Trading Horse racing : New Trader trying to Stop Going In-Play

The sport of kings.
luckytrader
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:07 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:52 pm

PDC wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:21 am
luckytrader wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:22 pm
Being at it since 12 today must of done about 10 races but just working with 10.00 stakes i have managed a profit for the day of 118.00
That is one hell of a result to have averaged £11.80 per race when using just £10.00 stakes. To me that would seem to higher result and would indicate you are taking a lot of risk but I hope I am wrong. The returns seem to me to be out of whack with the stakes used :?
agree with you i was taking some risks and useing my whole bank but starting to understand the markets better . i seem to do better laying first then backing but managed to trade on a few drifters so kept laying them. i dont expect everyday to be like that . but it has give me confidence in that i can make it work. have traded 3 meetings so far today and i am 28.00 quid up but leaving the horses now and going for a few football trades . football is realy my passion .

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eightbo
Posts: 581
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Bristol, England, UK
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Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:59 pm

If you don't like the horses much you're more likely to get frustrated there so it'd make for better practice in managing your emotions, which there is no magic solution for other than hard work and constant exposure to stressful situations. Look to build the successful habits which keep you from doing your nuts & bolts in the future. No point trading well for a few days/weeks/months if you end up chasing down the line.

luckytrader
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:07 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:44 pm

Any advice on LTD ? watched lots of youtube vids on it and seems to be best laying in last 20 mins when price is around 2. 1/1 had a trade on the newcastle everton game 5 mins before kick off and layed it at 3.2 which i thought was way to short nust had a liability for 55.00 managed to cash out at half time for 17.00 profit . IMO when the draw is so short then it has to be a lay even before kick off /? sorry if am asking daft questions but is there a right way or wrong way to LTD or is it just down to personal choice ?

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ruthlessimon
Posts: 1626
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:31 pm

luckytrader wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:44 pm
seems to be best laying in last 20 mins when price is around 2.

i thought was way to short
Just thought I'd pick up on these two lines. They make me incredibly uncomfortable.

For me, "thought" has got be turned into fact

Seems best -> It's best
I thought -> It was

I do this with horse racing all the time.

When I was watching this market live (graph below), I had a "gut feeling" it was a back; but I didn't have a mandate; it fell outside my trade plan - which for me, means no trade.

That gut feeling "I thought it was a back", then becomes a trade idea to be tested on a dataset after market hrs. Can I define the pattern quantitatively (i.e. could a 13yr old understand this)? How has the pattern performed longterm? If it passes, my trade plan gets updated, & the next time I see the pattern I can act with speed, aggression & confidence.

That said, I could never get near £11 per race using £10 stakes; you should be giving us advice :)
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 187
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:27 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:55 am
'Redding Up' and moving onto the next market, is one of the hardest things for a trader to overcome, especially if you've been a punter previously, or still are a punter in addition to your trades.

You see, as a punter we are used to getting a run for our money. If you back a horse and he falls at the first, or gets beaten on the run-in, that's disappointing to have lost your bet, but at least you've had a run for your money. If you back Over 2.5 goals and it's still 0-0 at 60 mins, then admittedly it's not looking good, but you're not dead in the water yet - I've known many games go from 0-0 at 60mins to 3+ goals at 90mins

However, to lose money on a horse race, or a football match.......before the event has even started is alien to us punters, we expect a run for our money. Therefore, our gambling instincts take over and we let the trade run, until we've totally done our bollocks. We end up losing £300 because we couldn't accept a £5 loss!

It's pure psychology - you need to drum into yourself, that whilst trading and gambling have crossovers, THEY ARE NOT THE SAME!

When you are trading, you need to have a trading mindset. Just accept that you will lose on some markets, and that means taking the red and moving on, just in the same way that when taking a green, it means you don't care who wins or loses the match/race - the same applies to taking a red

It took an eye-watering loss for me to finally accept this
Totally agree with LeTiss even though I can't do it myself! That post is the reason why I don't trade … I don't have the concentrated discipline to do it 'properly'. It's like if you want to give up alcohol don't buy alcohol! I also find the market has something like a 90% consistent move in the wrong direction! But … one thing I have wondered about is the B2L or L2B question. I appreciate a professional trader is happy with both. I have tended to prefer B2L because when L2B the stake/money amount is diminished by the odds and I've always thought I wasn't putting the lay 'liability' money to work. Anyway my question is … would there be any advantage/reason as a newbie to look to trade those runners that you think have a good chance to win (B2L) or not win (L2B) in an effort to try and keep the market momentum in your favour. A bit like never going against the 200 day MA with FX?

