If you want to cut to the chase odd, then sports markets are like most others. It's a game of supply and demand. Backers vs layers, buyers vs sellers. If there's more backers (sellers) than layers (buyers) then the price will fall, and visa versa.
Now that's a massively oversimplified view of what's happening but don't see the word "sports" and forget all the common sense things you know about how markets work. If everyone is selling apples then common sense tells you what will happen to the price. You don't need a trading "guru" to tell you that.
The rest is just about risk vs reward, how often and by how much you're up or down.
Any must read books in regard to trading?
That does make alot of sense. Thank you.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 2:21 pmIf you want to cut to the chase odd, then sports markets are like most others. It's a game of supply and demand. Backers vs layers, buyers vs sellers. If there's more backers (sellers) than layers (buyers) then the price will fall, and visa versa.
Now that's a massively oversimplified view of what's happening but don't see the word "sports" and forget all the common sense things you know about how markets work. If everyone is selling apples then common sense tells you what will happen to the price. You don't need a trading "guru" to tell you that.
The rest is just about risk vs reward, how often and by how much you're up or down.
- ShaunWhite
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Cheap I will take twoShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 7:28 pm. Send me £14.99 and you can have it in hardback.
I'm learning from watching Aussie Gold Hunters that the people making the easy money are the ones selling metal detectors. The trading world isn't much different.
You got a fair point.
At the start of the California gold rush of 1849 a guy called Richard Brennan owned a hardware store0dd wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 8:03 pmCheap I will take twoShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jul 04, 2023 7:28 pm. Send me £14.99 and you can have it in hardback.
I'm learning from watching Aussie Gold Hunters that the people making the easy money are the ones selling metal detectors. The trading world isn't much different.
You got a fair point.
Instead of heading the hills like everyone else he decided to sell them the tools needed to dig etc, one store became two then he opened a saloon, then hotel and eventually he owned most of what is now San Francisco and by the mid 1850s
Within 5 years he was considered to be the richest man in all of California despite never digging for gold once
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Agreed with I think Shaun it was, I found Trading in the Zone was 99% repetitive fluff to get across a (very useful, very obvious to some, not to others) central point - 'you don't need to know what happens next to profit'. I think that is the phrase he uses, not sure it's particularly well phrased, but anyway - musing on the actual meaning of it evidently sent many a reader down a better path as it has lots of fans, and I do agree with it.
I would say opposite to one earlier post, I did take quite a bit from Market Wizards books, I read them when I began on flutter back in 2001, I liked the variety of ideas both in strategy and psychology in there, I do also think markets of any kind are relevant to betting and finding an edge is similar in all cases. These books gave me a markets mentality.
I liked books that made me think more about maths tbh, Fooled By Randomness i read at a similar time is both smart, made me see the world differently, and pompous (Taleb) in equal measure. In general, would look to read quanty stuff, not the detailed maths heavy things, but stuff that makes you think about how to extract money from inefficiencies and what inefficient means when it comes to markets. Couple of guys to follow are Andrew Mack and RobotJames.. Mack has some books.
I would say opposite to one earlier post, I did take quite a bit from Market Wizards books, I read them when I began on flutter back in 2001, I liked the variety of ideas both in strategy and psychology in there, I do also think markets of any kind are relevant to betting and finding an edge is similar in all cases. These books gave me a markets mentality.
I liked books that made me think more about maths tbh, Fooled By Randomness i read at a similar time is both smart, made me see the world differently, and pompous (Taleb) in equal measure. In general, would look to read quanty stuff, not the detailed maths heavy things, but stuff that makes you think about how to extract money from inefficiencies and what inefficient means when it comes to markets. Couple of guys to follow are Andrew Mack and RobotJames.. Mack has some books.
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Fair enough I will have a look again at Market Wizards.
But will also stand up for TITZ. Just a random quote:
"the typical trader is obsessed with the outcome of a trade, the professional trader is obsessed with the process. if you make up your mind to trade for a new reason, the new reason being the acquisition of skills rather than how much money you can make, you will acquire those skills and find that the outcomes just take care of themselves."
