Place odds calculation from win odds

[azfyazfy]

Hello friends I need your help regarding calculation of 3 places.
calculate from win odds.
Please see the image

Screenshot_2024-02-13-02-36-34-96_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

[Fugazi]

Statistical calculation will not get the true odds.

For example, Jockies on 5-1 horses may place little value on coming third and decide to pull up and save their horse for another day when they realise they cant win (well technically thats against the rules, jockies should always race best effort to the line)

A jockey on a 200-1 horse may really want that third place .....

[Derek27]

If you were spinning a wheel, the place probability would be the win probability plus the sum of all the straight forecasts where it finishes second.

But as Fugazi says, it won't strictly work with horse racing. Some horses always run a good race and will be thereabouts at the finish, while others either put their best foot forward or run a stinker, reducing their place chances.

[conduirez]

Hello friends I need your help regarding calculation of 3 places.
calculate from win odds.
Please see the imageScreenshot_2024-02-13-02-36-34-96_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

I take it you have been looking at Peters video and do not understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN2vEXH0aEM

[azfyazfy]

I completely understand 2 places calculation from the peters video but i more interested to calculate the same way for 3 places.
But I don't understand how to calculate for 3 places.
Please solve this problem.
Thanks

[conduirez]

I completely understand 2 places calculation from the peters video but i more interested to calculate the same way for 3 places.
But I don't understand how to calculate for 3 places.
Please solve this problem.
Thanks

I personally do not deal with place betting in events so will not try to work out an excel spread sheet, but to guide you, you will need to learn about,
,
Binomial Distribution, factorials and probability trees,

for instance if there were 8 runners and we were looking for the number of ways the first three runners could be distributed are

8!/5! = 8 x 7 x 6 = 336 possible outcomes,

you can now apply the probability shown by Peter and work out the calculations, it may help to look at bet angels tennis probability tree to see how probability trees works.

[azfyazfy]

I think the person who open place odds in the market can solve this problem

[conduirez]

I think the person who open place odds in the market can solve this problem

I was feeling pretty generous today, having a great day trading and this week I am flying to Florida for my first cruise of the year.

So here goes I have done some calculations for you, which I spent an hour on. To calculate an entree to finish in the first three in a five entree event.

I have tried to condense the formulas down to make them short and precise, I can make mistakes and one of our peers on here might easily point this out to me, and I could easily have wasted my time.

This subject is very complex and the spreadsheet you make will have to be able to accommodate the number of entrees, for instance there is 6 calculations to work out the finishing third percentage, with 5 runners, there is 55 if there are 12 entrees.

Anyway here's the sheet

Screenshot place 2 2024-02-18 222947.png

As I said one of our peers on here might see a problem

[azfyazfy]

Thanks for working on this complex calculation, with your help I did it.
Let see how accurate my work is i uploaded my worksheet

[ilovepizza82]

I think the person who open place odds in the market can solve this problem

I was feeling pretty generous today, having a great day trading and this week I am flying to Florida for my first cruise of the year.

So here goes I have done some calculations for you, which I spent an hour on. To calculate an entree to finish in the first three in a five entree event.

I have tried to condense the formulas down to make them short and precise, I can make mistakes and one of our peers on here might easily point this out to me, and I could easily have wasted my time.

This subject is very complex and the spreadsheet you make will have to be able to accommodate the number of entrees, for instance there is 6 calculations to work out the finishing third percentage, with 5 runners, there is 55 if there are 12 entrees.

Anyway here's the sheet

Screenshot place 2 2024-02-18 222947.png

As I said one of our peers on here might see a problem

Did you delete the file ?
Getting an error.

[conduirez]

I think the person who open place odds in the market can solve this problem

I was feeling pretty generous today, having a great day trading and this week I am flying to Florida for my first cruise of the year.

So here goes I have done some calculations for you, which I spent an hour on. To calculate an entree to finish in the first three in a five entree event.

I have tried to condense the formulas down to make them short and precise, I can make mistakes and one of our peers on here might easily point this out to me, and I could easily have wasted my time.

This subject is very complex and the spreadsheet you make will have to be able to accommodate the number of entrees, for instance there is 6 calculations to work out the finishing third percentage, with 5 runners, there is 55 if there are 12 entrees.

Anyway here's the sheet

Screenshot place 2 2024-02-18 222947.png

As I said one of our peers on here might see a problem

Did you delete the file ?
Getting an error.

Just looking quickly at my first figures I gave you again, I looked at the probability tree and for an entree finishing third, it does matter the order of the first and second and you cannot just multiply by 2 as I first thought, I will revise it later today, the formulas will not take long to change.

[azfyazfy]

I was feeling pretty generous today, having a great day trading and this week I am flying to Florida for my first cruise of the year.

So here goes I have done some calculations for you, which I spent an hour on. To calculate an entree to finish in the first three in a five entree event.

I have tried to condense the formulas down to make them short and precise, I can make mistakes and one of our peers on here might easily point this out to me, and I could easily have wasted my time.

This subject is very complex and the spreadsheet you make will have to be able to accommodate the number of entrees, for instance there is 6 calculations to work out the finishing third percentage, with 5 runners, there is 55 if there are 12 entrees.

Anyway here's the sheet

Screenshot place 2 2024-02-18 222947.png

As I said one of our peers on here might see a problem

Did you delete the file ?
Getting an error.

Just looking quickly at my first figures I gave you again, I looked at the probability tree and for an entree finishing third, it does matter the order of the first and second and you cannot just multiply by 2 as I first thought, I will revise it later today, the formulas will not take long to change.

Yes you are right i cannot simply multiply by 2.

[conduirez]

Here is the new calculations, sorry about before, they do make quite a difference.

Place prices 2024-02-20 105706.png

[azfyazfy]

Here is the new calculations, sorry about before, they do make quite a difference.


Place prices 2024-02-20 105706.png

File Not opening, it seems like file corrupted or not uploaded properly

[ilovepizza82]

Here is the new calculations, sorry about before, they do make quite a difference.


Place prices 2024-02-20 105706.png

File Not opening, it seems like file corrupted or not uploaded properly

Getting the same error.