Betfair trading strategies & systems

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Derek27
Posts: 23683
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:06 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:53 pm
ANGELS15 wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:41 pm
As you're betting odds on at likely odds of less than 1.3 you would only need the odd loser to wipe out your profits.
What really blows my mind is that he's looking for a bet with a 50% chance of winning and then backing it at 1.3 :lol:

If he can't see the folly you'd think his subscribers would!
In the place market you would have 3 chances to place. 1/3 = 1.33....or am I missing something.
He's talking about a 50% chance of getting placed.
Capture.PNG
He also says don't bet at less than 1.3 because it's "not a good investment". 1.3 is however. :lol:
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Dallas
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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:21 pm
Euler wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:40 am
I've renamed the thread in honour of it's new role.

One system I became quickly aware of was 'Peters £50 a day system'

I became aware of it because people kept giving me flack over 'my' system. Of course I had nothing to do with it but the name sort of implied I did. I complained to them and they added the word 'Butler' to the Peter bit. But I still get the odd message about it.

It is basically, lay the field and chase your losses.
More recently (if it's the same Peter) he does the same, but focusses on a laying the first horse to reach 2.0 or lower. If it goes on to win the race, then chase with the next race...etc... until you have a loser (win for you). This is essentially a martingale staking plan..we all know how that could end. Admittedly, it's a low liability method, so the losing run can be sustained for a little longer.

The aim is to make £50 a day from a £500 bank... There is an alternative staking plan, that reduces the stake after some losses (for you).

Yes, I have a .pdf somewhere too.
It had its own dedicated thread on here which Pete Butler tried to get removed - for obvious reasons
viewtopic.php?t=10723
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brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

That seems frightening!
TipTopTrader
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Dallas wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:46 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:21 pm
Euler wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:40 am
I've renamed the thread in honour of it's new role.

One system I became quickly aware of was 'Peters £50 a day system'

I became aware of it because people kept giving me flack over 'my' system. Of course I had nothing to do with it but the name sort of implied I did. I complained to them and they added the word 'Butler' to the Peter bit. But I still get the odd message about it.

It is basically, lay the field and chase your losses.
More recently (if it's the same Peter) he does the same, but focusses on a laying the first horse to reach 2.0 or lower. If it goes on to win the race, then chase with the next race...etc... until you have a loser (win for you). This is essentially a martingale staking plan..we all know how that could end. Admittedly, it's a low liability method, so the losing run can be sustained for a little longer.

The aim is to make £50 a day from a £500 bank... There is an alternative staking plan, that reduces the stake after some losses (for you).

Yes, I have a .pdf somewhere too.
It had its own dedicated thread on here which Pete Butler tried to get removed - for obvious reasons
viewtopic.php?t=10723
We could call it the reverse DOB bust or double the stakes!!!
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3221
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Dallas wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:46 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:21 pm
Euler wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:40 am
I've renamed the thread in honour of it's new role.

One system I became quickly aware of was 'Peters £50 a day system'

I became aware of it because people kept giving me flack over 'my' system. Of course I had nothing to do with it but the name sort of implied I did. I complained to them and they added the word 'Butler' to the Peter bit. But I still get the odd message about it.

It is basically, lay the field and chase your losses.
More recently (if it's the same Peter) he does the same, but focusses on a laying the first horse to reach 2.0 or lower. If it goes on to win the race, then chase with the next race...etc... until you have a loser (win for you). This is essentially a martingale staking plan..we all know how that could end. Admittedly, it's a low liability method, so the losing run can be sustained for a little longer.

The aim is to make £50 a day from a £500 bank... There is an alternative staking plan, that reduces the stake after some losses (for you).

Yes, I have a .pdf somewhere too.
It had its own dedicated thread on here which Pete Butler tried to get removed - for obvious reasons
viewtopic.php?t=10723
Thanks, interesting reading a 4 year old thread. I noticed in theB.A. automation section, a few people had asked for ways of laying/backing the first horse to reach 2.0, now I can see why. Hope they didn't get burned.
weemac
Posts: 1240
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Seems to go in cycles - everyone wanting to back the first runner to go below 2.0 (SO many posts from newbies asking how to automate it), and then gradually the cycle switches to the lay side, and so on ad infinitum.

I remember reading a thesis-type document which demonstrated along the lines that the first to back the odds-on (can't remember the precise parameters) about a runner in a race did indeed make an overall profit, presumably fast pic guys, course players or very good race readers. But you had to be among the first - it was no use following them in at lower prices, or even at the same price several seconds later.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:26 pm
I've never seen a single system sold that was correct in assumptions.
Personally, I don't understand the economics of selling a working system. 1 sale, & that buyer knows everything.... the educator has now lost all their value

Whereas, selling a discretionary strategy - we can muddy the water (take out the proper "quantitative meat") - & (rightly) take none of the blame, because it's always the fault of the buyer - it's always their psychology causing it not to work - not the strategy. :twisted:

Latter is a far better business model imho.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:55 pm
Whereas, selling a discretionary strategy....
You can sell a system (aka trading plan) that's supposed to be supported by discretion, but selling a 'discretionary strategy' on its own is essentially just selling freedom of choice. Systematic trading and discretionary trading are two different things imo although they can (should?) be used together. You might open according to a plan but managing your position is a response to that particular market not a blanket set of rules. Or I could be wrong about that but the dictionary definition of 'Discretion' is the freedom to make choices.

https://www.thebalance.com/discretionar ... conditions).
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