Discuss Trading Mistakes & receive Feedback

[switesh]

Thanks for reviewing it Mugs. All points mentioned taken well on board.

1) The trend on the fav was well started when the video started. There was no threat to it, everything else was drifting. You sat and watched it and hoped it retraced.

True, but if I backed it now at around 2.6 I would've lost my 'safety net' because the money was weak from 2.6's to 2.8 (only about an average of $40 at each price point - looked more like bot money or 'tick chaser') and if a big Lay order hit the market I would've been left chasing it out by 10 ticks.
Sure, as it turns out you were right in this instance as the steam persisted.

This means you pick up every little ebb and flow in the market and miss the stuff that is obvious. My message to you is "Less is More" - try it.

That's sound advice. I did miss the obvious.

[OnGoldWires]

Switesh,

I watched the video. First of all, I am not sure if I am at all qualified to criticise, because I am not a successful trader. I am a football punter dabbling in the horses because the season is over. So please take my advice with a Government Wealth Warning, but three things hit me.

1. I really don't think I could concentrate on 4 selections at the same time. I just trade one at a time. I believe the market is always keeping the overround in check so seeing the price of one selection does not inform you about another IMO and a tick at 1.5 is very different to a tick at 9.8. You might waste your time with a selection that doesn't give you a good trading opportunity, but rather that than trade poorly.

2. If you try to bet and the market goes down a couple of ticks and the bet remains unmatched you really need to think of killing because the only way it is going to get matched is if the market reverses and then you are going to go straight into red. I don't think chasing the price is always a good idea, but it is better than going straight into the red the instant your offer is matched.

3. Depending on what your profit/loss is like, I would reduce the stake. With a smaller stake you won't feel so pressured to cut your losses. Sometimes you can make the right decision, but the market feints the other way and you really need to have the courage of your convictions to realise a profit. I generally only bet or lay what I would be prepared to take in play and lose, but that is me. I think you also have to think about BF technical issues, etc. Obviously betting smaller means that I am looking for more ticks.

But like I said, I could be talking rubbish - I am still learning myself.

[L.o.S]

Would like to thank everybody for the feedback and Switesh for starting this thread, it's all good advice and I am taking notes!

Look forward to posting my mishaps

[redtra]

Hi Switesh
just to say thanks for a really good post, i am learning a lot from reading the excellent replies to your questions...being a newbie too, I can see why you are doing the things you do.

It's not worth me commenting on your video since I have not the experience or knowledge and could end up doing more harm than good!

One question I have , for the more experienced on here regards technical analysis, candle sticks and the like. I have looked into it and from what I can see, it all relates to financial trading...so the thing i've noticed in financial world...(which i know less about than pre-race trading!)is the figures go to 4 decimal points. The figures we deal with go to 2 decimal points. So, are the indicators not as reliable or useful and is there something else to take its place?

[James1st]

Hi Switesh,

I had a look at your VT this evening and it seems to me that you are "randomly guessing" exactly when it is a good time to enter a trade. Despite all the obvious advice to the contrary, you are still trying to pick tops and bottoms (multiple times it seems) and compounding your confusion and misunderstanding by adding another 3 horses into the mix.

Goldwires makes a very valid point that knowing what is happening to other horses odds is simply confusing the reasons why the horse you are actually trading (the fav) is doing what it is doing. Whilst a relationship exists between all the runners odds, that relationship is a side show because the odds of all the runners are changing concurrently and knowing what the other runners odds are doing is not relevant "in real time" for the favourite. As an afterthought it is possible to see that the fav drifted because the 2nd fav was being backed but you really don't need to know that the 2nd fav is being backed because if the fav drifts then you can "assume" that some other horse is being backed and its backing is of no financial interest to you.

Even a fundamental understanding of BF horse markets will lead you to a set of do's and don'ts but you seem to be ignoring even the basic lessons. In the VT you refuse to accept that Surf and Turf was being backed fairly heavily and every cycle (7 of) confirmed that the opinion of punters was that it was going to win regardless of price. You claim 3 times that you had "found" good reversal entry points but where is the evidence that they were good? How exactly did you decide?

In this particular event you layed a steaming Surf and Turf at 2.5 a long time before there was any evidence of resistance and a full 10 ticks north of its only possible reversal/profit point (2.3).

As intelligent, refreshing and captivating as your posts are, if I can quote from your own Twitter account

"Risk comes from not knowing what youre doing. Warren Buffett"

I know that this response may seem harsh but you really need to get back to understanding what make the market move and how you can tell when odds are moving, stalled or reversing. But more fundamentally you need to understand why.

[mugsgame]

Hi Switesh,
Goldwires makes a very valid point that knowing what is happening to other horses odds is simply confusing the reasons why the horse you are actually trading (the fav) is doing what it is doing. Whilst a relationship exists between all the runners odds, that relationship is a side show because the odds of all the runners are changing concurrently and knowing what the other runners odds are doing is not relevant "in real time" for the favourite. As an afterthought it is possible to see that the fav drifted because the 2nd fav was being backed but you really don't need to know that the 2nd fav is being backed because if the fav drifts then you can "assume" that some other horse is being backed and its backing is of no financial interest to you.

This is subjective. Personally, I want to see what the whole market is doing. It gives lots of signals to what is going to happen to the horse you're trading. I often exit and enter trades before any sign of activity on the horse I am trading purely based on what other runners are doing.
Obviously this isn't the only way to trade, you need to do what works best for you. We all have our own styles and I am not arrogant enough to presume my way is the only way.

