To do it with Bet Angels automation store the p/l as the race is turned in play, then use that Stored value as your stake amount in your in-play rule/s
Scalp the Fav During the First 25% of a Race - Guardian Automation Bot
Going back to this seanShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun May 28, 2023 11:08 amThe next question is going to be 'why aren't my stops being matched'?... If you're betting below minimum stakes then it'll take over 2s for your bet to reach the market and the price will be long gone.
In general though Bet79, stops will smooth your variance but they'll cost you on the bottom line at the end of the month. They also break a golden rule which is betting decisions based on your PL when your PL has absolutely nothing to do with what the market is doing.
Im scalping gaps with my own bot on other markets pre off. It seems almost profitable but every now and then the price just runs away and my offset is unmatched.
Im a bit stuck really. By not using a stop loss, I expose myself to £-0.30+ when it runs away just to try and gain £0.01
But if i put a stop loss in thats terrible EV also?
An unwinnable situation ?
Last edited by Fugazi on Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
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Peter did a video on volatility recently that may be of interest to you.Fugazi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:47 am
Going back to this sean
Im scalping gaps with my own bot on other markets pre off. It seems almost profitable but every now and then the price just runs away and my offset gets unmatched.
Im a bit stuck really. By not using a stop loss, I expose myself to £-0.30+ when it runs away just to try and gain £0.01
But if i put a stop loss in thats terrible EV also?
An unwinnable situation ?
As an aside, what does your bet history tell you, backs v's lays...?
sionascaig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:47 amPeter did a video on volatility recently that may be of interest to you.Fugazi wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:47 am
Going back to this sean
Im scalping gaps with my own bot on other markets pre off. It seems almost profitable but every now and then the price just runs away and my offset gets unmatched.
Im a bit stuck really. By not using a stop loss, I expose myself to £-0.30+ when it runs away just to try and gain £0.01
But if i put a stop loss in thats terrible EV also?
An unwinnable situation ?
As an aside, what does your bet history tell you, backs v's lays...?
Just watched it. Surprisingly addresses most of what I was asking. I knew rapid volatility was good for maximising the number of scalps in a short period to offset unmatched offset bets. But hadn't considered how to find races likely to have smaller traded ranges. That could be game changing. From his video seems not scalping the favourite could see a smaller traded range, but then probably not enough action to make enough scalps to offset losses.
Hadn't thought to check ratio of backs to lays. Got a feeling more lays go unmatched so could reduce some losses there. But I guess theres a way i can capitalise on the ratio of back and lay matches
Seems to me if I am filling gaps, then at least one end of the gap must be value. Though probably not the one that gets matched..
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sionascaig
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And that is what an analysis of your bet history (profit) will tell you... (and hence the stop may not be necessary - if you are getting value that is),
I mean I assumed if I back and its shortened / lay and it drifts too quick for the offset to match then im not getting value. However. Maybe its not that straight forward. Into the analysis i go...sionascaig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:49 pmAnd that is what an analysis of your bet history (profit) will tell you... (and hence the stop may not be necessary - if you are getting value that is),
Had an interesting one last night with UK Racing.
A BACK Bet was placed on Hardy Fella at Ludlow, and it wasn't Killed when unmatched.
The result - I lost my Stake, and the winnings of the previous day were gone.
Unfortunately the power went out shortly after so I don't have any images.
Is this going to be a common theme though?
A BACK Bet was placed on Hardy Fella at Ludlow, and it wasn't Killed when unmatched.
The result - I lost my Stake, and the winnings of the previous day were gone.
Unfortunately the power went out shortly after so I don't have any images.
Is this going to be a common theme though?
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NotBothered
- Posts: 173
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am
you think about it right
we all want a scalper that scalps all the time
but the market wants to trade a range - so no point trying to scalp at the bottom or top because any mistake will see you lose 5 times your gain if not more as it will accelerate
Also we see the case that is not so simple as to just sell at the high because some runners will move through the high or low and not give you the chance to flip back without taking a larger risk ie no stop loss
what is the solution
Scalper can only take a position in lower or upper range -- but then it needs a setting for volatility where it monitors volatility over time 5 mins 430 4 -- and it can only take a position when the vol is not making new highs
Because all these automations you see here are too simple -- and its easy to pick one market and make it work -- but over 50 markets it will not work -- its deceiving that way ,, therefore I hope Dallas can make some of these things -- so that you can just add them to the automations as needed.
we all want a scalper that scalps all the time
but the market wants to trade a range - so no point trying to scalp at the bottom or top because any mistake will see you lose 5 times your gain if not more as it will accelerate
Also we see the case that is not so simple as to just sell at the high because some runners will move through the high or low and not give you the chance to flip back without taking a larger risk ie no stop loss
what is the solution
Scalper can only take a position in lower or upper range -- but then it needs a setting for volatility where it monitors volatility over time 5 mins 430 4 -- and it can only take a position when the vol is not making new highs
Because all these automations you see here are too simple -- and its easy to pick one market and make it work -- but over 50 markets it will not work -- its deceiving that way ,, therefore I hope Dallas can make some of these things -- so that you can just add them to the automations as needed.
Thanks for your thoughts.
I can't disagree with anything you say.
Time to move on though methinks and look at some other software, not that I'm necessarily thinking that other software will give a different result.
But I won't know until I try.
It feels like I have largely wasted most of the last 18 Months looking at Bet Angel on and off during that time, and I still haven't got anything that is even remotely looking like a positive result.
Maybe a manual Scalping course might give some positive results though.
I can't disagree with anything you say.
Time to move on though methinks and look at some other software, not that I'm necessarily thinking that other software will give a different result.
But I won't know until I try.
It feels like I have largely wasted most of the last 18 Months looking at Bet Angel on and off during that time, and I still haven't got anything that is even remotely looking like a positive result.
