I don't know how Xg is calculated. Seems to me Kai is right. Basing a stategy on something like Xg is doomed due to the pack dumping money into it. So the value evaporates. Unless you're brave enough to take the contrary position. I'm just discussing. I really don't know either way.Kai wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:05 pmSo the premise of this expected goals strategy is that the expectations would not only have to consistently match reality but also exceed it?firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:27 amThe disappointment is it's produced 100 points a month over the 3 months I have trialed it ... it may just be a sudden reversion to mean.
If that is correct then I think that disappointment is the correct expected result, and the first emotion that it invokes
Do you know how many memes there are out there, about "Expectations vs Reality"
Shit Happens
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firlandsfarm
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Thanks for all the input guys but I wasn't looking for comment on guesstimates of the system. I just thought it might be helpful for less experienced members to see how quickly things can change and your system bites you on the bum. I posted it in the Psychology section to make the point if it happens to you then you need to manage it! But to briefly comment on some of the comments ...
@Headless Chuck: The match finished 1-0, nothing after that first minute goal by the far more superior team.
@Kai: It's not an xG strategy. I did say in response to sionascaig I didn't think it was xG related.
George Graham and I know all about 1-0 (to The Arsenal!
).
Trading/betting is about using statistics or a pin.
@Michael5482: I see using automation as allowing you to not sit in from of a screen all the time and allowing you to take positions you may not bother with manually and take them faster and more methodically without emotion. It is of course horses for courses, neither style is right and neither is wrong.
In this case the downturn was the result from some 700 bets ... The Celtic game was just the worst example.
@Headless Chuck: The match finished 1-0, nothing after that first minute goal by the far more superior team.
@Kai: It's not an xG strategy. I did say in response to sionascaig I didn't think it was xG related.
George Graham and I know all about 1-0 (to The Arsenal!
).Trading/betting is about using statistics or a pin.
@Michael5482: I see using automation as allowing you to not sit in from of a screen all the time and allowing you to take positions you may not bother with manually and take them faster and more methodically without emotion. It is of course horses for courses, neither style is right and neither is wrong.
In this case the downturn was the result from some 700 bets ... The Celtic game was just the worst example.
Last edited by firlandsfarm on Mon Jan 29, 2024 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wearthefoxhat
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Xg is a score given (by whom?) that judges how strong the probability of a shot is of being a goal.greenmark wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 1:58 pm
I don't know how Xg is calculated. Seems to me Kai is right. Basing a stategy on something like Xg is doomed due to the pack dumping money into it. So the value evaporates. Unless you're brave enough to take the contrary position. I'm just discussing. I really don't know either way.
If one yard from the goal line = 0.98, If on the half-way line = 0.01 (unless your Beckham or Rooney)
The more shots the higher the Xg. Likely better than the old strategy of Shots on/off target and assigning 0.30/0.10 to each one.
I agree, if everyone en masse, followed it blindly then there would no value in-play, but still a fair measure of comparing the final score v each teams Xg. Some websites create new leagues based on Xg and it does make an interesting comparison.
IMO there are other metrics on Sofa-Score, when combined, gives an accurate view of the score-line. We are all looking for/at data to find an edge, Xg is just another one.
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firlandsfarm
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Although some would say trading is about avoiding statistics
I realize you weren't looking for a discussion etc, that's why my comments were slightly tongue in cheek
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firlandsfarm
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When you have the data and think you know about probability of outcomes you may not be right, even a mathematics professor got this wrong at the time and argued against it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugbWqWCcxrg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugbWqWCcxrg
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firlandsfarm
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- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
Well it's not so much a running thread as a forum chapter ... I think it's important that (newbie) forumites can see that downturns are part and parcel of their experience here and that you need to be prepared for when a market/strategy suddenly moves against you without warning and mentally deal with it.
Actually, I agree with Kai's sentiments.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:07 pmWell it's not so much a running thread as a forum chapter ... I think it's important that (newbie) forumites can see that downturns are part and parcel of their experience here and that you need to be prepared for when a market/strategy suddenly moves against you without warning and mentally deal with it.
The only way to 'learn' in this game is from your own personal 'sh*t happens' rather than read about somebody else's 'sh*t happens'
