2015 UK General Election
- superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
looks like i called that right!!!superfrank wrote:a '92 scenario could still happen if enough have got scared by the thought of a proper(ish) left-wing govt.
exit polls were spot on last time, not long now.
- superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Con-Lib maybe a good lay as Tories might not need them and some bad blood there from the campaign.
- superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
evens to 7/2.superfrank wrote:Con-Lib maybe a good lay as Tories might not need them and some bad blood there from the campaign.
The UK election bears a striking similarity to the election we had here in NZ last year.
In NZ, the conservative PM John Key was aiming for re-election, there was a great deal of uncertainty and many had abandoned the traditional parties. Many thought it would be close, but no, people came back to the incumbent in a big way and Key was re-elected with an absolute majority! (In NZ, Proportional Representation is used, where the number of seats each party gets is proportional to its % of the vote).
For political markets, I've really noticed that people tend to vote on personalities rather than policies. So in the NZ election, a major factor was that Key was much more likable than his opponent. A great tip for making money in political markets is to simply back the most likeable, affable candidates!
Miliband just wasn't a likable character in the way that Cameron was, and that's why Labour got smashed. Another rule of thumb is that in times of uncertainty, people tend to support the status quo. When you combine the basic likability of Cameron with high-uncertainty, you get a recipe for a resounding Cameron victory.
In NZ, the conservative PM John Key was aiming for re-election, there was a great deal of uncertainty and many had abandoned the traditional parties. Many thought it would be close, but no, people came back to the incumbent in a big way and Key was re-elected with an absolute majority! (In NZ, Proportional Representation is used, where the number of seats each party gets is proportional to its % of the vote).
For political markets, I've really noticed that people tend to vote on personalities rather than policies. So in the NZ election, a major factor was that Key was much more likable than his opponent. A great tip for making money in political markets is to simply back the most likeable, affable candidates!
Miliband just wasn't a likable character in the way that Cameron was, and that's why Labour got smashed. Another rule of thumb is that in times of uncertainty, people tend to support the status quo. When you combine the basic likability of Cameron with high-uncertainty, you get a recipe for a resounding Cameron victory.
It sounds like your 'First Past The Post' (FPP) electoral system is past its use-by-date, and the UK should update to the NZ system (mixed-member proportional representation or MMP).Euler wrote:This is interesting: -
UKIP will get 3.5m votes and 1 seat, while the SNP will get 1.5m votes and 50 seats.
I mean the % votes between Labour and the Tories wasn't actually all that different either was it? It's just that Labour weren't translating into individual seats.
Again, I think who wins in politics has a lot more to do with individual personalities, rather than policies, especially under the antiquated FPP system.