If I did not have an ego I would not be here tonight
If I did not have an ego I might not think that I was right (Skyhooks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpm9xwb5VnY )
These fora contain some very good guidance and information for newbies in various topics.
What follows are my own views on a number of topics that respond to frequent questions from newbies (which I may update/edit from time to time and will generally post this topic in response to newbie questions that I think can benefit from it). As they are my own views others may agree or disagree with them. I simply offer them as the views of someone who has achieved consistent profit for more than 10 consecutive years.
In the beginning
To commence you need an idea.
But I got a plan
Oh, do you understand? (The Verve - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p7jMXnLewY)
Open a google doc called “[yourname] Betfair ideas”. This will be your journal to record your ideas and happenings over your betfair journey. Keeping records of your ideas and analysing your outcomes writing things down and returning to them over and over and over again is the key to success.
In addition to a journal of ideas also keep a diary of what you do each day on Betfair. Open a google doc called “[yourname] Betfair diary”. For example, record in your diary notes about various horse races and how each race performed and how each course performed overall on each day. Do you notice things about big race days and big races versus quieter race days and small races? Are there differences between maidens and group one races? Are there differences between Saturdays and Tuesdays? Whatever the sporting event keep a good record of what happens over time and over different parts of the year.
After you have fully recorded your first idea proceed to implementing your idea. An example of a written down idea is Lay the Draw in EPL and that you will lay the draw in each match where 20 mins before the start the draw is between 2.5 and 3.5 for a liability of £100 and that you will trade out after a goal or red out if the draw gets to 2. No matter what happens stick to your idea. If for example there are no goals and the draw reaches 2 then red out and accept your loss. Consider why this happened?.
Now that you are up and going, you will have lots of strategies. Understand which of your strategies are successful and which are not and consider why in each case.
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdRH5wzCQQw WC
The final part of the beginning is analysing your results over a time period. I analyse my results quarterly but in the beginning I suggest you analyse your results on a weekly basis. For this you download your results from that fair and then look on the forum or elsewhere to find good software tools that allow you to analyse your results. Eg Excel power query. Do you notice anything or see any trends?
Seeking help and providing information
Lend me your ears, then I'll sing you a song
I will try not to sing out of key, yeah (Joe Cocker via Lennon/McCartney - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCrlyX6XbTU )
The forum is full of lots of experienced and forthright people. When asking for assistance give as much information as possible (it’s always very helpful if you can paste the log file if you consider there was a glitch or misfire) and consider all of the responses carefully (even if you disagree with a response consider why the response was given).
Is it getting better?
Or do you feel the same?
Will it make it easier on you now?
You got someone to blame (U2 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftjEcrrf7r0)
You are responsible for your own losses. It was your decision to choose to use the software and seek to make a profit on the exchange. When making a response think if it will assist you now and in the future?
There is a wonderful positive example of asking for assistance, providing information and getting great replies, read the thread “Trading what I see” viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21616. What do you see?
If you think of abusing people?
We could live
For a thousand years
But if I hurt you
I'd make wine from your tears (INXS - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VU9DjQpvMQ)
Loss recovery, martingale, gambler’s fallacy
Just when you are at the point that it will take your entire bank (and you don’t want to go back to your wife to make yet another deposit in to your account) and ok you’ve lost 5 in a row, but that means the next event is real value because this kind of thing just doesn’t happen 6 times in a row, it never has in the history of sports betting, it just ….
You’ve gotta ask yourself a question
Do I feel lucky?
Well do ya, punk? (Dirty Harry, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ky7rHZmk9Yw)
If you are lucky enough to have discovered a method to consistently profit from your ideas congratulations. Losses are an inevitable part of taking part in this game. A 100% strike rate isn’t going to happen.
Loss recovery systems do not indicate that you are successful. Loss recovery systems all tend to some version of martingale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingal ... ng_system). While you are at it think about gambler’s fallacy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Take a look at my greyhound results posted at viewtopic.php?f=11&t=13541&start=440. What should I do? Should I worry about losses and if so how?
Scaling up
Sure, 10% a day? Do you understand the concept of compounding?
In every market there is a maximum available profit and there is a maximum available profit for any particular strategy. In addition, any time you match a bet or make money available away from but near the action, you impact the market in a way in which it would not have been impacted had you not participated.
Your strategy might be successful at lower stakes and unsuccessful at higher stakes. Maybe, you need to scale down? And expand the markets. Shouldn’t your aim be to have a small edge and flip a coin millions of times rather than to have a small edge and flip it occasionally?
The steam roller
Do not follow strategies that are the equivalent of picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. The steam roller never stops. You stumble or get your dressing gown caught in it - it's over. How does it happen? You back at 1.05 and are going to lay at 1.04. After all, the favourite is not going to stumble now? The come back scenario for the underdog is simply impossible. But they hit the next ball for six. And now the odds are 1.1. But this bowler will close it out with a wicket now because, c’mon i mean, you know, its just crazy. What, another six, but it was lucky, off the top edge. Still 1.8, sheepers, if I press the “close and green” now I’ll have a giant red. I’ll just let it run, I mean, surely, come on, this is just bizarre and unprecedented …. Sweat pouring out of your armpits, your throat is dry, they need three off the last ball, it’s just, I can’t even, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
And afterwards ...
Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again (Simon & Garfunkel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9z87viDmOo)
And then when you get past that ...
Round like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel
Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel (Windmills of your mind, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEhS9Y9HYjU)
And then there is the long term damage. How do you recover? Do you accept the lesson (go back to the beginning above, write this in your daily diary and write this down in your ideas journal). Or does it just play in your mind for the next six months, just before you go to sleep, like a recurring nightmare, like the circles that you find in the windmills of your mind?
Resources
But there were other times,
I thought I was mainlining the secret truth of the universe (True Dectective, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qowEisIvD7k)
My suggestions
Do you need to go any further than:
- Peter Webb - https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/
Daniel Kahneman - https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/book ... eview.html
Malcolm Gladwell - https://cpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/faculty.s ... wingup.pdf
Dave McRaney - https://youarenotsosmart.com/
Moneyball - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtumWOsgFXc (think about this, do you care if it is a walk or a hit? You do not)
This is a zero sum game
Gentlemen, welcome to Fight Club
The first rule of Fight Club is, we do not talk about Fight Club (Fight Club, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC1yHLp9bWA)
Even if we rarely talk about it, the simple fact is you are trying to take my money and I am trying to take yours. I'm a millionaire, that's the difference. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5PrrVt34Mw
And no matter what, Betfair is creaming off the rake. Just as quickly we calculated 2% of the pot and had taken if off the table https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccunmtqqRV0
So, if that is the case, where do you find your edge?
To be a rock, and not to roll (Led Zepplin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-TNkZeqskw)
This is just gambling (I don't believe any of you are sucessful)
It is the task of the enlightened not only to ascend to learning and to see the good but to be willing to descend again to those prisoners and to share their troubles and their honors, whether they are worth having or not. And this they must do, even with the prospect of death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RWOpQXTltA
I understand that you are smart and as a smart person if you can't make this work no-one can. Thank you for your original contribution - see viewtopic.php?f=5&t=10865&start=90