Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?
Don't mean to be rude but that is funny. 
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Hi Kai. Do You recommend only games with 0-0 HT? And If is 0-0,do You bet lay under 2.5 @1.3 or wait for lay under 1.5 ,but when odd drop at 1.5,1.25 or lower? Some advice at this strategy..
That was taken a bit out of context. I mentioned this simple strategy to Luke because he claimed to be good at anticipating goals and because he didn't know how lay bets worked, but also because his own strategy was about risking a lot to gain a little and this was the exact opposite of it.
I know what you're looking for but it's only a strategy, the edge doesn't come from it alone, it needs to be applied on the right type of game at the right time. The exact price where you want to lay doesn't really matter, it only matters that it has value, so in this case you would be looking for markets/games where unders are very underpriced compared to how the match is being played out.
Ideally you want an open game where both teams have an incentive to score and the unders are relatively low and are decaying very slowly. Likewise, the scoreline doesn't have to be 0-0, it's perhaps better when it's 1-0 because one team has to start chasing the game later in the match while the other can kill the game off on the counter, so obviously best to avoid time-wasting teams and situations.
I know what you're looking for but it's only a strategy, the edge doesn't come from it alone, it needs to be applied on the right type of game at the right time. The exact price where you want to lay doesn't really matter, it only matters that it has value, so in this case you would be looking for markets/games where unders are very underpriced compared to how the match is being played out.
Ideally you want an open game where both teams have an incentive to score and the unders are relatively low and are decaying very slowly. Likewise, the scoreline doesn't have to be 0-0, it's perhaps better when it's 1-0 because one team has to start chasing the game later in the match while the other can kill the game off on the counter, so obviously best to avoid time-wasting teams and situations.
Well, that's football trading
Try and only catch just one goal and look for a cheap decent swing in a reasonable timeframe, forget jackpots with catching 2-3 goals, can play around with that later if you get the approach working for you.
It's similar to the strategy that Peter posted the other day, pay close attention to how he framed the trade to ensure that he was betting/trading with an edge and with a positive expected value (+EV) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIdHnjxNWb0&t=
Most stats are pointless, 365 app can show you 10 shots on target, doesn't mean anything. I can have 10 shots on target from 30 yards out, it's just stimulating people to bet... there is a video explaining this done by Peter. I think Kai explained the rest pretty well but my bit of advice is not to bet/trade based on app stats alone.
I think it's important that you form your own opinions based on trial and error, whilst using the forum in general and Peter's videos as guidelines. Second half produces more goals so makes sense to look for goals there. By framing your trade you decide whether you want to catch a goal within a certain timeframe, or you just want to catch any goal no matter how late.
Like James said, Sofascore momentum graph is a great tool but it can be sometimes misleading as much as normal stats, even the worst teams can withstand a ton of pressure if they organize a bit and if the other team is struggling to create clear cut chances.
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andrew1112
- Posts: 33
- Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:29 pm
Hi i think i get the adjust of what your trying to say
am i right in saying your trading out to early is that for 100% of the stake
this is how i do over 2.5 i drip my money in the market so split my stake into 4 parts and then feed it gradually into the market
once a goal is scored i do nothing when 2 goals have been scored i then remove my loss (if i think another goal will be scored) or i ensure i make a small gain if no other goals are scored and make a nice profit if another goal is scored
whilst your beating yourself up though your still making a profit so its not all bad kust tweek your exit strategy a little
am i right in saying your trading out to early is that for 100% of the stake
this is how i do over 2.5 i drip my money in the market so split my stake into 4 parts and then feed it gradually into the market
once a goal is scored i do nothing when 2 goals have been scored i then remove my loss (if i think another goal will be scored) or i ensure i make a small gain if no other goals are scored and make a nice profit if another goal is scored
whilst your beating yourself up though your still making a profit so its not all bad kust tweek your exit strategy a little