[mugsgame]

Hi Switesh,
Goldwires makes a very valid point that knowing what is happening to other horses odds is simply confusing the reasons why the horse you are actually trading (the fav) is doing what it is doing. Whilst a relationship exists between all the runners odds, that relationship is a side show because the odds of all the runners are changing concurrently and knowing what the other runners odds are doing is not relevant "in real time" for the favourite. As an afterthought it is possible to see that the fav drifted because the 2nd fav was being backed but you really don't need to know that the 2nd fav is being backed because if the fav drifts then you can "assume" that some other horse is being backed and its backing is of no financial interest to you.

This is subjective. Personally, I want to see what the whole market is doing. It gives lots of signals to what is going to happen to the horse you're trading. I often exit and enter trades before any sign of activity on the horse I am trading purely based on what other runners are doing.
Obviously this isn't the only way to trade, you need to do what works best for you. We all have our own styles and I am not arrogant enough to presume my way is the only way.

[THENUTS]

For what it is worth here are some comments from someone that has been as frustrated as Switesh :

I find it fascinating the way that the pre off horse markets seem to get analysed to the nth degree of detail. I am a punter trying to convert to a trader ( not easy i can tell you with years of appalling habits ). The one good thing about this is that before i got behind a screen i spent years in the bookies looking at the price movements on the screen. Before you can trade the ladders tick by tick on Betfair you have to understand how the markets actually move in the real world. I say the real world because dependant on the actual price of a horse in the bookies there can be a wide band of ticks that just represents traders moving the price around very temporarily - the actual price of the horse does not move. In the video Switesh you move in and out of a trade with nothing more than using the " noise " created by traders rather than listening to what the market is actually doing.

I was losing badly for about a year before i realised that i had to start listening to what the market was telling me rather than what i thought the participants in the market were trying to do. the biggest change for me came when i started to listen to what Mugsgame was saying.

Instead of pissing about with multiple thoughts and financial based indicators i started to apply the KISS principal ( keep it simple stupid ).
Firstly understand how the market works. I can tell you from years in the bookies a hell of lot of the time one of the horses in the top 3 in the betting gets backed and stays backed. One or both of the other 2 drift.
Of course it is not this way all the time but it is a lot of the time.

Just using this principle alone and watching mugsgames videos has turned me from a losing player to not losing and before you start to win you have to stop losing.

Then you have to fight the psychological battle of maximising wins and minimising losses - but thats a whole different story - you have to be on the right side of a trade first.

A lot of these guys are premium charge payers - that makes what they say very valuable indeed - you just have to listen.

the most important thing to hear from the recent posts is - " less is more "

[switesh]

Thanks James.

Even a fundamental understanding of BF horse markets will lead you to a set of do's and don'ts but you seem to be ignoring even the basic lessons... ...You claim 3 times that you had "found" good reversal entry points but where is the evidence that they were good? How exactly did you decide?
...if I can quote from your own Twitter account
"Risk comes from not knowing what youre doing. Warren Buffett"

I think you hit the nail on the head here. I obviously thought I knew (or rather learnt) a thing or two in the year and half of nights spend watching this game, but it's quite obvious I haven't.

I know that this response may seem harsh but you really need to get back to understanding what make the market move and how you can tell when odds are moving, stalled or reversing. But more fundamentally you need to understand why.

Quite the contrary, your comments are like a much needed wake up call - just the thing I need. The tougher the better. I'll obviously have to re-think what I'm doing.

[redtra]

My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.

is it so you are first in the queue for having your money matched?

[CaerMyrddin]

Euler wrote:

My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.

You want to influence the market in a way that improves the chance of getting a match on your opening position?

[followthatcamel]

My guess is that you make them "take SP" in case of betfair crash.

Regards
Doug

[LinusP]

I assumed it was more to do with having a clear entry and exit point, so that the trade doesn't become a bet. Peter you mentioned this earlier this week and I have been trying to put into practise

[L.o.S]

I have a clear cut one for today already, runner in a race 20 mins ago steamed in the last 5 mins from 3.25 to 2.4. I had backed at 3.25 at the highest and layed at 2.5, and yet I lost £1.78.

I seem to be opposing trends far too much and I'm not sure why I've started doing this, it's absolutely stupid and not a positive strategy. It's a wee bit like a voice in my head saying 'the trend has went this far, no point joining now'. When in fact I repeatedly joined at 3.05, 2.86 and 2.7.

Not much of a question but any different perspectives of the real problem would be great. For starters I think I might be overcomplicating things, there's a trend, go with it?

[mugsgame]

I have a clear cut one for today already, runner in a race 20 mins ago steamed in the last 5 mins from 3.25 to 2.4. I had backed at 3.25 at the highest and layed at 2.5, and yet I lost £1.78.

I seem to be opposing trends far too much and I'm not sure why I've started doing this, it's absolutely stupid and not a positive strategy. It's a wee bit like a voice in my head saying 'the trend has went this far, no point joining now'. When in fact I repeatedly joined at 3.05, 2.86 and 2.7.

Not much of a question but any different perspectives of the real problem would be great. For starters I think I might be overcomplicating things, there's a trend, go with it?

2 of my biggest rules:
1) Have a reason to enter the market
2) Have an exit strategy

There is nothing wrong with opposing the trend, but you need to know why you are opposing it. Reasons like "it can't steam forever" just don't cut it.

The questions I want to answers to are:
1) Is the momentum slowing
2) What is it's price in relation to the live show
3) What is happening with other runners. Are 1 or more coming in.
4) If so do they have momentum
5) How tight is the book percentage
6) What is happening visually on course
7) How close to the start of the race is it
8) Where is it in the trading range
9) How big is the trading range

etc etc

It really isn't a case of stick in your money and hope.