In play Betting Diary Challenge 2022

[On_The_Edge]

What makes you so sure I won’t make money? Can you see the future?

Yes, we can actually. There are some telltale signs. I did this but I should have done that is a very newbie/amateurish thought when it keeps cropping up. The prices you take could be another reason people feel you won't make money. Also, you don't even keep score, an essential part of any challenge.

I’m happy to admit that I make mistakes and analyse in retrospect.

Regarding prices - perhaps you shouldn’t make uninformed judgements... A better questions to ponder...

1. Why didn’t I back Villarreal at 1.63 today when they played Elche ?

2. Why am I not backing Sporting at 1.41 right now against Vizela?

3. Why didn’t I back Arminia at 2.04? Why did I lay them twice instead?

Etc .

[Kai]

I think this is how most people actually try to trade football.

When I was learning how to trade football basically everyone I ran into was trying a scatter gun approach like this with no real math or science behind it, all just based on gut feel trying to see if they can spot some value somewhere and everywhere without watching matches or without fast pix, often no trading software either so no ladder advantage whatsoever, all just based off their own footy knowledge.

It's why various inplay scanner services popped up that people try and use to find these sorts of trading and betting opportunities.

[On_The_Edge]

I don’t see how fast pix help anyone in this day and age. Fast pix are only a few seconds , in most cases , ahead of betfair live stream. Not enough to gain any advantage in most cases, since it takes a few seconds for your order to be processed by betfair

It can be useful in some highly specific instances. For example when there is a potential penalty incident that you manage to spot ahead of majority of other people. But that’s about it.

And I’m specifically testing now bets inplay without watching matches. Since watching matches takes up too much time.

[Kai]

I don’t see how fast pix help anyone in this day and age. Fast pix are only a few seconds , in most cases , ahead of betfair live stream. Not enough to gain any advantage in most cases, since it takes a few seconds for your order to be processed by betfair

Fast pix can ensure a relatively even playing field, depending on your trading approach, you're not really expected to beat the inplay delay with them and print more money than the Federal Reserve. Are you using Bet Angel or any other trading software?

[Euler]

And I’m specifically testing now bets inplay without watching matches. Since watching matches takes up too much time.

So where is your edge?

[On_The_Edge]

Not using any software. What is it’s advantage in football, except a slightly faster way to execute the trades? And what is this ladder advantage that you mentioned?

[Derek27]

1. Why didn’t I back Villarreal at 1.63 today when they played Elche ?

The answer to your question should be because you didn't think it was worth 1.63 (or because there's a limit to how many matches you can analyse). Then you need to ask yourself, why didn't you think they were value at 1.63? The answer may be an oversight or it may be because you don't have hindsight and you're only questioning this because they won.

A good punter or trader will accept that a portion of all bets/trades will lose, it's part of winning so you don't have to question your decisions every time you lose or fail to win.

[Derek27]

And I’m specifically testing now bets inplay without watching matches. Since watching matches takes up too much time.

Do you realise you might be backing a team that's just conceded a goal at pre-goal prices because you're not watching the match?

[Euler]

And I’m specifically testing now bets inplay without watching matches. Since watching matches takes up too much time.

Do you realise you might be backing a team that's just conceded a goal at pre-goal prices because you're not watching the match?

Other than not using software to spot opportunities, watching the match, modelling it, using a sensible stake sizes, having a methodical approach and so on. I can clearly see where the edge is.

[On_The_Edge]

1. Why didn’t I back Villarreal at 1.63 today when they played Elche ?

The answer to your question should be because you didn't think it was worth 1.63 (or because there's a limit to how many matches you can analyse). Then you need to ask yourself, why didn't you think they were value at 1.63? The answer may be an oversight or it may be because you don't have hindsight and you're only questioning this because they won.

A good punter or trader will accept that a portion of all bets/trades will lose, it's part of winning so you don't have to question your decisions every time you lose or fail to win.

My questions were rhetorical. I wasn’t questioning those decisions. Villarreal lost by by the way.

Only an idiot would not realise whether he’s backing a team at pre goal prices that has just conceded a goal . It’s not hard to check the bet fair price graph.

[Derek27]

1. Why didn’t I back Villarreal at 1.63 today when they played Elche ?

The answer to your question should be because you didn't think it was worth 1.63 (or because there's a limit to how many matches you can analyse). Then you need to ask yourself, why didn't you think they were value at 1.63? The answer may be an oversight or it may be because you don't have hindsight and you're only questioning this because they won.

A good punter or trader will accept that a portion of all bets/trades will lose, it's part of winning so you don't have to question your decisions every time you lose or fail to win.

My questions were rhetorical. I wasn’t questioning those decisions. Villarreal lost by by the way.

Only an idiot would not realise whether he’s backing a team at pre goal prices that has just conceded a goal . It’s not hard to check the bet fair price graph.

That qualifies you then.

You're missing the point entirely. How would you know a goal's been scored when you're not watching? There is a delay between a goal being scored and the price moving, obviously.

[On_The_Edge]

And I’m specifically testing now bets inplay without watching matches. Since watching matches takes up too much time.

Do you realise you might be backing a team that's just conceded a goal at pre-goal prices because you're not watching the match?

Other than not using software to spot opportunities, watching the match, modelling it, using a sensible stake sizes, having a methodical approach and so on. I can clearly see where the edge is.

I have watched plenty of matches, analysed them, etc. ... but what does software have to do with it ?

[On_The_Edge]

The answer to your question should be because you didn't think it was worth 1.63 (or because there's a limit to how many matches you can analyse). Then you need to ask yourself, why didn't you think they were value at 1.63? The answer may be an oversight or it may be because you don't have hindsight and you're only questioning this because they won.

A good punter or trader will accept that a portion of all bets/trades will lose, it's part of winning so you don't have to question your decisions every time you lose or fail to win.

My questions were rhetorical. I wasn’t questioning those decisions. Villarreal lost by by the way.

Only an idiot would not realise whether he’s backing a team at pre goal prices that has just conceded a goal . It’s not hard to check the bet fair price graph.

That qualifies you then.

You're missing the point entirely. How would you know a goal's been scored when you're not watching? There is a delay between a goal being scored and the price moving, obviously.

I am not necessarily looking to jump on the market right the second when a goal has been scored...

And what’s wrong with using an app like SofaScore to notify you?

I don’t contest the idea that watching the live match can be very useful in determining when to get on the market.

But there’s a flip side to that coin. Watching the match can sometimes give you a wrong impression about the teams / the match. From my experience the price can be more Important that the game itself

[Derek27]

I am not necessarily looking to jump on the market right the second when a goal has been scored...

And what’s wrong with using an app like SofaScore to notify you?

Exactly, you're not looking to do it but you will because you won't be aware of an on-target shot at goal and could be placing a bet on a time as the ball is heading into the net.

How quickly does SofaScore notify you? Surely the market will notify you quicker?

[Euler]

Amateur mistake.