The above strongly indicates that T2 is the fastest dog with a time difference of 0.14. Our original selection is the 5th slowest!!!!
Be interesting to see which one actually shortens in price, will it be T4 or T2.
Looking on TF, T2 has 5 stars and 9/4 forecast odds, T4 has 1 star, not in the top 3 pick with 19/2 forecast odds.
So, there looks like there is an obvious flaw just using SL data.
Loving all this number crunching stuff.
morning... yes, it looks like the Avg (TRUE) in your data is doing a similar more detailed average. I'd imagine that that column may be looking at the average across the runner, for the distance over a 6 month period. Perhaps when you further investigate how the last 5 times average out, you could change the value of Avg(TRUE) to reflect the best fit. That way, you've still got the original concept in place (Avg (BELA)), plus the new better!?! informed approach.
The above strongly indicates that T2 is the fastest dog with a time difference of 0.14. Our original selection is the 5th slowest!!!!
Be interesting to see which one actually shortens in price, will it be T4 or T2.
Looking on TF, T2 has 5 stars and 9/4 forecast odds, T4 has 1 star, not in the top 3 pick with 19/2 forecast odds.
So, there looks like there is an obvious flaw just using SL data.
Loving all this number crunching stuff.
All interesting stuff.
My input/output, comes up a little different. If T5 can ping the lids and maintain a clear run, it should have enough on speed/class to hold on. In my view, it also seems unpenalised by the grader. A dutch with T6 (running on) would be my view overall.
T2 not too far behind as Timeform seeding gives T2, I like the write ups confirming the forecast style of running.
T1 would be a Lay selection, poorer speed/class and poor starter to boot. A dutch Lay with T3 would be my view.
PB12.26.GIF
TF.GIF
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Here's today's scrape, not sure this is a 99% accurate method Archery stated in his OP
12:09 Henlow Thu 23 January 2020,5. Rascal, class A7, time difference 0.11
12:31 Central Park Thu 23 January 2020,4. Balistic Johnny, class A2, time difference 0.11
12:54 Henlow Thu 23 January 2020,3. Final Mustard, class A5, time difference 0.13
13:12 Perry Barr Thu 23 January 2020,6. Ballybride Billy, class A5, time difference 0.12
13:31 Central Park Thu 23 January 2020,6. Mi Novia, class A1, time difference 0.21
13:39 Henlow Thu 23 January 2020,3. Easy Played, class A8, time difference 0.21
13:57 Henlow Thu 23 January 2020,6. Roxy, class A6, time difference 0.15
14:22 Crayford Thu 23 January 2020,3. Kid Cowboy, class A2, time difference 0.13
15:07 Sheffield Thu 23 January 2020,4. Swift Perplex, class A4, time difference 0.34
15:11 Romford Thu 23 January 2020,3. Butterbridgelulu, class A5, time difference 0.16
15:39 Crayford Thu 23 January 2020,6. Trade Monk, class A5, time difference 0.18
15:59 Crayford Thu 23 January 2020,3. Cleverly Carole, class A8, time difference 0.1
16:39 Crayford Thu 23 January 2020,3. Long Spell, class A9, time difference 0.17
17:37 Crayford Thu 23 January 2020,5. Popular Prince, class A5, time difference 0.19
17:39 Sheffield Thu 23 January 2020,4. Rewind Eileen, class A8, time difference 0.2
18:02 Romford Thu 23 January 2020,6. Sneezys Hawk, class A6, time difference 0.1
18:27 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,4. Annies Buddy, class A5, time difference 0.16
18:47 Yarmouth Thu 23 January 2020,6. Corcass Liberty, class A5, time difference 0.23
18:49 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,6. Relentless Joey, class A6, time difference 0.23
19:07 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,5. Record Malbec, class A6, time difference 0.19
19:17 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,2. Nil Satis Bally, class A6, time difference 0.19
19:19 Yarmouth Thu 23 January 2020,5. Flip The Tyre, class A1, time difference 0.19
19:33 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,3. In The Loop, class OR, time difference 0.16
19:42 Newcastle Thu 23 January 2020,1. Crooks Gooch, class A3, time difference 0.11
20:06 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,6. Vics Charm, class OR, time difference 0.15
20:21 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,4. Droopys Addition, class OR, time difference 0.56
20:23 Yarmouth Thu 23 January 2020,5. Curley Whit, class A3, time difference 0.15
20:42 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,1. Lemon Wesley, class A1, time difference 0.15
20:57 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,4. Greenhill Jack, class A1, time difference 0.1
21:06 Yarmouth Thu 23 January 2020,2. Waveney Landy, class A7, time difference 0.13
21:08 Hove Thu 23 January 2020,2. Cynthias Gift, class OR, time difference 0.24
21:14 Newcastle Thu 23 January 2020,3. Farloe Autumn, class A5, time difference 0.13
21:16 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,2. Skipalong Max, class A3, time difference 0.15
