Shit Happens

[firlandsfarm]

Yes ...

ShitHappens.png

You just have to deal with it!

[Anbell]

Yes ...


ShitHappens.png

You just have to deal with it!

I have many such charts. Any thoughts about what happened?

[Euler]

Always painful, which sport is it?

[Anbell]

Just for fun / in solidarity / here's one of many / 18 months:

image_2024-01-28_202203411.png

[firlandsfarm]

Worldwide Football ... automation strategy ... goals dried up over last 3 days ... have read others bemoaning a recent lack of goals. Will do some research in the next few days.

The disappointment is it's produced 100 points a month over the 3 months I have trialed it ... it may just be a sudden reversion to mean.

[sionascaig]

Maybe markets catching up with greater xG? although saw something recently which suggested not all leagues experiencing ever increasing xG like Premier League... (might have been on this forum but cant remember)..

[jamesedwards]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x60SXrCiQQE

[sionascaig]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x60SXrCiQQE

doh - of course it was !

[firlandsfarm]

Maybe markets catching up with greater xG? although saw something recently which suggested not all leagues experiencing ever increasing xG like Premier League... (might have been on this forum but cant remember)..

No, don't think it was xG related, quite the opposite ... I think it was brought about by some games where a single goal was scored in the first quarter and nothing further in what were expected to be high scoring matches.

[firlandsfarm]

Celtic v Ross County, that well known evenly matched game! Celtic take the lead in the 1st minute ... the xG is 4.35. I wonder how many thought "well that's it, no more goals in that game"! You are always expecting another goal and trade along those lines. How do you trade such an unexpected result. To trade it profitably you have to expect the unexpected!

[Headless Chuck]

Celtic v Ross County, that well known evenly matched game! Celtic take the lead in the 1st minute ... the xG is 4.35. I wonder how many thought "well that's it, no more goals in that game"! You are always expecting another goal and trade along those lines. How do you trade such an unexpected result. To trade it profitably you have to expect the unexpected!

Experience of watching football tells me that when there's a very early goal it often ends up as the only one, despite everybody expecting a resultant goalfest. I say that without having done any analysis and without having seen the result of the Celtic game, whch doubtless somebody is going to tell me finished 5-6, or something.

[Michael5482]

Celtic v Ross County, that well known evenly matched game! Celtic take the lead in the 1st minute ... the xG is 4.35. I wonder how many thought "well that's it, no more goals in that game"! You are always expecting another goal and trade along those lines. How do you trade such an unexpected result. To trade it profitably you have to expect the unexpected!

I suppose this is the downside to automating football, you do all the hard work pre-match and what you expect to see doesn't materialise more times than you want.

Kudos to those who can and try to automate football but it's something that just doesn't really suit my trading style, I have to be watching or listening to the game so if what I expect or modelled isn't really happening I can bail on positions, re-adjust or leave, all that said price is king for me.

Teams like Celtic don't offer a lot of value at KO IMO Possibly people see them as easy money, sticking them on accass, lumping on etc so maybe there over bet (I'm just guessing here as to the reason tbh). 5 out of there 12 home games this season have finished Under 2.5 goals and there average back price is around 1.42 just to highlight the lack of a value price.

[Kai]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I think statistics are very good at storytelling after the fact.

No wonder football commentators love them to bits.

[Kai]

Celtic v Ross County, that well known evenly matched game! Celtic take the lead in the 1st minute ... the xG is 4.35. I wonder how many thought "well that's it, no more goals in that game"! You are always expecting another goal and trade along those lines. How do you trade such an unexpected result. To trade it profitably you have to expect the unexpected!

Incentive to win doesn't necessitate scoring loads of goals.

Pep at City is happy to win 1-0 if it means they are in full control over the match and their opponent. He seems content trading away some of his own xG if this means his opponent has none.

You're also casting a pretty wide net there, with worldwide football!

[Kai]

The disappointment is it's produced 100 points a month over the 3 months I have trialed it ... it may just be a sudden reversion to mean.

So the premise of this expected goals strategy is that the expectations would not only have to consistently match reality but also exceed it?

If that is correct then I think that disappointment is the correct expected result, and the first emotion that it invokes

Do you know how many memes there are out there, about "Expectations vs Reality"