Trading Psychology : If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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Euler
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:39 pm

Here is a really interesting piece in the Harvard business review : -

https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-some ... hink-it-is

The next time you find yourself stating that a deal or other business outcome is “unlikely” or, alternatively, is “virtually certain,” stop yourself and ask: What percentage chance, in what time period, would I put on this outcome? Frame your prediction that way, and it’ll be clear to both yourself and others where you truly stand.

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:21 pm

That's pretty much the message that's in the much lauded but equally derided TitZ.

Assess your confidence and then assess your confidence in that judgement. The danger is the analysis paralysis caused by the potential vicious circle.

'potential vicious circle' ?
There's 40% chance of that I think, and I say that with 65% confidence; but I'm only 75% certain that the 65% confidence in my initial 40% estimate is right, but I am 95% certain about that. ;)

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jimibt
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:33 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:21 pm
That's pretty much the message that's in the much lauded but equally derided TitZ.

Assess your confidence and then assess your confidence in that judgement. The danger is the analysis paralysis caused by the potential vicious circle.

'potential vicious circle' ?
There's 40% chance of that I think, and I say that with 65% confidence; but I'm only 75% certain that the 65% confidence in my initial 40% estimate is right, but I am 95% certain about that. ;)
... taxi for White!! :)

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:38 pm

jimibt wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:33 pm
... taxi for White!! :)
Taxi, or a straight jacket and mogadons? :shock:

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ruthlessimon
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:41 pm

Euler wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:39 pm
The next time you find yourself stating that a deal or other business outcome is “unlikely” or, alternatively, is “virtually certain,” stop yourself and ask: What percentage chance, in a given time frame
K Peter, no more "I think it's more likely to steam/drift" in your videos, I want % likelihoods of moves occurring in the given timeframes ;)

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Euler
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:35 pm

Curiously, I can actually do that. But not that it would make that much sense to most people. I guess that's why this article resonated with me.

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ruthlessimon
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:31 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:21 pm
Assess your confidence and then assess your confidence in that judgement. The danger is the analysis paralysis caused by the potential vicious circle.

'potential vicious circle' ?
There's 40% chance of that I think, and I say that with 65% confidence; but I'm only 75% certain that the 65% confidence in my initial 40% estimate is right, but I am 95% certain about that. ;)
This might be slightly off topic, but I think it does have links in the OP.

Let's assume we've "averaged" the likelihood of the volatility in a Handicap race (within a given time) - i.e. "The average range in this race is 17ticks" (i.e. an objective piece of info). I've always had problems with a statistic like that, because most of the time the race won't have a range of 17ticks! Not only that but the most interesting races have been smeared into that 17tick tick figure. Something might have gone 100ticks - arguably that should be the focal race of the data.

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:00 pm

Euler wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:35 pm
Curiously, I can actually do that. But not that it would make that much sense to most people. I guess that's why this article resonated with me.
Yep I'd keep that out of the vids, especially when some think it's all guesswork and most others are undeserving.

But anytime you want to do a bonus 'Director's Cut' with voice over for subscribers...... ;)

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ruthlessimon
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:19 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:00 pm
But anytime you want to do a bonus 'Director's Cut' with voice over for subscribers...... ;)
Add me to that list :D except I'd also want stops & targets mentioned along with the probabilities in the directors cut ;)

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:27 pm

Greedy boy. But not surprising from Mr Greed-is-good. :lol:

I guess some dogs beg for scraps and others will clean the plate when you're not looking.

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