So I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
Personal Journey - discovering WHY many strategies don't work
I'm not a regular horse racing trader anymore, but that strategy wouldn't be suitable for volatile markets where the price jumps around. And it's not necessarily gaps you need to look for, perhaps 2-figure sums in between 4-figure sums, so you're money is near the front of the queue but there's plenty of money at the neighbouring price that needs to be eaten. Ideally, you want people to add money behind yours so you've got a 3-4 figure sum with yours at the front.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
Tried that also and failed.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 5:54 pmI'm not a regular horse racing trader anymore, but that strategy wouldn't be suitable for volatile markets where the price jumps around. And it's not necessarily gaps you need to look for, perhaps 2-figure sums in between 4-figure sums, so you're money is near the front of the queue but there's plenty of money at the neighbouring price that needs to be eaten. Ideally, you want people to add money behind yours so you've got a 3-4 figure sum with yours at the front.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
What I think went wrong was that I was not vigilant enough when those sums changed as the price got closer to them.
Possibly an avenue to explore with automation with careful criteria, theres a whole bunch of conditions to include in the setup. Probably needs including whether the horse is rapidly shortening / drifting as a reason not to fire the bet.
Well yes, you could chose that as the answer to the majority of failed methods
- firlandsfarm
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Have you read Goat's thread of "Trading what I see"? viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21616&hilit=goat
How many times did you try it?Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
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- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
- Location: Newport
One think to note is that I wouldn’t be trying that in low liquidity markets like greyhounds otherwise you will become poor very quickly.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
Excellent thread idea OP. I don't say this lightly, I call things as I see it, based on merit.
Good input already from Linus and others
If you're taking suggestions a small one would be to maybe include a main question along with the hypothesis.
For example, one of the main questions here could be why are there gaps in the first place etc
Good input already from Linus and others
If you're taking suggestions a small one would be to maybe include a main question along with the hypothesis.
For example, one of the main questions here could be why are there gaps in the first place etc
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
A simple tweak could give you a better chance.Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pm
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
Choose a spot 4/5 ticks (if a gap even better) either side (input stake in both sides) and let the market come to your trade. The closer it gets to your trade, in either direction, then enter a trade the tick before your position as the money flow reduces. That way, you increase the chance of a winning trade if momentum and direction continues, because your first trade was already in the market, ahead of the queue.
You can also use the PIQ (price in queue) option to see how far down it is before it gets matched.
Don't tell anyone....
Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
That's quite a one dimensional strategy. More of a tactic than a strategy.
If you put that into different markets, you will get different results. If you enter at 10 minutes, or 2 minutes. You will get different results.
It sounds like you are applying a strategy without any other aspects to it. So it will fail.
Euler wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:51 pmFugazi wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:51 pmSo I have been thinking about a thread that is a bit of a personal journey, but offers something different that people will find worth engaging with and reading.
My plan is to post adhoc about basic strategies I have failed with, and a hypothesis as to WHY I think this is. I think I will start very simple and perhaps delve into more complex strategies and nuances as I progress.
Idea 1:
Filling gaps in the ladder.
Where I would see a gap in the ladder, I would put a £1 bet in that spot.
Original hypothesis: I will be the first to get a match at that price, and therefore should have time to scalp before the price moves
Hypothesis why it didn't work:
The price ploughs through to the next price where there is more money available to match.
That's quite a one dimensional strategy. More of a tactic than a strategy.
If you put that into different markets, you will get different results. If you enter at 10 minutes, or 2 minutes. You will get different results.
It sounds like you are applying a strategy without any other aspects to it. So it will fail.
Takes a lot of finesse to convert an 'idea' into a strategy.I would say more of an 'idea'
I guess the benefit of this thread is that it might stop you wasting a 'sh*t' load of time trying to convert an 'idea' into a 'profitable' strategy
Not anywhere near as many times as I would to confirm a winning strategy. Self preservation though to decide quickly when a strategy doesn't workYep, not completed it yet but gave me the inspiration to try reinvent the wheel and come up with discussion not already in therefirlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 9:11 pmHave you read Goat's thread of "Trading what I see"? viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21616&hilit=goat
How many times did you try it?
Yep, came to that realisation rather quickly!Archery1969 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:00 pm
One think to note is that I wouldn’t be trying that in low liquidity markets like greyhounds otherwise you will become poor very quickly.
Noted, will do. Thank you.Kai wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:26 pmExcellent thread idea OP. I don't say this lightly, I call things as I see it, based on merit.
Good input already from Linus and others
If you're taking suggestions a small one would be to maybe include a main question along with the hypothesis.
For example, one of the main questions here could be why are there gaps in the first place etc
Took me a while to visualize this. Will have a mess with it tonightwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:47 pmA simple tweak could give you a better chance.
Choose a spot 4/5 ticks (if a gap even better) either side (input stake in both sides) and let the market come to your trade. The closer it gets to your trade, in either direction, then enter a trade the tick before your position as the money flow reduces. That way, you increase the chance of a winning trade if momentum and direction continues, because your first trade was already in the market, ahead of the queue.
You can also use the PIQ (price in queue) option to see how far down it is before it gets matched.
Don't tell anyone....
Of course once the initial attempt didn't work I did start playing around with various settings / markets but came to the same conclusion. Was aiming for brevity in the post with a simple discussion point to begin with.Euler wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:51 pm
That's quite a one dimensional strategy. More of a tactic than a strategy.
If you put that into different markets, you will get different results. If you enter at 10 minutes, or 2 minutes. You will get different results.
It sounds like you are applying a strategy without any other aspects to it. So it will fail.
Exactly this. Partly why I started with such a basic idea/strategy. Don't need to go into war and peace of every iteration of it and 6 months of work to discover the fundamental idea is flawed[/quote]
How far above BSP to be sure you're making profit?
I've been analysing another failed method of mine (small sample, 30 bets). I have found that on cross referencing BSP and the odds I backed at, I seem to be above BSP 80% of the time!
so for example I back at 2.28 - BSP was 2.24
I know there is no strict answer, but I wonder when you consider commission and BSP not always being the true value, what people think a rough ballpark would be to profit long term? Also, I need to check the times I was under value, if these are wildly more under value than the times I got over value. I suspect this will be the most likely finding in a bigger sample.
I've been analysing another failed method of mine (small sample, 30 bets). I have found that on cross referencing BSP and the odds I backed at, I seem to be above BSP 80% of the time!
so for example I back at 2.28 - BSP was 2.24
I know there is no strict answer, but I wonder when you consider commission and BSP not always being the true value, what people think a rough ballpark would be to profit long term? Also, I need to check the times I was under value, if these are wildly more under value than the times I got over value. I suspect this will be the most likely finding in a bigger sample.
Beating BSP is a very good starting point. I doubt that any of us can beat it 80% of the time over a reasonable sample.Fugazi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:25 pmHow far above BSP to be sure you're making profit?
I've been analysing another failed method of mine (small sample, 30 bets). I have found that on cross referencing BSP and the odds I backed at, I seem to be above BSP 80% of the time!
so for example I back at 2.28 - BSP was 2.24
I know there is no strict answer, but I wonder when you consider commission and BSP not always being the true value, what people think a rough ballpark would be to profit long term? Also, I need to check the times I was under value, if these are wildly more under value than the times I got over value. I suspect this will be the most likely finding in a bigger sample.
You also need to consider the entire equation: 80% * (size of beat) + 20% * (size of miss)
As you are a beginner, if you're beating BSP by 80% you should get out of your trades at BSP and minimize your commission. It'd be very difficult to blow a bank while you learn.