all races are really truly run. Because of this pace dependancy , sectional times are needed to put them into context - only around 6 tracks have official sectionals (supplied by TPD) in the UK , so most turn to timing from video replays and editing software - it is quite easy to obtain reasonably accurate last 3f or 2f sectionals with a bit of practise - adding sectionals to the timefigures means performances can be up or downgraded - As you can see putting a figure to a time is a bit more complex than chucking some raw times into a spreadsheet and hoping something meaningful is produced - Data is built up over time and courses are profiled to the point that a good time rater can produce very decent figures to identify hidden betting prospects - i have attached a shot of my figures from the day Enable ran back at Kempton , along with the sectional upgrades (took from video) - there was a 2yo running that day who ran the last 3f faster than Enable - his final time was also very useful after accounting for all the factors - that 2yo (Kessaar) came out on Saturday there and won the Group 2 Mill Reef at Newbury.
SeaHorse - how's it going mate? - Hope your still punting strong.
SeaHorse - how's it going mate? - Hope your still punting strong.
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Hi
Just to add
I dont trade/gamble sprints or any all weather races
I usually do 1m 2f + races on flat ,not all weather
The author does not accept any responsibility of loses by third parties
But any gains please donate a percentage
Good luck,
And maybe think about the free horse tracker services about
Just to add
I dont trade/gamble sprints or any all weather races
I usually do 1m 2f + races on flat ,not all weather
The author does not accept any responsibility of loses by third parties
But any gains please donate a percentage
Good luck,
And maybe think about the free horse tracker services about
Agree with bobs71, just subscribe to Timeform - they know what they're doing!
Phil Bull use to say Timefigures tell you how bad a horse isn't.
In other words, a good time proves a horse is good, a bad time doesn't prove one way or the other how good the horse is, because ultimately a horses time depends on how fast the front runners go, not on how good the horse is. Any method that rates horses purely on time will overlook top quality horses that haven't yet put up a good time.
If you're going to guess how fast a horse would run if the jockey didn't lose it's irons, why not just guess what times the non-runners and unseated riders would have gone?
Phil Bull use to say Timefigures tell you how bad a horse isn't.
In other words, a good time proves a horse is good, a bad time doesn't prove one way or the other how good the horse is, because ultimately a horses time depends on how fast the front runners go, not on how good the horse is. Any method that rates horses purely on time will overlook top quality horses that haven't yet put up a good time.
If you're going to guess how fast a horse would run if the jockey didn't lose it's irons, why not just guess what times the non-runners and unseated riders would have gone?
Mathematicians and phycisists cant be wrong
Clowns in pinstripe suits at racetracks or involved in racing dont manage appolo or space missions
Because they dont understand time
Thats why they are where they are
Nasa next job?
Dont think so
Newton Abbot steward at best
Clowns in pinstripe suits at racetracks or involved in racing dont manage appolo or space missions
Because they dont understand time
Thats why they are where they are
Nasa next job?
Dont think so
Newton Abbot steward at best
You don't need to be a mathematician, physicist or work for NASA to realise that horses don't run races as fast as possible. For horses with a turn of foot or running beyond their optimum distance, the slower the pace the better. They will actually deliver their best performances in a slow time.
Sorry Stellabot, I'm only trying to point out the flaws in your method (from what I've gathered, I haven't actually looked at the spreadsheet). If you want to carry on using it that's up to you.
Sorry Stellabot, I'm only trying to point out the flaws in your method (from what I've gathered, I haven't actually looked at the spreadsheet). If you want to carry on using it that's up to you.
If you want to live in a world of delusion where anyone who disagrees with you is wrong and flawed, you are fully entitled to live there!
I've taken the trouble to point out the flaws in your method, so's Bob. If you'd rather believe that a top class horse isn't as good as a maiden because he won a race in a slower time, all I can say is good luck with your betting.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/h ... -1-6951115
Maybe bhb is right
Maybe bhb is right