Today's Greyhounds

[ShaunWhite]

Do you get any problems with 'Greening' bets not getting 'matched' resulting in a 'loss' for that market/event ?

Not sure about Memphis but even bets going into the sp pool occassioanlly aren't matched on the dogs because the pool is small. Any liability you get stuck with wins/loses at the expected rate so it makes no difference to the medium/long term pl.

[Bobajob]

Do you get any problems with 'Greening' bets not getting 'matched' resulting in a 'loss' for that market/event ?

Not sure about Memphis but even bets going into the sp pool occassioanlly aren't matched on the dogs because the pool is small. Any liability you get stuck with wins/loses at the expected rate so it makes no difference to the medium/long term pl.

Are you placing 'Back' and 'Lay' bets on multiple selections in an event or just one selection ?

[ShaunWhite]

Are you placing 'Back' and 'Lay' bets on multiple selections in an event or just one selection ?

Avg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.

[Bobajob]

Are you placing 'Back' and 'Lay' bets on multiple selections in an event or just one selection ?

Avg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.

[foxwood]

Avg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.

Can you explain in detail the timing and criteria you use for each back / lay / green bet please ?

Asking for a friend

[Archery1969]

Avg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.

Can you explain in detail the timing and criteria you use for each back / lay / green bet please ?

Asking for a friend

I might be wrong but I highly doubt Tom is going to broadcast that anywhere.

[chasgeez]

Interesting I initially set out to do that but thought I could be more profitable with a bit of my own input. I don't have to spend to much time though as it only flags up 10-20 possible bets per day.

The addition of grey matter definately improves your edge considerably, but I replace that with brute force and settle for a (much) smaller edge. I do about 900 uk and aus dogs and horses a day by comparison.

Wow that's a lot, so far so good with my approach, I'm sure if I put the effort in I could have many more bets and be more proffitable.

[ShaunWhite]

900 uk and aus dogs and horses a day by comparison.

Wow that's a lot, so far so good with my approach, I'm sure if I put the effort in I could have many more bets and be more proffitable.

Good to hear you're making progress, scale helps in many ways and there's 1000s of dogs running every day, The main reason is the speed at which to accrue information. If you're just backing a few favourites it might take a month to do enough to prove anything but at scale that becomes 1 day. It also usually generates more commision in relation to the gross amount which can help to avoid future PC liability, and.... it also generates more Betfair points which result in better discounts all of the higher rate Australian markets.

Profit is edge * stake * opportunity. Edges are small and stakes don't scale very far so you need as much opportunity as possible. Every selection in every market is tradable.

[iggypop37]

FOR LAYERS

After a pretty appalling period where favs seemed to win with depressing regularity in the UK dogs, I've noticed (for me at least) much more positive results in the last few days.

[chasgeez]

FOR LAYERS

After a pretty appalling period where favs seemed to win with depressing regularity in the UK dogs, I've noticed (for me at least) much more positive results in the last few days.

Especially if you were laying the heavy odds on dogs at Donny the other day

[ShaunWhite]

FOR LAYERS

After a pretty appalling period where favs seemed to win with depressing regularity in the UK dogs, I've noticed (for me at least) much more positive results in the last few days.

It's an unpredictable cycle that's persisted for years. Laying favs looks good so people gradually start doing it, that eventually moves the odds so it fails, and then people gradually move to backing instead and the same happens that side. Unfortunately it's not possible to predict, I've seen cycles take a month or 6 months going back over the last 6yrs info.. All sports are like that. Well that's laying everything at SP so as usual it's value vs SP that makes money if you do them all, or being selective and finding SP value

[iggypop37]

Just to pick this up whereas you would expect some natural variation day to day, track to track. Grade to grade etc you would expect these to more or less balance themselves out .

As it is, it's proving very hard, and lay prices are not the only criterion I use in placing bets, to be blunt I try to work out the possibility of some scrimaging too.

After some 14 years of matched betting, arbing, shop arbing, value betting etc,it just goes to show that any edge you identify gets eroded over time.

[Atho55]

Here are a couple of examples of how the time of day also makes a difference to the results.

Sunderland.png

Crayford.png

[iggypop37]

Here are a couple of examples of how the time of day also makes a difference to the results.


Sunderland.png


Crayford.png

thank you that is one variable i have not looked at yet

[Archery1969]

I do something like this on the dogs, offering the BACK/LAY prices in the columns to the right.

By product of that is I take the lowest lay price when applying it to Horse Racing and lay the field at that price or close to in BF price. Not all tracks though, there or 4/5 where it works well due to camera angles and distance to the finish line etc.