And then his key principles. It's good stuff for the manual trader!
The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of
variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
The 7 Principles of Consistency:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success
and, therefore, I never violate them.
But will also stand up for TITZ. Just a random quote:
"the typical trader is obsessed with the outcome of a trade, the professional trader is obsessed with the process. if you make up your mind to trade for a new reason, the new reason being the acquisition of skills rather than how much money you can make, you will acquire those skills and find that the outcomes just take care of themselves."
And then his key principles. It's good stuff for the manual trader!
The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of
variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
The 7 Principles of Consistency:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success
and, therefore, I never violate them.
comparing apples and oranges ... coaches/ trainers achieve good results with CEO 'big money' .arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:57 amOh that's such a flawed argument - how good were Benitez and Mourinho as players?
A trader ' is a lone ranger ' .. years of preparation to stay ahead of the crowd for split of a second . a very small window of opportunity.
many Talk the walk but few Walk the talk.... institutions of higher learning will not make you a good trader ,
professors prepare you with a plan . BUT few enter the ring and get punched in the face , see how quickly the plan crumbles.
The message is very simple --
sport markets are largely efficient why are traders loosing money , even after consuming all the talks .
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But he doesn't teach trading, he teaches trading psychology and mindset, which have nothing to do with price movement. So if someone has skills developed in a different domain, they are useful to share and teach.decomez6 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 12:21 pmcomparing apples and oranges ... coaches/ trainers achieve good results with CEO 'big money' .arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:57 amOh that's such a flawed argument - how good were Benitez and Mourinho as players?
A trader ' is a lone ranger ' .. years of preparation to stay ahead of the crowd for split of a second . a very small window of opportunity.
many Talk the walk but few Walk the talk.... institutions of higher learning will not make you a good trader ,
professors prepare you with a plan . BUT few enter the ring and get punched in the face , see how quickly the plan crumbles.
The message is very simple --
sport markets are largely efficient why are traders loosing money , even after consuming all the talks .
Are you saying if a leading psychiatrist became a trading mentor they would have no value?
listening to real traders while observing the muscle memory at work , then assume correlation and causation are one and the same thing is a recipe for disaster !arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 4:47 pm
But he doesn't teach trading, he teaches trading psychology and mindset, which have nothing to do with price movement.
full of Half truths and enough rope to hang oneself.
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Curious that you've recommended Jared Tendler - someone whose work I also find valuable, but he is also not a trader so that appears to be a massive contradiction!!
Not sure if you've read Mark Douglas, but Tendler borrows fairly heavily from him and is clearly influenced by what Douglas is saying.
Not sure if you've read Mark Douglas, but Tendler borrows fairly heavily from him and is clearly influenced by what Douglas is saying.
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Also this is obviously incorrect. Where was the big money when Mourinho won the CL with Porto?
In order to be able to teach a thing, you don't necessarily have to be able to execute well at the thing. It's a totally different skillset and narrow minded to think otherwise.
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I'd agree. There's great exponents and there's great teachers. It's only very very rarely they're the same person. You get teachers that understand a subject but would rather teach and doers who couldn't teach their way out of a paperbag.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 5:50 pm
In order to be able to teach a thing, you don't necessarily have to be able to execute well at the thing. It's a totally different skillset and narrow minded to think otherwise.
Personally I think you only need the psychology stuff while you're losing, when you're winning it becomes less of an issue, and people think they've conquered it when in fact they just aren't having to face the demons they used to face. Skip the psych, learn analysis and ffwd to how to find edges. Taking a loss is a piece of cake once you know you'll get it back.
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Playing requires physical skills they didn't have, pretty sure even fatties can trade successfully if they know what to do.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:57 amOh that's such a flawed argument - how good were Benitez and Mourinho as players?
I never read trading in the zone once I saw all the failed traders back in the day touting it as the Holy Grail. At one time it seemed to be the standard reply to anyone asking for help on how to trade along with 'don't chase losses'.