Maybe a manual Scalping course might give some positive results though.
There is only a limited amount of liquidity in any market at a given time, and anyone with an edge and profitable strategy to exploit that edge will be trying to get the maximum stake matched as they can, therefore every strategy will have a limit as to the stake size being used
This also makes it impossible to share profitable strategy's, and is why everyone needs to come up with there own and match it to the right type of market/s and have it trigger/place bets under your bespoke conditions/criteria - which only you are using.
If I were to upload a scalping bot (or any bot) that was chugging away using £150 stakes and making circa £400 per week, if another person starts using it it will only remain profitable to both if we both reduced the stakes to £75 to make £200 per week,
If a 3rd person started using it we'd all have to reduce the stakes again to £50 to make £133 per week each
and so on
If three people tried using £150 stakes that would be £450 hitting the market at exactly the same time of which only £150 stands a chance of being matched unless it ends up being a losing trade in which case all will be fully matched
Now have 100 people using it and that's £15k suddenly hitting the same selection at the same price at the same time
So everyone losses when its a losing trade, but if its a winning trade everyone takes it in turns to get there £150 matched - the net result being everyone using this bot now loses in the long term
It doesn't matter what software you use, to make a profit you need an edge and strategy to exploit that edge, the only reason to move to or use another software is if your strategy required an action Bet Angel couldn't perform - but as its the most comprehensive trading software available and can do everything all other software's can and much more its why people tend to end up using it as there chosen software at some point.
This also makes it impossible to share profitable strategy's, and is why everyone needs to come up with there own and match it to the right type of market/s and have it trigger/place bets under your bespoke conditions/criteria - which only you are using.
If I were to upload a scalping bot (or any bot) that was chugging away using £150 stakes and making circa £400 per week, if another person starts using it it will only remain profitable to both if we both reduced the stakes to £75 to make £200 per week,
If a 3rd person started using it we'd all have to reduce the stakes again to £50 to make £133 per week each
and so on
If three people tried using £150 stakes that would be £450 hitting the market at exactly the same time of which only £150 stands a chance of being matched unless it ends up being a losing trade in which case all will be fully matched
Now have 100 people using it and that's £15k suddenly hitting the same selection at the same price at the same time
So everyone losses when its a losing trade, but if its a winning trade everyone takes it in turns to get there £150 matched - the net result being everyone using this bot now loses in the long term
It doesn't matter what software you use, to make a profit you need an edge and strategy to exploit that edge, the only reason to move to or use another software is if your strategy required an action Bet Angel couldn't perform - but as its the most comprehensive trading software available and can do everything all other software's can and much more its why people tend to end up using it as there chosen software at some point.
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NotBothered
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yeah it is not a software issue
it is the fundamental flaw is how the scalping is being set up and operated.
The trigger is not advanced enough - the filters are too few -- and every market is different -- race grades are different - prices are different -- money comes in at different times .. so each of these issues has to be addressed and solved -- to stop as you said why am I making so many good trades - but still losing ?
the answer is the bad trades are killing performance.
Once you accept OK : I spent 13 months working on this and have not resolved the situation : it is time for a new way of looking at the problem
So then the answer becomes -- how good is your programming -- can you capture the data you need to help solve these problems or not ? and have you correctly seen - what are the issues you need to solve.
only then can you turn around and say OK I now know what I need to do.
it is the fundamental flaw is how the scalping is being set up and operated.
The trigger is not advanced enough - the filters are too few -- and every market is different -- race grades are different - prices are different -- money comes in at different times .. so each of these issues has to be addressed and solved -- to stop as you said why am I making so many good trades - but still losing ?
the answer is the bad trades are killing performance.
Once you accept OK : I spent 13 months working on this and have not resolved the situation : it is time for a new way of looking at the problem
So then the answer becomes -- how good is your programming -- can you capture the data you need to help solve these problems or not ? and have you correctly seen - what are the issues you need to solve.
only then can you turn around and say OK I now know what I need to do.
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NotBothered
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+ if you look at the automation I uploaded changing the VWAP 10% to multiple time periods of different values
that would help you
what that file is missing is something Dallas did elsewhere -- where it is not allowed to enter a trade without there being some slowdown in the move and some anti move.
Because you will notice if you set it at 20% as an example - it will blow straight through at times - so it still requires further information for it to trade better
I did make the suggestion on how to solve all these things - by providing them as add ons - so you can them customize your performance better and solve each problem much quicker - but anyway seems many are not too supportive of this.
+ volatility filter would also probably help that one.
that would help you
what that file is missing is something Dallas did elsewhere -- where it is not allowed to enter a trade without there being some slowdown in the move and some anti move.
Because you will notice if you set it at 20% as an example - it will blow straight through at times - so it still requires further information for it to trade better
I did make the suggestion on how to solve all these things - by providing them as add ons - so you can them customize your performance better and solve each problem much quicker - but anyway seems many are not too supportive of this.
+ volatility filter would also probably help that one.
I think your ideas are brilliant on reflection. But I think no matter how many additional layers Dallas adds, you will always need to make more layers as the profitability gets bled dry.NotBothered wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:10 pm+ if you look at the automation I uploaded changing the VWAP 10% to multiple time periods of different values
that would help you
what that file is missing is something Dallas did elsewhere -- where it is not allowed to enter a trade without there being some slowdown in the move and some anti move.
Because you will notice if you set it at 20% as an example - it will blow straight through at times - so it still requires further information for it to trade better
I did make the suggestion on how to solve all these things - by providing them as add ons - so you can them customize your performance better and solve each problem much quicker - but anyway seems many are not too supportive of this.
+ volatility filter would also probably help that one.
I always thought volatility could be good for scalping with a wider offset, but turned out to be unsuccessful.