Possible Winning Strategy?

[OvergrownHeffo]

I've been using bet angel for about a month now with an OK strike rate per week, but I think that may be done to luck. However I've just noticed something potentially very useful.
I'll get to the point - I noticed on football matches, just before half time - the odds tend to usually be drifting in one direction due to the time decay without a goal scored i.e. Odds of over 2.5 goals drifting fast if no goals etc. As soon as the half time whistle blows the odds freeze at that point. However if you watch them they tend to reverse (only by about 2 ticks) in the opposite direction. Once the 15 mins are up and its back in play, they are back drifting again.

I've traded a few high liquidity matches catching this little bounce for a few ticks with high stakes and it seems to be working. It's slow but reliable as you don't have to worry about a goal being scored and wiping out your profits. Good for scalping too if the moneys there. Just wondering does anyone else have any experience with this or is it just in my head/coincidence?

And if it is just coincidence, does anyone has any sure fire tricks of definitely knowing for sure when odds will drift/bounce etc after a specific event occurs (like catching a bounce after a goal is scored and its over/under-priced etc) Million dollar question I know, but even anything small that is reliable can help me build my bank role as I'm finding just regular trading seems to be quite 50/50 most for the time

Thanks guys

[Kai]

Just wondering does anyone else have any experience with this or is it just in my head/coincidence?

Well, catching the HT bounce was a relatively common little strategy when I was starting out at a newbie community, I remember using it on the CS market for about a week before moving on.

So it's not in your head, various price overreactions both big and small are part and parcel of the market.

Just don't expect a lot of matching activity during the break, something would need to happen just before HT to trigger a bit of activity but how scalpable it really is would depend on the volume.

[Michael5482]

I've been using bet angel for about a month now with an OK strike rate per week, but I think that may be done to luck. However I've just noticed something potentially very useful.
I'll get to the point - I noticed on football matches, just before half time - the odds tend to usually be drifting in one direction due to the time decay without a goal scored i.e. Odds of over 2.5 goals drifting fast if no goals etc. As soon as the half time whistle blows the odds freeze at that point. However if you watch them they tend to reverse (only by about 2 ticks) in the opposite direction. Once the 15 mins are up and its back in play, they are back drifting again.

I've traded a few high liquidity matches catching this little bounce for a few ticks with high stakes and it seems to be working. It's slow but reliable as you don't have to worry about a goal being scored and wiping out your profits. Good for scalping too if the moneys there. Just wondering does anyone else have any experience with this or is it just in my head/coincidence?

And if it is just coincidence, does anyone has any sure fire tricks of definitely knowing for sure when odds will drift/bounce etc after a specific event occurs (like catching a bounce after a goal is scored and its over/under-priced etc) Million dollar question I know, but even anything small that is reliable can help me build my bank role as I'm finding just regular trading seems to be quite 50/50 most for the time

Thanks guys

HT can be decent but your fighting with everyman and his dog to get matched and need good queue positions over not a lot of money. It's a good low risk place to start for anyone. Offer money up don't take prices and don't get disheartened if you don't get matched.

Goals, red cards, missed chances late on, time decay anything on the pitch that creates indecision in the market, change brings opportunity and you can look to scalp these if money flowing in allows but your up against people either at the game or with fast pics who'll eat most of it up and they have a very good idea where the prices should be.

Record a game and record a market (match odds or overs/unders or both) play them back simultaneously watch how the market reacts to certain events in the game. Only one game granted but it'll start to give you an idea.