Well, scalping is deceptively simple, so I certainly understand the appeal!
But a difficult skill in reality IMHO, with a high ceiling, since it involves having to read the market and the order flow within it. Maybe it could work based on criteria alone but the hitrates wouldn't be optimal, judging by the questions below.
AI or no, would be a shame not to leave a bit of input since your post was so eloquently put together.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Market Selection: My focus remains solely on the 1x2 market, engaging exclusively during the pre-game phase..
Match Odds* market on the exchange, to avoid confusion. It's more than a pre-game phase though, the inplay market is a different beast. If you want to think in terms of phases then something like pre-teamnews, teamnews (where sudden price correction are likelier, with lineup leaks possible slightly earlier), post-teamnews phase (when most money should come in) make sense. Logically speaking it would make most sense to attempt scalps post-teamnews once market has roughly settled on a price and when more money will come in, that is how I usually traded this market in the past. But the queue may get bigger as well, so unless you're on something like 1k stakes minimum it may not even be worth it.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Volume Threshold: I participate in matches that have attracted at least £3,000 in matched bets, ensuring there's sufficient liquidity.
3k matched is very little, while liquidity is a term often used very loosely. Even when a market has a lot of matched and unmatched volume it doesn't mean it's actually "liquid". You basically learn this on day one whilst waiting for hours on that scalp. And if it doesn't even come it's that much harder to accept that fact.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Timing: My entry window spans from 24 hours to 1 hour before kickoff, aiming to capitalise on the final odds adjustments.
Depends on the quality of the market, but don't waste time using a strategy that requires liquidity on illiquid markets. Few years back you could show up to most markets just before the off and do a decent amount of work but markets change and the way the money arrives also changes. Just because something works well today doesn't mean it's going to work the same a few years from now, so a bit of foresight when possible is not a bad thing.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Bet Placement: I employ a strategy targeting one tick change, placing back and lay bets simultaneously, with the lay bet positioned one tick below the back odds.
If your market usually has a 1 tick gap between prices then this may create some imbalance in how quickly both sides get matched.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Exit Strategy: If my lay bet hasn't been matched by the start of the match, I exit the trade
If one side of your bets is getting matched more regularly than the other that in itself may be telling you something, about your market selection and your entry prices etc.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
Despite my adherence to this strategy, I can't shake the feeling that there's room for improvement. Emotional responses to unsuccessful trades occasionally lead to mistakes, underscoring the need for a more disciplined approach.
Always scope for improvement, providing you're applying the right strategy to the right market. Logic here dictates you are looking for minimal volatility and most accurate pricing, so this basically means Premier league. The more obscure your match the more inaccurate the price and the more often you'll get caught out when scalping it.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
Specifically, I'm questioning the optimality of my entry and exit points:
- Entry Timing: Is there a more strategic moment to enter the market, or is the timing less crucial than I currently believe?
Opportunities generally have clear time frames. Timing is everything IMHO, you can apply the perfect strategy to the perfect market but if you do it the wrong time you can make a complete mess of things. My own scalping or market making strategies worked better when I applied them in tennis inplay or football inplay and despite their differences the one thing they had in common was (good) timing.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
- Exit Strategy: Would adjusting my exit strategy to accept a one-tick loss, ensuring a minimal loss, be more prudent?
Accepting losses is very prudent indeed, and very necessary. Should be getting a relatively high strike rate in general, so accepting smaller losses should not be an issue. However, if your losses are disproportionate to your wins and far greater, then that's telling you that you were probably attempting to scalp the wrong markets.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
I've consumed virtually all the educational content available on this topic, yet I find myself seeking that additional, nuanced insight that only a community like this can offer.
Not sure how much content you would find out there on such a niche topic. When I actively traded this market I had to rely on trial and error, there weren't even BA videos touching on prematch footy out yet. Experience will eventually tell you which markets look scalpable, but a bigger question is whether you should even pursuit this strategy.
beginertrader wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am
If you could share your experiences, advice, or any strategies that have served you well, I would be immensely grateful. Your guidance could be the beacon that helps me navigate through these turbulent waters and steer towards a more disciplined, and hopefully, more successful scalping strategy.
From memory you may find some feedback here, I believe this was all exclusively scalping related :
viewtopic.php?p=221698#p221698
But I think I was basically saying that you shouldn't force a strategy on wrong markets, or that markets evolve, something along those lines.
Therefore simpler swing strategies may suit this market better, like a more recent example here :
viewtopic.php?p=337588#p337588
So generally trading around teamnews can be more efficient, around cup ties especially, the market doesn't always get the lineups right initially, but still has to correct itself.
Good luck
