Where is the value here?

[JP Esq]

At the time of writing, the following teams are available to back at these prices on Betfair to win the Premier League in the 2023/24 season:

Chelsea 19.0
Newcastle 30.0

Both are effectively offering at least a £3k liability with current available amounts so I would regard them both as "real" prices.

However, at the same time, Sporting Index are offering the following points quotes for both teams:

Sell/Buy

Chelsea 66-67.5
Newcastle 66-67.5

Therefore either the value is on "Buy Chelsea Points or Sell Newcastle Points" OR "Back Newcastle or Lay Chelsea on Betfair"

Any thoughts on whereabouts the value is located?

Its tempting to say its a little bit on all 4 sections but my intuition is telling me that isnt the case here. Clearly, something is wrong somewhere, but I cant make my mind up where exactly.

[JohnT]

it's similar to when you have 2 golfers at same price in the win market
and different prices in the top 5 market.

[weemac]

Not sure you can deduce value at all, since these markets aren't comparing like with like. One market is absolute; the other relative - the BF market's all about beating all other teams, whereas the spread market cares nothing for performance relative to the other teams.

[JP Esq]

Not sure you can deduce value at all, since these markets aren't comparing like with like. One market is absolute; the other relative - the BF market's all about beating all other teams, whereas the spread market cares nothing for performance relative to the other teams.

Im inclined to agree with this if the implied volatility (IV) of Chelsea and Newcastle is different. However, this is the most attention soaked, information saturated football league in the world. Its the league that the best minds in the betting world will happily say "it cant be beat". Therefore, I cant accept that Chelsea's IV is that much higher then Newcastle's. Id also say that the points totals, to some extent, are relative to other teams... they have to acquire the points they earn from their opponents.

My gut instinct is something along the lines of buying Chelsea points and laying them on Betfair. Too late in the day to properly work out the appropriate staking though, regardless of if its positive EV or not.

[ShaunWhite]

I doubt there's any value straight betting, I'd be more interested in looking at the fixture list and thinking about where those prices might be after x matches have been played. But that's just a std trading perspective, the odds of an x tick rise or y ticks fall. I'm not sure about the over/under reactions to early results as I'm not really a football guy.

[jamesedwards]

At the time of writing, the following teams are available to back at these prices on Betfair to win the Premier League in the 2023/24 season:

Chelsea 19.0
Newcastle 30.0

Both are effectively offering at least a £3k liability with current available amounts so I would regard them both as "real" prices.

However, at the same time, Sporting Index are offering the following points quotes for both teams:

Sell/Buy

Chelsea 66-67.5
Newcastle 66-67.5

Therefore either the value is on "Buy Chelsea Points or Sell Newcastle Points" OR "Back Newcastle or Lay Chelsea on Betfair"

Any thoughts on whereabouts the value is located?

Its tempting to say its a little bit on all 4 sections but my intuition is telling me that isnt the case here. Clearly, something is wrong somewhere, but I cant make my mind up where exactly.

This doesn't necessarily follow, because the plausible points spread for Chelsea could be much wider than the plausible points spread for Newcastle. eg Chelsea could get only 50 points if they have another nightmare season, but are probably much more likely than Newcastle to put in a 90pt+ season which you probably need to win the league. Newcastle plausible points spread could be 60 to 80, with 80 not likely enough to win the league. Therefore the SI spread is the same while Chelsea are more likely to win the league.

This bears out if you check out the BF odds for a top 4 finish, with Chelsea and Newcastle virtually identical.