Pre race horse trading

[Kai]

By instinct I just mean a culmination of experience, knowledge, discipline etc that is mainly aimed at anticipating opportunities, so can be honed as a skill

If OP wants some actual feedback from others I suggest to put a bit more meat on these bare bones one liner threads

Agree !
experience with practicing the right things is absolutely the best teacher .

I think you guys are getting the terms rational thinking and instinct confused, there is no place for instinct in trading.

Instinct causes losses in trading, it can drive you to make irresponsible decisions, such as when traders try to recover from lateral losses. Instinct is dangerous and the cool calm trader who follows a method laid out will prevail and those that use instinct will not.

Sure, unhoned instinct based on emotions like fear will lead to chasing losses and revenge trading which will result in disaster, since it's more about reacting

But if it's based off experience then it's basically a subconscious recognition of repeating patterns honed through market cycles, which is more about anticipating

The neuroscience behind it is relatively simple, you may not be aware of it but the brain has seen it all before so is able to recognize patterns, process information and make connections at a subconscious level

[conduirez]

Agree !
experience with practicing the right things is absolutely the best teacher .

I think you guys are getting the terms rational thinking and instinct confused, there is no place for instinct in trading.

Instinct causes losses in trading, it can drive you to make irresponsible decisions, such as when traders try to recover from lateral losses. Instinct is dangerous and the cool calm trader who follows a method laid out will prevail and those that use instinct will not.

Sure, unhoned instinct based on emotions like fear will lead to chasing losses and revenge trading which will result in disaster, since it's more about reacting

But if it's based off experience then it's basically a subconscious recognition of repeating patterns honed through market cycles, which is more about anticipating

The neuroscience behind it is relatively simple, you may not be aware of it but the brain has seen it all before so is able to recognize patterns, process information and make connections at a subconscious level

I think we are arguing the same thing really, it is the terms I disagree with, instinct is a feeling you have that something is the case, rather than an opinion or idea based on facts.

Not all the things we think are instinct, are in fact not instinct, such as "I am not going to touch that hot stove" that is not an instinct it is born out of previously learnt knowledge.

I would say, a successful trader using subconscious recognition of repeating patterns, is not using instinct, they are instead exhibiting analytical rational responses, to the situation.

[foxwood]

Read Kahneman "Thinking fast and slow". He distinguishes between autonomous / intuitive reactions (high speed instant non-thinking reaction / answers - System1) and deliberate thought about something before acting / answering (System2).

He cites 2 conditions needed for intuitions (aka instinct) to be skilled
a) an environment sufficiently regular to be predictable
b) the opportunity to learn the regularities through long practice

Skilled manual traders encounter those conditions daily and do not need to deliberately "think" - they can function quite well on intuition - in fact they also immediately recognize when they do need to stop and think which is even better.

Similar to the physical world like taking emergency avoiding action while driving - or dodging a punch in boxing - your mind just recognizes the scenario and takes action without thinking.

[conduirez]

Read Kahneman "Thinking fast and slow". He distinguishes between autonomous / intuitive reactions (high speed instant non-thinking reaction / answers - System1) and deliberate thought about something before acting / answering (System2).

He cites 2 conditions needed for intuitions (aka instinct) to be skilled
a) an environment sufficiently regular to be predictable
b) the opportunity to learn the regularities through long practice

Skilled manual traders encounter those conditions daily and do not need to deliberately "think" - they can function quite well on intuition - in fact they also immediately recognize when they do need to stop and think which is even better.

Similar to the physical world like taking emergency avoiding action while driving - or dodging a punch in boxing - your mind just recognizes the scenario and takes action without thinking.

I believe you mean Daniel Kahneman, he does not believe you can use gut intuition in the stock market, so it follows that you cannot use the same in trading.

[foxwood]

Read the book - page 240

[conduirez]

Read the book - page 240

Here is what he said at the World Economic Forum

"However, the stock market is simply too noisy and irregular for anyone to understand on gut instinct."

https://marcellus-us.com/story/nobel-la ... questions/

[Kai]

Read the book - page 240

Here is what he said at the World Economic Forum

"However, the stock market is simply too noisy and irregular for anyone to understand on gut instinct."

https://marcellus-us.com/story/nobel-la ... questions/

Uh, Sir, this is a Wendy's?

A betting exchange is a far cry from the stock exchange

Makes sense if we borrow ideas when we find similarities but not sure copy pasting the entire framework over it will fit

As useful as it is to scour books for insight and opinions I think it can be equally detrimental if you take every word at face value as gospel without forming your own opinions

[Kai]

I think you guys are getting the terms rational thinking and instinct confused, there is no place for instinct in trading.

Instinct causes losses in trading, it can drive you to make irresponsible decisions, such as when traders try to recover from lateral losses. Instinct is dangerous and the cool calm trader who follows a method laid out will prevail and those that use instinct will not.

Sure, unhoned instinct based on emotions like fear will lead to chasing losses and revenge trading which will result in disaster, since it's more about reacting

But if it's based off experience then it's basically a subconscious recognition of repeating patterns honed through market cycles, which is more about anticipating

The neuroscience behind it is relatively simple, you may not be aware of it but the brain has seen it all before so is able to recognize patterns, process information and make connections at a subconscious level

I think we are arguing the same thing really, it is the terms I disagree with, instinct is a feeling you have that something is the case, rather than an opinion or idea based on facts.

Not all the things we think are instinct, are in fact not instinct, such as "I am not going to touch that hot stove" that is not an instinct it is born out of previously learnt knowledge.

I would say, a successful trader using subconscious recognition of repeating patterns, is not using instinct, they are instead exhibiting analytical rational responses, to the situation.

Maybe, I try to use whatever terminology feels right and fitting, which I imagine is difficult at times even for a native speaker

But have a look at prodigies like Heathcote and Rebelo and why nobody can seem to replicate them, do you think they waited on a few technical indicators to perfectly align on every market, people thought they must have been "cheating" in a way

Even as an average trader myself I find the instinct/intuition useful to augment the existing trading framework

It's like a brain alert system if you will, similar to Bet Angel alerts, I think it plays a bigger role at (manual) decision-making level than we give it credit for

[hecojef928]

In my personal experience, I've often trusted my instincts to guide my trading decisions. When familiar patterns emerge, I rely on intuition and act. While this approach has shown some success, I've had trouble maintaining consistency over the long term.

Intuition can lead to some success, but without a well-defined approach, sustaining and comprehending this success becomes challenging. This inconsistency not only affects my performance but also makes tracking my progress difficult on a personal level. I'm not saying one can't rely on intuition alone, but personally, it's never worked for me.

[The Silk Run]

Pre race horse trading !!!! This is more like the movie Titanic or a victim statement in a criminal trial

If its that bad call Sam: 116 123