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2020
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:35 am

I've seen this many times and it almost always comes down to the fear of failure. For example, you cannot accept a £10 red so you jump in play as you described. This is happening because you are not thinking long term, have probably not experienced a long term profit and are failing to cut out of a trade early enough.

My advice would be to address the last issue first; when you get it wrong, cut out of the trade quickly rather than waiting in the hope it will go your way and/or letting it turn in play when the pre-race market has not gone your way. It is NOT a sign of weakness or failure as you may feel it is. This is a part of trading and the sooner you accept the errors the sooner you will get on the path to longer term profits. Hell, I get it wrong several times a day but I just accept it and try again. You can be sitting in a great trade when suddenly a large order blows you out of the water and a profit becomes a loss. When you get to experience a longer term view you will see that you can also be sitting in a great position and a large order makes it even better. Sadly, with a short term view you rarely get the chance to experience this.

Cut your losses quicker and try to focus on a day's results then a week's results and a month's results.....

HTH

JG

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brimson25
Posts: 385
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:21 pm

JG - I suffer from the not cutting losses quickly enough. Can I ask - how do you distinguish between being "shaken out" by prices which are whipping around (and will come back) and mistakes that you need to cut?

I realise this is the million dollar question and may in some ways be facile, I suspect the answer is simply experience; but do you have a rule of thumb about how much loss you're prepared to accept (in money or ticks?), and then simply cut at the point, regardless of your judgement about what it likely to happen next?

Thanks for any insight and apologies if this is a daft, unanswerable question.

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2020
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:31 pm

brimson25 - No such thing as a stupid question. If you don't know the answer then a question is always valid.

You are correct when you say experience counts for a lot so here goes with trying to help.

When you are joining a market, ask yourself if you are in new territory or if the market has already ventured that way. What I mean is the market has a way of finding the correct price and if you look at the amount of money traded it should give you a clue if you are in the correct place. Admittedly, if we are talking drifter or steamer then you could be on fresh ground but the amounts being traded will give you an idea of how safe it is. For example, you are looking at only £3K traded on your current price position whereas £39K has been traded 6-7 points below you and you are hoping to find a big drift. Ask yourself "what has changed in the market to make this horse trade way above what seems like the correct price?" If you cannot find a sensible reason then chances are there's been an overshoot on a move and it could crash back to the safety of £39K, a price where the market seemed to happy to trade i.e. Backers and layers agreed on the price.

Remember, as you move up in price, the layers are less likely to get involved as their liability is greater. The backers would love to get involved but there is not much money from the layers hence the price quickly moves back in. TIP: On a drifter, the layers will leave the sinking ship BUT there is a reason for this. Perhaps the horse is sweating or pulling or any other reason you can attribute to a lack of confidence. That is what I mentioned above, there is a reason for the market change, it is not a flight of fancy or an overshoot. The move is happening for a reason so you can venture into the market with more confidence.

If the price shortens there comes a point where the backers lose interest and so a reverse can come if a layer jumps in.

Stay amongst the money for now and it is less likely you will get a large unpredictable move. Yes it will still happen but less frequesnt. The amount of loss is personal but never let it get 5 ticks away from you.

HYH

JG

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brimson25
Posts: 385
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:36 pm

Thanks very much for your very quick and detailed reply. I've always enjoyed your posts here.

Thanks again.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 4189
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:40 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:31 pm
When you are joining a market, ask yourself if you are in new territory or if the market has already ventured that way.
JG
Hi, may I ask, are you advocating being mindful of a reversion to vwap? ...unless there's a reason it shouldn't?
If so the edge must be in being astute enough to recognise those reasons in the moment, because the data in itself doesn't reveal anything conclusive for the general case, well not to me anyway. I hope I'm wrong for obvious reasons and if so I'll sharpen my pencil and keep looking.

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