21:47 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,2. Greenhill Dee, class A2, time difference 0.3
22:00 Monmore Thu 23 January 2020,1. Relentless Pal, class A1, time difference 0.16
Based on my new selection method these are my BTL (28) picks for today:
3 Cashen Kasai
3 Autumn Helen
4 Final Elaine
4 Autumn Epona
2 Floral Print
1 Arterbury
3 Ciarans Girl
4 Only One Dolly
4 Swift Perplex
6 Pennys Papineau
3 Eskes Jewel
3 Rathcoole Ella
5 Dognor Roxie
4 Airport Storm
6 Amigo Valley
2 Nil Satis Bally
5 Flip The Tyre
4 Antigua Sands
6 Uncle Sim
6 Punk Rock Hazel
5 Ardera Dazler
4 Swift Trillion
4 Droopys Addition
1 Bedlington Boy
3 Surfer Girl
2 Waveney Landy
5 Deeteedee Slider
2 Swift Tori
Based on my new selection method these are my LTB (38) picks for today:
6 Noirs Cherry
3 Puckane Ascot
5 Parkers Princess
6 Masons Magic
3 Bacchus
3 Maries Band
3 Blazeaway Elsie
2 Headleys Echo
2 Cushie Be Fast
4 Burnt Oak Bella
4 Tails Of Milan
6 Black Sparkle
3 Bonzo Legend
1 Rough Belle
1 Pollyinmypocket
2 Riverside Ruby
4 Oscars Memories
2 Rough Hammer
1 Shaneboy Kane
1 Bambamhurricane
2 Gunboat Craxman
6 Iconic Captain
4 Moanteen Lizzie
3 Kilara Kisses
4 Blue Thrill Lad
2 Bloos Miss Daisy
2 Fearsome Kite
3 Summer Call
6 Fahrenheit Diva
5 Abitof Mischief
3 Blackrose Parker
6 Sporting Fortune
6 Safepac Waki
5 Artic Lightning
1 Rosaleda Jet
1 Malbay Farrah
4 Scullys Lad
1 Relentless Pal
I guess it'll take a few sessions to determine if the strike rate (and as importantly, the fill rate) is comprable and/or better than the previous version.
Based on my new selection method these are my BTL (28) picks for today:
3 Cashen Kasai
3 Autumn Helen
4 Final Elaine
4 Autumn Epona
2 Floral Print
1 Arterbury
3 Ciarans Girl
4 Only One Dolly
4 Swift Perplex
6 Pennys Papineau
3 Eskes Jewel
3 Rathcoole Ella
5 Dognor Roxie
4 Airport Storm
6 Amigo Valley
2 Nil Satis Bally
5 Flip The Tyre
4 Antigua Sands
6 Uncle Sim
6 Punk Rock Hazel
5 Ardera Dazler
4 Swift Trillion
4 Droopys Addition
1 Bedlington Boy
3 Surfer Girl
2 Waveney Landy
5 Deeteedee Slider
2 Swift Tori
Based on my new selection method these are my LTB (38) picks for today:
6 Noirs Cherry
3 Puckane Ascot
5 Parkers Princess
6 Masons Magic
3 Bacchus
3 Maries Band
3 Blazeaway Elsie
2 Headleys Echo
2 Cushie Be Fast
4 Burnt Oak Bella
4 Tails Of Milan
6 Black Sparkle
3 Bonzo Legend
1 Rough Belle
1 Pollyinmypocket
2 Riverside Ruby
4 Oscars Memories
2 Rough Hammer
1 Shaneboy Kane
1 Bambamhurricane
2 Gunboat Craxman
6 Iconic Captain
4 Moanteen Lizzie
3 Kilara Kisses
4 Blue Thrill Lad
2 Bloos Miss Daisy
2 Fearsome Kite
3 Summer Call
6 Fahrenheit Diva
5 Abitof Mischief
3 Blackrose Parker
6 Sporting Fortune
6 Safepac Waki
5 Artic Lightning
1 Rosaleda Jet
1 Malbay Farrah
4 Scullys Lad
1 Relentless Pal
I guess it'll take a few sessions to determine if the strike rate (and as importantly, the fill rate) is comprable and/or better than the previous version.
keep us all posted
Hi Jim.
Early days, like you say, dont think fill rate / getting matched on the BTL trades should be an issue because in theory we should be selecting the fastest dog in the race and i know from reading punters/gamblers sites that allot will blindley back them. Could well be a different story on the LTB trades though as they, in theory, should be the slowest dogs and therefore punters/gamblers should be avoiding.
The PB 12:26 T2 dog / race i posted earlier got filled extremly quickly and i was traded out with 1m and 10 seconds before race start time.
Early days, like you say, dont think fill rate / getting matched on the BTL trades should be an issue because in theory we should be selecting the fastest dog in the race and i know from reading punters/gamblers sites that allot will blindley back them. Could well be a different story on the LTB trades though as they, in theory, should be the slowest dogs and therefore punters/gamblers should be avoiding.
The PB 12:26 T2 dog / race i posted earlier got filled extremly quickly and i was traded out with 1m and 10 seconds before race start time.
I love it.
Cheers,
.. and, by the looks of the screenshot you posted earlier, you got on at 3.35 while there was still a rather large gap between prices (if that was indeed yourself!)
Early days, like you say, dont think fill rate / getting matched on the BTL trades should be an issue because in theory we should be selecting the fastest dog in the race and i know from reading punters/gamblers sites that allot will blindley back them. Could well be a different story on the LTB trades though as they, in theory, should be the slowest dogs and therefore punters/gamblers should be avoiding.
The PB 12:26 T2 dog / race i posted earlier got filled extremly quickly and i was traded out with 1m and 10 seconds before race start time.
I love it.
Cheers,
.. and, by the looks of the screenshot you posted earlier, you got on at 3.35 while there was still a rather large gap between prices (if that was indeed yourself!)
