I know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
Recovery System
in earlier days, i thought i'd found a *good* recovery system. It was called something like *Pro System* (lol). What it did was basically a posh martingale in that it aimed at finding a sweet spot (dbl lol) for stopping once a target %age had been reached on a number of dutched runners. It did this by gently increasing (or in fairness, decreasing) the stake, based on the standing position.
I was quite naive at the time and was looking for a passive income without putting in the legwork. i know you'll have heard it all the time and i know you alluded to understanding martingale, but in truth, the foundations and edge really need to be solid in any strategy that has LEGS. therefore, propping up losers immediately identifies to me that the expected drawdown cannot be coped with in the strategy, therefore from a money management perspective, it's a no-goer. the whole aspect of money management is all about being risk averse (or at the very least, aware of the drawdown curve). Trying to recover lost trades is the opposite of money management. furthermore, if you think of each event as being completely unrelated, you then realise that just as event A could turn against you, so too could events B&C. In short, you could have a substantial number of sequential losers that the *system* has no knowledge of.
Avoid, avert and acknowledge!!
I was quite naive at the time and was looking for a passive income without putting in the legwork. i know you'll have heard it all the time and i know you alluded to understanding martingale, but in truth, the foundations and edge really need to be solid in any strategy that has LEGS. therefore, propping up losers immediately identifies to me that the expected drawdown cannot be coped with in the strategy, therefore from a money management perspective, it's a no-goer. the whole aspect of money management is all about being risk averse (or at the very least, aware of the drawdown curve). Trying to recover lost trades is the opposite of money management. furthermore, if you think of each event as being completely unrelated, you then realise that just as event A could turn against you, so too could events B&C. In short, you could have a substantial number of sequential losers that the *system* has no knowledge of.
Avoid, avert and acknowledge!!
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Yes… Recommend you filter through plenty of data and select which markets are suitable and recommend to use very low stakes. Not a get rich quick scheme but can easily book a holiday to Benidorm monthly…thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
Oh and have safety rules in place to prevent a bank disaster
It's really all or nothing, it either works or it doesn't. Scale-up as your bank increases and you increase your profits. Scale down as your bank decreases and in theory, you not only lose less but you can never go bust. Why people get such a simple concept the wrong way around is beyond me.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
Have heard people say they run it on high strike rate strategies, but I can't see the long-term benefit from the numbers side of things, and usually centred around feeling good rather than making money.
As you start from 0 and increase stakes the growth of a profitable strategy can be seen roughly like below (0%-100% of bank bet)
e.g. 0.0001% bank won't win or lose anything and 100% is guaranteed to lose
Upping stakes after losing from an optimal point just introduces an uncommon hemorrhage into your results.
Even if you limit it you're just introducing volatility for no long-term benefit
Upping stakes after losing from a prudent point (more left on graph) gives you more leniency but just means you're not making as much as you should be from majority of your results.
Main thing is to evaluate your strategy, identify your max drawdown & risk of ruin, then set your staking plan accordingly.
If you really wanna size up after losses and trade one style of results for another on the same strategy go for it but you should still be setting a max liability etc. as realrocknrolla has mentioned otherwise you're inevitably one nasty piece of variance away from busting
As you start from 0 and increase stakes the growth of a profitable strategy can be seen roughly like below (0%-100% of bank bet)
e.g. 0.0001% bank won't win or lose anything and 100% is guaranteed to lose
Upping stakes after losing from an optimal point just introduces an uncommon hemorrhage into your results.
Even if you limit it you're just introducing volatility for no long-term benefit
Upping stakes after losing from a prudent point (more left on graph) gives you more leniency but just means you're not making as much as you should be from majority of your results.
Main thing is to evaluate your strategy, identify your max drawdown & risk of ruin, then set your staking plan accordingly.
If you really wanna size up after losses and trade one style of results for another on the same strategy go for it but you should still be setting a max liability etc. as realrocknrolla has mentioned otherwise you're inevitably one nasty piece of variance away from busting
I pop back onto the forum to see what's going on......and the opening thread is about recovery systems
I guess they will never go away, because the biggest reason for failure in this game is psychology, a lack of discipline, and loss aversion issues
My advice to anyone going down this path is to simply trade better. That's the only way to win in the long-term, not to chase after red screens
I guess they will never go away, because the biggest reason for failure in this game is psychology, a lack of discipline, and loss aversion issues
My advice to anyone going down this path is to simply trade better. That's the only way to win in the long-term, not to chase after red screens
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1174
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
I'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pmI say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1174
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
I don't disagree, Derek. However the OP asked specifically for 'smaller loss recovery systems, and after several decades of trying them all on both roulette and sports, the one I've outlined is my favourite for the reasons I've elucidated.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pmI'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pmI say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
The fact you win a £1 every time two or more evens winners come in-a-row, means that you need 167 of those BEFORE the dreaded 15 losses in-a-row to double the banh, naturally. But that's not what the OP was asking.
CS
- The Silk Run
- Posts: 944
- Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
- Location: United Kingdom
I have used Fibonacci previously which is good when you apply it to churning systems but would only enable this if the system was striking > 70%.
I have recently been experimenting with a split stake, and insurance bets in UK Greyhound markets:
1. Split stake for 1.00 bet would be 50% on R1, 25% each on R2 & R3.
2. Insurance bet would be back R1 and R5 & R6, simillar to a Dutch BACK bet.
I have recently been experimenting with a split stake, and insurance bets in UK Greyhound markets:
1. Split stake for 1.00 bet would be 50% on R1, 25% each on R2 & R3.
2. Insurance bet would be back R1 and R5 & R6, simillar to a Dutch BACK bet.
- The Silk Run
- Posts: 944
- Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
- Location: United Kingdom
Oh, I have had some recent success with backing a single trap, in this case T5, but T3 is another good hitter. Same trap, every race with a minimum BACK price of > 10.0 using Martingale with SAW.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The issue with "recovery systems" is that you have to start so low to allow a stake increase, it just means you're never staking enough and the better it performs the worse that effect is. And they're illogical anyway, with unrelated events you might as well stake bigger in Dec to cover a loss in Jan than do it on the next race.
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- Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am
So advice is to play around but you'll be at breakeven eventually if youre lucky? E.g its a losing proposition Where is this detailed, i dont see how you can handle 15 losses in a row?Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pmI say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
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- Posts: 162
- Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am
Sorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pmI'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pmI say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.