Lay the draw, exit or stay in? - Bayern vs Leverkusen

[ShaunWhite]

I'm just sat here thinking well why does it need to be the draw?

Maybe I can lay the current fave in the 2nd half.

First sentence good, 2nd sentence you fell back into the same trap. Ie picking a single selection or scenario first rather than simply looking for opportunity anywhere and any time. Your model needs to produce probabilities which you then compare with the market.

How would you produce accurate probabilities though? This is problem with Football, it's a sport where literally anything can happen. So your model could get everything right, predict that something is going to happen, tell you it's the right time to enter a trade because of the current price so you enter and yet the completely opposite happens. Hence having appropriate exit plans, there's absolutely no avoiding losses, we all know that but I think the long-term profit comes from getting the entry and exit points right but is it possible to set and follow rules for entry/exits and be profitable long-term without needing to adjust the rules inplay? Because this is the time emotion sets in and you can make the wrong decision.

Models aren't about being right on individual matches, they're about being 1 or 2% more accurate than the market over the year. And pricing models tell you the range of probability of an event, so there's no 'getting it wrong'.

"How would you produce accurate probabilities?" Hard work, hard study, rigorous critical analysis, dedicating every waking moment to contemplation.... etc etc It's not something people do in a fortnight. Equally, statistics is a mature subject so there's no need to reinvent the wheel.

[Kai]

So many questions but no mention of prices

Models aren't about being right on individual matches, they're about being 1 or 2% more accurate than the market over the year.

Like Shaun said, market can only really be efficient long-term

But inplay is subjective AF, or is experiential a better word? In any case have fun quantifying every situation

You've got a very dynamic sport played in a rigidly priced market, which does sound like a tradable combination

Honestly who can really say what the exact price is for every situation, market could say "NO MORE GOALS EXPECTED" and then something happens and a few subs later a price of 1.5 could in reality be 2 or 4 or 10, a match can flip on its head at any time and high xG chances can be created inside a few mins

Overall not only can you pick off incredible value (if patient), you can create your own value as well (if impatient)

[Kai]

Hey,

It depends on your system, but we leave here a few suggestions for you:

1.Exiting the trade with a loss is a wrong approach in our opinion. There are a lot of late goals out there and also, a goal in the late stages of the match will bring you a much higher profit than a goal in the early stages.

2. If you are in profit, of course you should hedge your position. But yes, it depends when you do that. As we mentioned before, there are a lot of late goals and if the score is 2-1 in the 88' min, we do recommend you to exit the trade there. ROI should be ok at that time and an equalizer will ruin your profit and bring you almost 100% loss at that stage.

3. Watch the match live.

Cheers!

Btw FTA you really need to sort out those spelling errors

[elguiriloco]

Yo trabaje ese partido y lo hice muy mal.Creo rexordar que aproximadamente eran arriesgar 450€ para ganar 120€ en lay del empate y cubrir con unos 15€ el back 0-0.
En cuanto marco el gol el Bayer yo habría cerrado con unas ganancias de +55€ del lay y una perdida de 15€ del back 0-0.
Pero sin embargo no estaba viendo el partido en directo por un error y cuando entre estaba 1-1 con unas perdidad de -15€ del back 0-0 y unas perdidas de -35€ del lay al empate, ahi cerre en rojo.
Si hubiera arriesgado, por supuesto habria cerrado con el 2-1 inmediatamente con un +90€ y un -15 del 0-0.
Tras estudiarlo mucho estoy cambiando la estrategia a cubrir con el 1-1 en vez de 0-0, ya que el 6% de los partidos en la Bundesliga quedan 0-0.
O con la variante de cubrir con el 1-1 HT y la del NoFavorito Ht y Draw FT.

[ShaunWhite]

Yo trabaje ese partido y lo hice muy mal.

Puede resultar difícil ver el panorama general y demasiado fácil centrarse en partidos individuales. Hacer algo bien y perder, o hacer algo mal y ganar es algo a lo que tenemos que acostumbrarnos, pero no es la forma en que los humanos suelen aprender.

Es un foro en inglés, por lo que es posible que necesites utilizar el traductor para que otros respondan.

[ija34]

Yo trabaje ese partido y lo hice muy mal.Creo rexordar que aproximadamente eran arriesgar 450€ para ganar 120€ en lay del empate y cubrir con unos 15€ el back 0-0.
En cuanto marco el gol el Bayer yo habría cerrado con unas ganancias de +55€ del lay y una perdida de 15€ del back 0-0.
Pero sin embargo no estaba viendo el partido en directo por un error y cuando entre estaba 1-1 con unas perdidad de -15€ del back 0-0 y unas perdidas de -35€ del lay al empate, ahi cerre en rojo.
Si hubiera arriesgado, por supuesto habria cerrado con el 2-1 inmediatamente con un +90€ y un -15 del 0-0.
Tras estudiarlo mucho estoy cambiando la estrategia a cubrir con el 1-1 en vez de 0-0, ya que el 6% de los partidos en la Bundesliga quedan 0-0.
O con la variante de cubrir con el 1-1 HT y la del NoFavorito Ht y Draw FT.

Creo que habría sido un partido difícil de intercambiar, ya que después de que el Bayern anotara el primer gol, probablemente esperarías que hicieran el 2-0, por lo que permanecerías en el intercambio ya que era muy temprano en el juego y luego después de que ellos Si hicieras el 1-1, probablemente tomarías la decisión de quedarte e intercambiar después del siguiente gol. El próximo gol no llega hasta el minuto 86, por lo que probablemente habrías cambiado por una derrota antes de esto de todos modos. A menos que hubiera señales claras de que el Leverkusen empataría el partido o que el Bayern marcaría un gol tardío. Todo habría sido cuestión de tiempo para sacar un buen provecho de este partido.

[Kai]

el back 0-0

[Atho55]

These are overview figures for the Bundesliga from 6/8/2004 to a few days ago. Basically a 1 is returned if the criteria is met and a 0 if not. The 1`s can be counted and compared to the total No of fixtures which is 5850. 24.8% of games have ended in a draw.

Bund Top Level Figs.png

Now looking at how many games ended in a draw when the Home odds are xx a count and a sum of the draw 1`s and 0`s can be plotted, find the Odds of Bayern (I think it`s about 1.5) and find that on the bottom scale of the chart or look at the highlighted bit on the Pivot table. Historically 22.73% of games HAVE ended in a draw WHEN THE ODDS OF THE HOME TEAM ARE 1.5. Of course it does not mean that this one would have done even though it did.

Bund % of Draws v Games Started using Home Team Odds.png